The Oriole organization can achieve a lot in 2009, even if it is not reflected in wins and losses.
The 2009 Major League expectations are minimal, so the O’s need to take full-advantage of the commodity of time.
This can be accomplished by remembering, that in years where you can not contend -the best use of time is getting as much playing time as possible for the players that have a chance to comprise the future core.
I feel the O’s are off to a rough start with this, based on how they handled Liz, Albers, Pauley, and Penn this Spring.
The O’s provided Penn plenty of opportunties in the Grapefruit League, and he did not perform. That is not on the O’s, that is on Penn. Still, while I think Andino can help this team… I would have rather put up with Gomez as my Utility Infielder, and kept Penn.
Besides getting past the years invested in Penn… Penn is 24.. Just 18months older than Arrieta…. The O’s are unwilling to put their top-arms in the Majors now, so giving innings to that next group of players who could potentially help you later, was the most that could be achieved.
Obviously the O’s did not believe Penn had the ability to help them later, or at a minimum believed that Andino severed a better chance of helping now, and potentially later.
Myself, I would have rather kept the arm. 15 horrible Spring Training innings, is just that…. 15 innings. It carries a lot less weight to me vs health, age, and past-performance in full-season leagues.
That leads me back to Liz, Albers, and Pauley.
Liz and Albers do profile better as relief-options… but them getting regular starts to start the 2009 season, would have been a better use of time, vs how the roster has been compiled.
Pauley is probably a fringe 5th starter, long-relief type… but count me as one, that believes he would match the production of Adam Eaton, with the upside of being roughly 6yrs younger.
Simon has a power-arm that looked good in camp… I understand that… but he is also a guy that last tasted consistent success in High A ball in 2004, which Liz/Albers/Pauley have each achieved more, at higher-levels, more recently.
I think handing the ball to the Liz/Albers/Pauley trio as the 3rd to 5th starters, and giving them extended-time to definitively answer what they are, made sense.
Let us take an additional look at Penn, and discuss why it would be wrong for the O’s to let his lack of success, dictate how they handle their other prospects.
When Penn came to camp this Spring, the perception around Birdland was that the O’s had hurt his development as a player, by bringing him to the Majors in 2005.
Anyone that says that, does not know what they are talking about.
Penn coming up to the Majors at age 20, in 2005 did nothing to derail his development. He came-up, and had a dead-arm… got hit around a bit… it happens. In 2006 Penn was having success at the AAA level, when he had the appendix issue… which caused him to miss most of the 2nd half… the O’s brought him up late in the year, and he was crushed. In 2007 he had the elbow injury and missed most of the year. In 2008, he returned to the mound, after missing most of the past 18months of game action. People talk about risking a players confidence if they suffer set-backs… what about the confidence players get by having an organization that has the confidence in them to hand them the ball?
The other thing people have to remember, is that baseball is a game about dealing with failure. Many prospects have never been challenged on a diamon. I believe giving players a taste of adversity, is part of their development – and reveals aspects of their character.
You have to evaluate pitchers (and all players) on an individual basis.
2009 can be a very valuable year for the organization, if further development occurs with Bergesen, Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Pie, and Wieters. (Of course there are others… You want to see Rich Hill get 25 starts… you want to see growth in Jones’ game… you want to see Reimold stay healthy again, and produce in AAA)… but lets look at these 6 previously mentioned guys on a case to case basis.
Bergesen – He is described as a guy with fringe-stuff, and superior control. He had trouble with left-handed batters, and had limited K rates… You can make a case that the pitcher that was at Bowie last year, was the guy Bergesen will ultimately be. With that in-mind, him starting for the O’s by the end of April makes sense.
2008 Bowie -15-6, 3.22 ERA 148 IP 143 Hits 53 Earned Runs 11 Homers 27 Walks 72 K’s
Tillman – Turns 21 on April 15th… he is one of the premier prospects in all of baseball, and a player the O’s want to have under their control as long as possible. Because of his age, and prospect status… you want him to ascend to the Majors with as few as holes in his game as possible. His fastball command is an issue… there is no problem with him working on that for 1/2 a season this year in the Minors.
2008 Bowie – 11-4, 3.18 ERA, 135.2 IP, 115 hits, 154 k’s, 64 walks
Arrieta was a college pitcher… and he pitched for the US Olympic team… those are both reasons for him being a guy that should be able to move quick. After not throwing a pitch above the Single A level, he needs at least a half-season at the AA level this year… like Tillman, he has the same issues with fastball command.
2008 Frederick – 6-5, 2.87 ERA, 113IP, 80 hits, 120 k’s, 51 walks
Matusz – Keith Law said when he was drafted that it would be a mistake to start him at the lower levels of the minors, because Matusz’s ability to work backwards, and use his off-speed stuff will overwhelm young minor leaguers… I was hoping he would start at Bowie, but with him starting at Frederick… I hope he advances to Bowie by late May. If you want to see him Baltimore this year… then you probably need to have him up in August for 2-3 starts, as the O’s are likely to shut him down in September. Either way, he is likely to make the O’s rotation to start 2010.
At some point during this year, I would like to see the O’s basically comprised of the team they would like to be in 2010… but I have no problem with these guys not making the rotation like Porcello in Detroit…. Again, it comes back to the realization that you have to evaluate players on a case by case basis.
Pie – Turned 24, Feb 8th… people have written him off because he did not perform in 260 at-bats with the Cubs. The O’s obtaining him, and giving 450+ 2009 at-bats is one of the most important things that can be accomplished this year. Maybe he does not develop as a player.. But the ceiling is there, and that extended experience is something the O’s can provide him in 2009.
2008 AAA age 23 – 335 at-bats, 802 OPS, 96 hits, 20 doubles, 5 triples, 10 homers, 55 rbi, 11 steals, 7 caught stealing, 54 k’s, 23 walks, 287 avg, 336 onbase, 466 slugging
2007 AAA age 22 – 229 at-bats, 973 OPS, 83 hits, 9 doubles, 5 triples, 9 homers, 43 rbi, 9 steals, 6 caught stealing, 40 k’s, 19 walks, 362 avg, 410 onbase, 563 slugging
2007 & 2008 combined MLB stats – 260 at-bats, 615 OPS, 58 hits, 11 doubles, 4 triples, 3 homers, 30 rbi, 11 steals, 1 caught stealing, 72 k’s, 21 walks, 223 avg, 284 onbase, 331 slugging
Pie 2009 Projected – 270 batting avg, 12 homers, 60 rbi, 738 OPS, 320 on-base, 418 slugging, 35 walks, 140 k’s, 20 doubles, 7 triples, 15 steals, 7 caught stealing
Wieters – Ultimately nearly all discussion of 2009 development for the Orioles, revolves around Wieters who turns 23 May 26th. The O’s made the right move by not bringing him up to start the season. Keeping him in the Minors until April 17th, so that they can gain Wieters under their control for a full-additional year is absolutely the right decision.
If he is not the starting Catcher in Boston April 17th though, it will be a mistake. I do not want to hear talk about wanting him to develop as a Catcher (every pitcher that throws to him, talks about his maturity and ability to call a game)… I do not want to hear about keeping him in the Minors until June for his Super 2 status… I do not want to hear about the ‘benefits’ of him seeing 200 AAA at-bats… I do not want to hear, “Zaun is playing well, and Wieters is struggling at Norfolk.” I do not want to hear they will not play him at Fenway April 17th, so that they can play him at home the following week.
It made sense to gain the additional year of service-time, it makes no sense to keep your most talented player off the roster any longer than you have to. Getting Wieters a nearly full-season of Major League experience, is something you can accomplish this year.
Wieters 2009 Projected – 300 batting avg, 20 homers, 75 rbi, 850 OPS, 70 walks, 85 k’s, 25 doubles, 130 games, 520 at-bats
I am looking forward to this season… there is finally real light at the end of this long-tunnel… here is to a new Season, starting off right with a victory over Sabathia and the Yanks… and most importantly the development of the O’s future core.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.