The O’s International Scouting Director John Stockstill met with 21 year-old Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman yesterday, trying to convince the young-lefty to visit Baltimore.
I appreciate the O’s being aggressive here, meeting with him, and attempting to sell a vision.
That said, I think it is hard to peg what is a fair contract for him.
Jose Contreas got 4yrs $32M when he defected, but was much older. Obviously you could argue that as a plus for Chapman, having his prime years ahead of him. However, Contreas had established himself in tournaments all over the World, and had a higher-level of experience. He was more of a sure thing.
As the Number 1 pick in the 2009 Draft, Stephen Strasburg just signed for $15.1M. I understand the rules of the draft, make that signing different vs. signing an unrestricted Free Agent; but you are basically talking about equal talents, at the same age. That makes giving Chapman $40-$60M harder to accept.
Additionally, when he initially defected, there were conflicting reports about his secondary pitches. Some reports said he had a plus Curve, and a plus Slider, but other reports said his non-fastball offerings were only average.
Nobody disputes the velocity he has shown, as Chapman hit triple-digits several-times during the World Baseball Classic.
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