As the 2010 MLB Draft approaches, I thought it would be interesting to look back a year with the O’s 1st round selection.
As we all know, the Orioles selected HS RHP Matt Hobgood. At the time, I was directly advocating the selection of College SS Grant Green.
Green is in High A Ball and has a very limited .672 OPS in 191 at-bats (.267 batting average, 2 homers, 9 doubles, 16 rbi, 12 walks, 46 k’s) While he has a .960 OPS against LHP (56 at-bats), he has a horrific .553 OPS against RHP (135 at-bats).
Hobgood is in Low A Ball with Delmarva.
He has made 9 starts and is 2-4, with a 5.05 era. In 46.1 innings, he has allowed 44 hits, 24 walks, with 28 k’s. He is getting a large amount of grounders, and holding hitters to a .251 batting average.
Of his 9 starts he has only pitched at-least 6 innings twice, and in his last four starts has not gone longer than 5 innings.
I’ll be very interested to see the progression of these two in the years to come, because I believe it illustrates a philosophical question for the O’s. As the O’s get ready to make their 2010 selection we will again hear the popular refrain of the baseball draft being a roll of the dice, and how you can not draft for need. For the most part I agree with that line of thinking. I understand that Baseball is not the NFL, or the NBA.
I also understand that it is Tampa that is running away with the AL East at the moment, but that does not mean the financial disparities of the Yankees, and Boston can be ignored either. As those two division foes have significantly more resources to be spending, they do not have to be as accurate with their selections as Baltimore. Or explained inversely, if NY and the RedSox bring guns to a fight, and the O’s bring a knife – the O’s have to be even more precise with their ‘weapon.’
So while I understand that Baseball is not the NFL, or the NBA, I do think the O’s will always have to be cognizant of the division they plan in. To me, that means that if the O’s have two players closely ranked on their board, they should draft the player more likely to reach his ceiling – even if that player has a slightly lower ceiling.
Green is performing below my expectations for him. Still, he could turn it on during the remainder of this season and force his way to AA to begin 2011. If he were in the O’s organization, and started next-year at Bowie; he could be positioned for a jump to the bigs with 1/2 a season of production.
While Hobgood can also turn it on, and position himself to start 2011 at Frederick, his path to the Majors is far more distant. While he of course has age in his favor (DOB 8/3/90 vs.. 9/27/87 for Green), I would still feel better with Green in the system.
The O’s can simply not afford to miss with their selections. Green may never progress as expected, and he might have been graded to have a slightly lower ceiling vs.. Hobgood; but I maintain of the two he is more likely to reach his potential. He certainly would be the player more likely to help the O’s in the near-term.
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.