Prior to Justin Duchscherer being signed, I wanted the Baltimore Orioles to give Chris Tillman every opportunity to come North as the 5th starter.
When Duchscherer signed, I came around to the idea that having the depth of both Tillman and Britton waiting in the wings at AAA was a good thing. I figured that injuries or non-performance would occur and that Tillman would again his earn his opportunity at some point during this 2011 season. With Duchscherer having pitched just 28 innings these past two-years, it has always been hard envisioning him getting through this 2011 season unscathed. That said, it is disappointing for all involved that this early into camp Duchscherer is already dealing with soreness in his surgically repaired hip.
If Duchscherer can not start for the O’s (and he has made clear he thinks pitching in relief would be difficult physically) than the O’s should give the ball to Tillman.
The Orioles may consider Britton, but I believe he is unlikely to start the year in Baltimore. Ideally the Birds will look to hold Britton back until June or so to avoid starting his service time. Some will suggest the O’s go back after Millwood, but that would not be my preference.
Over the past two years, Tillman has put up the following numbers:
AAA ’09-’10 combined: 19-13, 3.07 era, 217 ip, 205 hits, 74 er, 15 hr, 56 bb’s, 193 k’s
MLB ’09-’10 combined: 4-10, 5.63 era, 118 ip, 128 hits, 74 er, 24 hr, 55 bb’s, 70 k’s
Last 5 AAA starts 2010: 3-0, 2.17 era, 29 innings, 29 hits, 7 er, 1 hr, 6 walks, with 25 k’s.
Last 5 MLB starts (Sept/Oct) 2010: 1-1, 4.15 era, 28.2 innings, 17 hits, 13 er, 6 hr, 18 walks, 19 k’s.
No matter where Tillman is pitching, he is going to have to continue to work on his cutter and 2 seam fastball. If he is at the AAA level, he figures to overwhelm the competition. His walk-rate at AAA looks good, presumably because he is able to get hitters to expand their zone easier than he is at the bigs. I think he needs extended innings and experience in the Majors. In 2011, I’d love his chances to be a league average 5th starter and give the Orioles 170-185 innings at a 4.75 era. He certainly would have the chance to exceed that.
However, if that is ‘all he is’ right now; there is plenty of value in that. Especially when you account for his age (turns 23 April 15th) and his minimal salary.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.