I can be talked into Bell and Snyder

When the World Series ends, and the off-season truly begins, the preparations for the 2010 season will be in full-swing. During the past couple of months, I have argued with myself several-times about the merits of 1st, and 3rd base for the Orioles being handed to prospects Brandon Snyder, and Josh Bell.

With any good debate, you should be able to argue both-sides of the coin. Essentially, this argument boils down to the following reasons for and against their promotion:

The argument against:
1) They need more seasoning. Snyder posted a .671 OPS in AAA over 262 at-bats, how can you believe he is ready for the Majors? In 334 at-bats with Chattanooga, Bell had extreme splits of a 1.025 OPS against RHP, and a .566 OPS against LHP. This continued, albeit at a less-extreme level, at Bowie. Bell needs to taste AAA, and show he can hold his own against lefties.

The argument for:
1) Are Snyder, and Bell going to be the 2011 starters for the O’s? If you believe the answer is yes, and you want to compete during the 2011 season, than Snyder and Bell need to gain as much Major League experience as possible during 2010. Besides, Snyder has hit in the Hawaiian Winter League, the Carolina League, the Arizona Fall League, the Eastern League, and now the AFL once again. Questions will remain about his power, but him gaining additional Major League experience, means more than giving him another 200 at-bats at Norfolk. Look at his domination of AA, and lack of production at AAA together, and believe he is somewhere in the middle of those polar-opposites as a player.

Bell had 448 AA at-bats last year. Based on the numbers he produced for Chattanooga, and Bowie, the rough equivalent for how his numbers would have translated in the Majors would be:

.258 batting average
.310 on-base
.430 slugging
.740 OPS
36 bb’s
104 k’s
19 homers
66 rbi

Frankly, that projection seems a bit high to me. On the other-hand, you would only be asking Bell to produce similar to what Melvin Mora did in 2009. Mora finished this season with a .679 OPS over 450 at-bats, with just a .260 batting average, 8 homers and 48 rbi.

It seems reasonable to believe that at a minimum, Bell could equate Mora’s 2009 numbers.

The argument against:
2) You have in-house existing stop-gap options with Wigginton, and Scott. Neither one might have a long-term future with the O’s, but both are solid professionals, currently scheduled to return for the 2010 season. You might as well start Opening Day 2010 with Wigginton, and Scott manning the corners, and give Snyder and Bell time to get their feet under-them at AAA.

The argument for:
2) Even if Bell and Snyder were anointed the Opening Day starters, Wigginton and Scott would still have roles with the roster. While Wigginton did not show it in 2009, he has typically feasted on LHP. His ability to hit lefties, and play 3rd in-reserve could be a perfect compliment to Bell, as Bell broke into the Majors. As a reserve, you would get the maximum value out of Wigginton, as he could still be used at multiple positions.

The argument against:
3) The O’s need to significantly improve in 2010, and they should not rely on the contributions of two rookie starters. They should look at trades for potential impact long-term options, or FA for other potential impact (and stop-gap) bats.

The argument for:
3) If the O’s greatly improve in 2010, it is going to be due to Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Reimold, and Pie all stepping-forward. If the O’s greatly improve, it will be because Matusz, Tillman, and Bergesen are giving the team a chance every 5th day, vs. the 45 starts made in 2009 by Eaton, Hendrickson, Hill, and Berken. If the O’s greatly improve, it will be that the improved rotation allows the bullpen to improve. If the O’s greatly improve, it will be because that bullpen is augmented internally with Uehara, Mickolio, Hernandez, and Berken. It will not be because Wigginton, and Scott kept the corners warm for 2-3 months.

The argument against:
4) Why start their service-time before it is necessary?

The argument for:
4) There is no great answer for starting their service-clocks before it is necessary, other than if you believe starting Bell and Snyder from the beginning is the best thing you can do for the roster, and for their development going forward.

One added benefit, is that with Bell and Snyder as starters, you would not be adding salary to the roster. This could mean additional money to use towards a bid for a FA starter. (Lackey, Bedard, Harden).

Conclusion:

If the O’s obtain Carlos Delgado, or Adrian Beltre for a year, I could get behind that. If the O’s believed they had enough excess to swing a package (and extend) Adrian Gonzalez, I could obviously get behind that.

Ultimately, I think I lean slightly to the idea of Bell, and Snyder going to AAA, and getting in roughly 200-250 at-bats. If they are producing, bring them up June 1st. If they are not producing, the answer has been made for you.

Still, if the O’s go to Spring Training and the only viable alternatives to Bell and Snyder are Wigginton, Scott, and Aubrey; I think the Orioles would have to at-least consider letting Bell and Snyder have a chance at winning the respective jobs during the Spring.

As Wieters rookie season showed, whenever a prospect ascends to the Majors there is going to be a period of adjustment. If the ultimate goal of this franchise is to be able to contend in 2011, I do maintain that getting as many Major League at-bats as possible for these two is something that has to be accomplished.

If they were named the starters, we would be looking at a roster that resembled the following:

Roberts 2nd
Jones CF
Markakis RF
Wieters C
Reimold LF
Scott DH
Snyder 1st
Bell 3rd
Izturis SS

Wigginton, Moeller, Pie, and one of Aubrey / Montanez / Andino / Fiorentino

Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Guthrie, Arrieta

Uehara
Johnson
Ray
Patton / Waters / Other lefty
Mickolio
Berken
Hernandez