Is Mike Baumann Really This Good?

It’s early in the season still, so naturally all we do around here in the baseball writing world is overanalyze small sample sizes and engage in a little overreaction theater. “This guy might be bad all of a sudden!” we scream after Juan Soto spends three weeks in a slump that we wouldn’t care about if it happened in June.

But one thing I think is good to do this time of year is look at guys who are having early success and see what they might be doing differently, and there’s one guy doing that on the Orioles that I’d like to take a look at—Mike Baumann.

Baumann is a guy I’ve been interested in for a long time. He was drafted by the Orioles in the third round of the 2017 draft, and while he was never a top prospect for the organization, he showed a good bit of promise with some great success in Single- and Double-A.

But that didn’t translate to consistent success in Triple-A, nor has it translated to much success at all in the majors, as Baumann posted a 4.72 ERA last year in 13 games and four starts.

This year has been different though, as so far this season he’s posted a 0.87 ERA, giving up just one earned run on the season as he’s fully transitioned to a bullpen role. Now, obviously, this is the smallest of all small sample sizes—he’s only pitched 10.1 innings in eight games, but he’s been good enough that it warrants digging in to see if he’s doing anything differently, and looks like he is.

What Baumann is doing differently

Baumann doesn’t have a new pitch, nor do his pitches look all that different. Instead, what he’s doing is utilizing his repertoire a bit differently.

Baumann’s main pitch is his fastball, and last year, he located the pitch over the middle of the plate quite a lot:

Which might explain why opposing hitters teed off on it last year, with a .379 average and .411 wOBA against. But so far this year, he’s been locating the pitch much better, keeping it high in the zone:

That’s definitely a location I’m way more comfortable with him sticking with than basically just down the middle of the plate. Luckily, Baumann’s fastball has been more effective so far this year too, posting a .091 average against, a .177 wOBA against, and a 32.6% CSW (called strikes + whiffs).

But here’s where Baumann is noticeably doing things differently so far—he’s utilizing his curveball more. And it’s a nice curveball too.

In fact, Baumann has steadily been utilizing his curveball more and more over the years. In 2021, he only threw his curveball 6% of the time. In 2022, that jumped up to 18.3% of the time, and so far this year, he’s been throwing it 23.4% of the time.

He’s also been locating the curveball differently this year than he did last year, throwing it gloveside 65% of the time so far this year, compared to just 45.3% of the time last year, and throwing it low in the zone 75% of the time.

And luckily, the pitch has been working really well. On the year so far, Baumann’s curveball is posting a .100 average and .146 wOBA against, as well as a 27.5% CSW and a 17.5% swinging-strike rate.

Personally, I love this approach. Raise the hitter’s eye level with fastballs up and then bury the curveball low and gloveside. It’s an approach Blake Snell optimized a ton back in his Cy Young days and it can work really well.

As Baumann has been using his curveball more, he’s been using his slider a bit less, throwing it 19.3% of the time so far compared to 21.6% of the time last year. Frankly, Baumann’s slider looks closer to a cutter than it does to a slider, which is likely why he’s been locating it high in the zone more than you would typically see from a slider, throwing it there 45.5% of the time so far this year.

The slider hasn’t been nearly as effective this year as it was last year, posting a .273 average and .315 wOBA against alongside a .393 xBA and .444 xwOBA against, both of which are very concerning.

So is Mike Baumann really this good?

Baumann has looked like a great bullpen piece for the Orioles so far this year, and I think there’s definitely something here worth taking note of.

Again, as I’ve said, we’re looking at a super small sample size and things could easily change quickly, but it looks like Baumann is toying with his pitch mix and having some success with it.

I like the approach he’s working with, going fastballs high, curveballs low. I’d like to see the slider improved a little bit, those expected stats do worry me, but the fastball/curveball combo is working well and I think could continue working well.

Obviously a sub-1.00 ERA isn’t going to happen, but he’s got a FIP of 2.83 and an xERA of 3.91. Could he be a reliever with solid strikeout numbers and an ERA in the low-3s? I think that’s definitely possible, and that would be another super useful bullpen piece for the Orioles.

Either way, Mike Baumann is someone to pay attention to this year.