Illinois Tomorrow, Notre Dame Sunday for the Terps

Optimism for this 2011-12 is currently low for fans of the University of Maryland. It was known by everyone going into this year that losing Jordan Williams was going to limit what the Terps were capable of in the post. It was known by everyone that going from the Coaching of Gary Williams to Mark Turgeon would be a transition for the returning players. It was understood by most that losing Seniors Cliff Tucker, Dino Gregory, and Adrian Bowie would be a lot of experience to replace. It should have been understood by everyone that until Alex Len is eligible, and until Pe’Shon Howard is healthy; that every game was going to be a struggle with only 7 scholarship players currently available.

What I am surprised about so far in this season, are the reactions of surprise we have seen from some Terrapin fans to the blowout losses to Alabama, and Iona; along with the relatively close victory over Florida Gulf Coast. Maryland getting ripped on a neutral court against an athletically strong team in Alabama is not a cause for concern. MD falling apart in the 2nd half against Iona was tough to watch, but not shocking. It was the 3rd game in 4 days for the Terps, who again are playing with 7 scholarship players. It was a 3 point game at halftime that wound up looking ugly. We agree that an ACC team should never be blown out by a MAAC team, but Iona has talent. Mike Glover was the Pre-Season MAAC POY, Arizona transfer Lamont Jones is a scorer, and Scott Machado will be a professional PG. Machado’s ability at PG was a substantial advantage for the Gaels over Maryland trying to make due with Faust playing the 1.

I guess I was less bothered by the FL Gulf Coast game than most. FLGC had played tight games against TCU (Conference USA, 1 point loss) and Miami (10 point loss) prior coming to College Park. Clearly they were not intimidated coming in to face Maryland. With only 12,000 sold tickets (it was Thanksgiving weekend), the atmosphere was limited. Maryland’s 16 point lead wilted away with poor shooting at the foul line, but I don’t expect there to be many games where Stoglin misses 9 times at the charity stripe.

In my eyes, we have yet to see the real Maryland. Give credit to Faust for doing what he can to try and help the team through Howard’s injury. Clearly though, Faust is not a PG (yes, I know he had some experience early in his HS career). If Howard can get back for ACC play, the entire roster improves. Maryland gets a guard that can run the offense in 1/2 court sets, handle pressure, hit open 3’s, and obviously gives the Terps 5 more fouls and additional minutes. Faust gets to play off the ball, and with less overall responsibilities, perhaps Faust’s offense will become a bit more consistent?

Past Howard, Len’s return will also be important. I’m fairly pleased by what MD has received so far this year from Padgett, Pankey, and Weijs. Part of me wonders just how high Len’s ceiling might be this year. My rationale side believes that his ‘floor’ will still help. Another true big that can run the floor athletically, help on the boards, and be a defensive weapon will only help. Another way to look at getting Howard and Len back is that walk-ons Auslander, and Thomas go from being the 8th and 9th options, to being the 10th, and 11th options. Those two are currently playing a combined 19 minutes a game. That will not happen when Howard, and Len are available.

Being selected to the NCAA Tourney next March might seem a like a long-shot now, but you still play the games for a reason. The win against Colorado was important, and should not be discounted. Grabbing a neutral-court victory over a major conference (Pac-12) team is the equivalent of money in the bank. If Maryland could pull an upset this week against Illinois or Notre Dame, and win the January 21st game at Temple; the Terps can still finish with a strong Out of Conference resume.

Beating Illinois or Notre Dame this week will obviously be difficult. Historically Maryland struggles at the Verizon Center for the BB&T Tourney, so I do not have a lot of confidence in beating the Irish Sunday. We will take a closer look at ND later this week, but right now I want to focus on Illinois. I’m looking forward to tomorrow night, and I give the Terps a fighting chance to beat the Fighting Illini in the annual ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

For the first time in 2011, the Comcast Center will be rocking and the adrenaline will be up. It is a chance for the Terps and Coach Turgeon to remind people that there is talent on this roster. With additional experience and the reinforcements coming next Fall, I am expecting big things in 2012-13. That is a whole season away though, and even if this year stays a struggle, I expect MD to jump up and bite better teams occasionally. Tomorrow would be a great time for one of those moments.

Coach Weber was quoted before the season as saying he believed this Illinois team could be competitive this year, and a contender next year. With Sunday’s win over Chicago State, the Illini improved to 6-0 on the season. Maryland should prove to be a step-up in play for the Illini, as Richmond is the most talented team Illinois has faced in that 6-0 start.

For the year, Illinois is averaging 72.5 ppg, 36.8 rebounds per game, 13.7 assists per game, and has a FG% of 47.1.
That compares to MD’s average of 65.4 ppg, 35 rebounds per, 9.4 assists and a FG% of 43.1.

Last year when the Terps played Illinois, we spoke with Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune.  Hine spoke to the versatility of the former McDonald’s All-American DJ Richardson. As a Freshman in ’09-’10, Richardson was the Big Ten Freshman of the Year. As a Sophomore, his scoring regressed. As a Junior, Richardson is back leading the team. Who from the Terps will get the defensive assignment? My guess is Mosley. If the Terps are going to win, Richardson has to be held in check.

Another player Hine was high on last year was Myers Leonard. It looks like he struggled mightly in league play as a Freshman, but the 7’1 245 Center has come on quickly as a Sophomore – entering tomorrow he is 2nd on the team in scoring, and leading Illinois in rebounding. It would be nice to have Len’s size to go against him, but without Len, Weijs needs to make Leonard work.

Also in the Frontcourt is Tyler Griffey. Griffey has had a very solid outings so far, including 14 rebounds vs. SIU-Edwardsville. Maryland fans remember Griffey for burying 3 three pointers vs. the Terps last year. Keeping him off the glass is going to be important. It will be interesting to see if Maryland’s defenders stay close to the rim and give Griffey open outside shots?

Sam Maniscalco was awarded a Medical RS after injuring his ankle early last year. The Graduate student has taken advantage of that additional opportunity, with a scoring average in double figures. Maniscalco has had at-least three 3 point attempts in every game. Does he get a lot of open looks, or is able to bury shots with a defender in his face? If Mosley is guarding Richardson, will it be Stoglin or Faust on Maniscalco?

In the six games Illinois has played, Jr. Guard Brandon Paul has scored 14, 7, 12, 0, 12, and 2 points. What has been the cause of his inconsistency? What gets his scoring going? Which Paul shows up tomorrow?

Illinois is working in 7 newcomers, including highly regarded Freshman PF Mike Shaw (6’8, 230 lbs, Top 65 recruit), and SG Myke Henry (6’6, 230 lbs, Ranked 39th overall by Rivals.com). These two have not played a lot yet (though Henry had 14 points against Chicago St. Sunday), but you have to go into tomorrow being aware of their ability.

The biggest issue I see for Maryland is that Illinois is currently playing 10 players at-least 10 minutes a game. It is understood how that would be tough for MD to deal with, with their limited depth. I will be curious to see if Coach Weber subs in waives, and uses his depth to press and tire the Terps; or if he shortens his bench playing in a hostile road environment.