Once considered co-favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LV, the Baltimore Ravens face a litany of problems as they find themselves on the periphery of the playoff race. They have fallen behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the division by a seemingly insurmountable deficit and also trail the once-hapless Cleveland Browns by multiple games. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s defense has fallen apart at critical times in must-have AFC contests. And more recently, the ongoing pandemic has hit the Ravens, forcing a significant portion of their roster onto the reserve/COVID list.
And while all those issues merit serious concern in their own right, the Ravens have also endured tremendous regression on offense that could likewise derail their entire season. The unit enters Week 13 averaging just 0.010 expected points added per play, barely in the positive and 22nd in the league. That marks a precipitous decline from the previous season when the team delivered 0.177 EPA per play, easily the top mark in the NFL.
Other advanced metrics bear out the offensive deterioration as well. Football Outsiders’ DVOA currently ranks the Ravens 22nd in the NFL in offense. The same metric had them rated No. 1 at the conclusion of the 2019 regular season. Even traditional guideposts such as scoring register the drop-off, with Baltimore averaging just 25.6 points per game (15th) after leading the league with 33.2 a season earlier.
But the difference between the Ravens offense last year and 2020 doesn’t require statistics to grasp. Lamar Jackson, the third-year quarterback crowned MVP less than 12 months ago, has not matched his previous effectiveness as either a passer or runner. Likewise, the three-headed monster of Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and J.K. Dobbins has fallen short of expectation while a deep and varied receiving corps has not replicated the big plays of a season ago. In no uncertain terms, the unit fails the eye test.
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The Ravens’ offensive struggles stem from multiple issues, one of which manifested before the season even began. The retirement of future Hall of Fame guard Marshal Yanda robbed the offensive line of its best player. The group endured further losses when All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley suffered a season-ending ankle injury on Nov. 1 while Tyre Phillips landed on short-term injured reserve with his own ankle problems.
Those absences would affect any team, but the Ravens’ offensive scheme makes coaching around them more difficult. The system, crafted and implemented by offensive coordinator Greg Roman, uses gap-based runs as the foundation from which nearly everything else in the offense flows. That approach works well when the offensive line consistently carves out running lanes for gains of five-plus yards on first downs, giving the play-caller a fuller menu of options on subsequent downs. But the battered unit simply has not delivered on early downs this season, creating obvious passing situations on third down and forcing more-predictable play calls from Roman.
And Roman’s offense doesn’t feature an extensive menu of passing plays, a practice that dates back to his time as an assistant coach at Stanford during the Andrew Luck era. The limited selection can make for a smoother installation process during the offseason and allow for players — especially quarterbacks — to more quickly master the playbook, and they build off the running game in an organic fashion when deployed correctly. However, those plays become significantly less effective when the defense knows when to expect them which has occurred with alarming regularity for the Ravens in 2020. Too many drives have seen them run their way into third-and-long only for Roman to dial up a play out of an empty set that fails to move the sticks.
But the passing game suffers for other reasons as well. Roman doesn’t do much to scheme specific receivers open outside of play-action, run-pass options, and use of jet motion. While the Ravens possess talented weapons in the receiving corps, none create separation in isolation on a consistent basis and rely instead on the play to manipulate defenders for them. But with Baltimore falling into predetermined passing situations more often, the passing windows that appeared so wide in 2019 have narrowed. Furthermore, as NFL defenses increasingly sit in man coverage — specifically Cover 1 — and ignore the “eye candy” of jet motion, the shortcomings of the pass catchers become harder to ignore.
The Ravens offense also doesn’t force defenses to cover the entire width of the field, choosing instead to funnel plays between the hash marks. Generally speaking, the middle of the field represents the most efficient area for the offense in the modern game, with many of the best teams attacking the area extensively in recent years. Yet, because Baltimore does little to work the boundaries relative to their contemporaries, opposing teams can position their defenders away from the sidelines and take away the statistical advantage the middle of the field usually affords.
Roman and the Ravens can only do so much to address the offense during the season. The personnel issues — namely those along the offensive line — will take time and an offseason to resolve. While Stanley will return to health next season, filling Yanda’s void might take years to fill given the lack of an obvious in-house successor and the cap and resource restrictions that will significantly hinder Baltimore and most of the other 31 NFL teams next year.
But the Ravens can implement some changes in time to impact the 2020 season. The jet motions that dot many of the plays in Roman’s playbook can return to usefulness by becoming more than just window dressing. Baltimore possesses the necessary speed at its skill positions to make jet sweeps a viable option on early downs. By handing off the ball on jets more often, defenses will once again have to account for those motions even when the play goes somewhere else, reopening passing windows and running lanes alike.
Additionally, Roman can reduce the number of empty sets he calls on third-and-long. While those plays remain a staple of his offense, defenses have grown accustomed to them and know how to limit their effectiveness. By becoming more varied in that particular situation, the Ravens can keep more drives alive.
But if Roman cannot make the proper adjustments or opts against them altogether, the Ravens face a difficult decision this offseason. Head coach John Harbaugh already demonstrated his willingness to change assists when the need arises such as the apparent forced retirement of defensive coordinator Dean Pees or the removal of Marty Mornhinweg as offensive coordinator to promote Roman. Harbaugh has the gravitas to alter his staff again given the urgency to maximize the time Baltimore still has with Jackson on a cheap contract.
Should Harbaugh opt to make another coordinator change, he would have multiple viable options to consider. On the current staff, quarterbacks coach James Urban has over two decades of coaching experience and has worked closely with Jackson since 2018. Urban also has ties to different versions of the West Coast offense and could add some flair to the current scheme, a process that typically takes place during the offseason anyway.
In the event Harbaugh prefers an outside voice with a background in the scheme, he could consider Anthony Lynn, the current head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers who worked alongside Roman with the Buffalo Bills. While Lynn will have no interest in Baltimore while he remains in his current role, another disappointing Chargers season has put his job security into legitimate question.
Landing in Baltimore with a chance to coordinate an offense helmed by Jackson could help rehabilitate Lynn’s image after a second consecutive underwhelming season in Los Angeles. While the Chargers struggles fall largely on Lynn’s shoulders, he also deserves credit for the team’s new offensive direction: an intriguing meld of Roman’s concepts with play designs and structure ripped from the offenses popularized by Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. That hybrid system has helped transform rookie Justin Herbert from a project several teams didn’t rate as a first-round prospect to the presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year for 2020.
If Harbaugh wants to lean even further in the Shanahan-McVay direction, he could pursue Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell. The 35-year-old has played the quarterback position in the NFL and has spent time in Washington under Jay Gruden coaching a scheme similar to the one run by McVay with the Rams. O’Connell, who arrived in Los Angeles this season, helped the offense return to form after a down 2019 season.
And while most NFL head coaches prevent their subordinates from leaving for assistant positions before their contracts expire, McVay has not held his staff back in the past. In 2018, he allowed Matt LaFleur to leave for the Tennessee Titans’ offensive-coordinator position so that the now-Green Bay Packers head coach would have the opportunity to call plays, a responsibility McVay handles himself in Los Angeles. O’Connell could become the latest beneficiary of McVay’s more permissive approach.
Still, none of those options can help the Ravens now when they need help the most. With just under a month to make a playoff push and a game out of the final AFC wild-card spot, the team needs Roman to address his offense’s shortcomings and prove 2019 was not a fluke.
Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning sports journalist and Pro Football Writers of America member. He has bylines at NFL.com, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, and other outlets.