Gunnar Henderson Makes Big Strides in 2021

Gunnar Henderson boosted his prospect stock in 2021, thanks to a solid performance across three levels of the Baltimore Orioles’ farm system. With the season in the books, his profile as a player and his probable timeline for reaching the majors are becoming clearer.

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Henderson hit the ground running at Delmarva to start this season, emerging as arguably the top prospect at Low-A East. In 157 plate appearances over 35 games, he batted .312/.369/.574 with eight homers and a 147 wRC+. By the time he turned 20 on June 29, Henderson was already five games into his tenure at High-A Aberdeen. Ultimately, he would play there for about two-and-a-half months before earning a late-season promotion to Double-A Bowie.

While the left-handed slugger didn’t dominate older competition to the extent that he did in Low-A, his production across three levels still amounted to a .258/.350/.476 line with 17 homers in 463 plate appearances. At his best, Henderson exhibits a patient plate approach and a good control of the strike zone that allows him to tap into his impressive opposite field power.

Some swing-and-miss tendencies were more apparent against experienced competition but give Henderson credit for this: Even in the middle of his worst slumps, he still found ways to get on-base. Indeed, amid a 1-for-31 stretch over his first 11 games at Aberdeen, Henderson still drew 12 walks. He ultimately shook off that slow start to raise his OPS to .755 at Aberdeen before his promotion to Bowie, where he appeared in eight games (five regular season, three postseason) to end the year.

The offense tells just one part of the story with Henderson, as his defense impressed at times. Henderson is surprisingly nimble for his size (he’s listed at 6’2”, 210 lbs.) and exhibits excellent arm strength, even if the accuracy sometimes leaves something to be desired.

Henderson was originally drafted by the Orioles as a shortstop in 2019. He started at that position in 61 games in 2021, with another 35 starts coming at third base. For much of this season, he appeared on the left side of the infield with Jordan Westburg, another top prospect who was drafted as a shortstop and spent time at both third and short in 2021. The Orioles development staff did a good job this season of ensuring adequate playing time for Henderson and Westburg when they were on the same teams and will have to do the same next season if/when they appear together for stretches at Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk.

Considering his skillset, what is left for Henderson to work on as he continues to climb the minors? Also, what is a realistic ETA for him to reach Baltimore? To address the first question, one priority he and the Orioles will have next year is to cut back on the strikeouts against more advanced pitchers. As a patient hitter with power, Henderson will always be somewhat prone to strikeouts, but the Orioles should look to boost his contact skills and slash the strikeouts.

Defensively, Henderson is showing a lot of promise. His size and how it will affect his range in the future does leave questions about whether he sticks at shortstop, but he is athletic enough to not have to eventually moved to first base. That, combined with his arm strength, leaves reasonable hope that he lands somewhere on the left side of the infield. Maybe there’s a possibility the Orioles explore putting Henderson in the outfield in the future, but for now they should make his development at shortstop and third base their main priority.

That ties into the next question, which concerns when he could reach Baltimore. Last December, Henderson was among the group of players that I attempted to project ETAs for in an article here at BSL. At the time, I took an admittedly conservative approach by stating that I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t reach the majors until 2024, as he was 19 at the time and had only 29 professional games under his belt. However, with what he showed in 2021, I’m more inclined to believe that he will make his MLB debut in 2023, with late 2022 an outside possibility if he completely dominates Double-A and Triple-A pitching this offseason.

If Henderson does reach the majors sometime in 2023, it would be quite the accomplishment for a 22-year-old. While there is still some development that needs to take place, Henderson showed plenty to be excited about this season—evidenced, at least in part, by the fact that he now appears on virtually every major ranking of Top-100 prospects in the game. In Henderson, the Orioles have an athletic, power-hitting prospects that needs some development, but shows plenty of potential.