Horrible Stretch For The Orioles; Quick Hits

If I say it’s been a horrible stretch for the Orioles, you might ask if I’m referring to the last couple of weeks, or the last couple of years.

Certainly that would be a fair retort.

For the record, I’m referring to the here and now, where the Orioles have last lost their last 6 in a row, and won just two of their last 15 overall.

As of this morning, the Orioles are 17-29 overall, which is a .370 winning percentage and has the O’s on-pace for a 60 win season.

Nearly 30% of this ’21 season is in the books. I think it’s time for the Orioles to reevaluate what they want to get out of this year.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Quick Hits:

• Matt Harvey has made 10 starts, and has an ERA over 6. He’s not part of your future, and he isn’t going to go on a run where you could possibly trade him and bring back a lottery ticket. Him continuing to get starts accomplishes nothing.

• Jorge Lopez has made 9 starts, and his ERA is 6.00. He’s certainly flashed his arm talent, but also shown he struggles multiple times through a lineup. Move him to the pen.

• It was a lost weekend for the O’s in DC, but Anthony Santander took advantage of it. The RF had 6 hits over 13 ab’s, in his first action with the Orioles since April 20th. He comes off the injured list, and he bats cleanup immediately in all three of these games. Probably says something about the surrounding lineup, but I think also says something about how Orioles Manager Brandon Hyde views him.

• Cedric Mullins had a .932 OPS in April, and he has a .707 OPS in May. Combined, it’s been a very productive 177 ab’s to start the year. He was on the bench yesterday before PH late. Very curious to see what his next Month looks like.

• Austin Hays has a .774 OPS so far, and he’s yet to have an extended hot streak. He’s crushing LHP, and struggling a bit vs. RHP.

• Ryan Mountcastle’s overall numbers look rough, but there has been improvement in May. Of-course the numbers pretty much had to improve after a dreadful April. He’s got a .723 OPS over 70 ab’s in May. He strikes me as a guy capable of catching fire. I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts up a scorching June. Either way, the refrain remains the same. You keep penciling his name into the lineup everyday.

• Trey Mancini has had a monster May, and left no-doubt that he is currently the best player on the roster. Between his shown health, and production, there will be multiple teams interested in trading for him, and the Orioles could expect a quality return. If there is a return the O’s don’t feel they can turn down, okay, that’s fine in my opinion. If they want to extend him, the Orioles have seen enough at this point to feel comfortable with that. My bet? I think the O’s announce an extension with Mancini during the All-Star break.

• I’d be pretty annoyed if John Means is traded. Finding quality Major League starting pitching isn’t easy. Wherever you want to stack-rank him, Means has shown at this point to be a quality ML starter who regularly gives you a chance to win. You’ve got him under control for years. I’d be looking at a deal which would buy out his remaining arbitration years and maybe a year or two of Free Agency.

• One of the things I’ve mentioned a lot is that the Orioles have the payroll flexibility in the coming years to make external additions to what they have existing internally. I’ve pointed to SS as an area where there is both need, and availability. While I’d still plan on making that investment into one of the pending Free Agent SS’s, it should be noted that Freddy Galvis has an .803 OPS. He hasn’t been a blackhole by any means.

• If the Orioles were supposed to be any good this year, there’d be more attention to the paltry performance received so far from Maikel Franco. He enters today with a .587 OPS. (.778 last year, .728 for his career.) He’s been unfathomably bad in May (10 for 71). He’s better than he’s shown. He figures to wake-up and find his averages sooner than later. That will help what has been an anemic offense.

• What are the Orioles doing at 2nd base? Ruiz was DFA. Valaika, and Wilkerson have been getting recent ab’s. Was Jahmai Jones on the verge of a call-up prior to his injury? Have to think that either Jones (once healthy, and with some AAA production), or Terrin Vavra (hot so far at AA Bowie) are close to getting some big league looks. Valaika and Wilkerson are fine UTI types, but can’t spend the remainder of ’21 giving them regular ab’s. Just not a good utilization of time.

• DJ Stewart has had 91 ab’s this year, with the majority of them coming with Santander on the shelf. He didn’t take advantage enough, though it should be noted that May was better than April. Feels like it is going to take an injury to Hays / Santander / Mountcastle / Mancini or a trade (Mancini) for DJ to again find regular ab’s with the O’s this year.

• Hunter Harvey appeared in action yesterday with AAA Norfolk. Dillion Tate is nearing a return as well. There are questions with those two, and Tanner Scott; but each has ability. I hope they can stay healthy the rest of the way, and that Hyde can regularly hand them the ball. And they perform or they don’t.

• Keegan Akin needs to join the rotation, replacing Harvey or Lopez.
• Zac Lowther got rocked in his one MLB start, and has had two ‘ehh’ outings with Norfolk since being sent back down. Once he has a quality start or two with the Tides; I’d be looking to bring him back up.
• Mike Baumann (rehab assignment has been moved to AA), Kyle Bradish(promoted to AAA), Kevin Smith (strong start at AA), Alex Wells (struggling so far at AAA) should also expect to get ML starts this year.

• Cody Carroll and Evan Phillips aren’t doing themselves any favors (Short Sample Size alert) at AAA of earning another chance to help the O’s bullpen.
• Either is Isaac Mattson. (Extreme Short Sample Size alert.)

• If Mountcastle’s struggles are the primary disappointment so far in this ’21 season, a close second is the struggles of Dean Kremer. Kremer has allowed 10 homers in just 34 innings of work. Only one start of 6 innings. I like him, I think he can be competent ML starter. Right now, I’m continuing to hand him the ball. But even in a year with no expectations, he doesn’t get unlimited rope. There are other guys (mentioned above) who might earn ML starts, especially if Kremer doesn’t start performing better. Have to note that 4 of his 7 starts this year have been against NY and Boston.

• I don’t believe in Bruce Zimmermann as a ML starter, but do think he can help a roster. Great performance in relief vs. the Yankees on the 16th. He should continue to get starts over Harvey and Lopez.

• Yusniel Diaz needs to get off the IL and begin lighting things up at Norfolk. Until he does that, don’t have to worry about where he might factor into the ML roster.

• DL Hall has 31 k’s in 16 innings so far at AA Bowie. He’s absolutely on-track to be on the Orioles roster at this time next year.

• Adley Rutschman has a .908 OPS over his initial 61 ab’s at AA Bowie. At the absolute latest, he’s the Orioles starting catcher at this time next year.

• Grayson Rodriguez needs to be moved up to Bowie sooner than later. He’s overwhelming High A at Aberdeen. 31 k’s in 18.2 innings, with only 9 hits allowed.

• Jordan Westburg was an advanced college bat. Starting him at Low A Delmarva is really slow-playing him in my opinion. He’s got a 1.157 OPS over 55 ab’s. Doesn’t matter if he displaces someone above him, he’s the better prospect. I hope they don’t wait until the second half to move him to Aberdeen.

• Gunnar Henderson was said to have really benefited from last Summer at the training facility at Bowie. Sure looks like that was accurate conjecture, as he’s been crushing so far for Delmarva. Have to think his second half will be at Aberdeen.

• The ’22 Orioles should be a .500 or better team. There are pieces here (or on the verge of being here) which can contribute to a quality team. They are going to need to be augmented by external additions. The Orioles have the payroll flexibility to go and add through either Free Agency, or via trading for contracts other teams are looking to unload. No excuses for Orioles Ownership or GM Mike Elias in the coming off-season. Improve the roster.