Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic wrote an article last Saturday quoting Arizona Diamondbacks General Manager Joshy Byrnes as stating a fire sale was not going to happen.
From the perspective of the O’s, the interesting aspects of this piece is Byrnes’ admission that payroll does need to be reduced, and Piecoro’s theory that the Diamondbacks will at-least listen to offers for Drew. Piecoro also suggests the price could be a coveted pitching prospect.
I would be very interested in Drew, especially if I could build a trade around Zach Britton as the center-piece from the O’s.
Drew is arbitration eligible this year, and through the 2012 season. This means if obtained, he would be a Free Agent for the 2013 season if not extended first.
The 27 year-old SS bats from the left-hand side, and throws from the right. In 2,159 career Major League at-bats Drew has a lifetime OPS of .769. This includes an On-base % of .328 for his career.
In his best season (2008) Drew had 76 extra-base hits. Here in 2010 his OPS is at .756, and his .270 batting average matches his career levels. On the defensive-side, Fangraphs.com shows his current UZR/150 at 6.5 (-8.6 for his career).
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4251&position=SS
That 6.5 UZR/150 places Drew in the Top 10 in the league, and currently ahead of Izturis.
Despite that rating, I’m plenty comfortable with believing Izturis is the better fielder. However, even if Izturis was signed for 2011 (which he is not) the need to improve at the SS position has to be apparent for all Oriole fans. Izturis has career numbers of a .624 OPS, and a .297 On-base %, and somehow his 2010 numbers are even lower. He is not Mark Belanger / Ozzie Smith with the glove, and he can not continue to stay in the O’s lineup.
Drew might regress some with a switch from the NL West to the AL East, but he would clearly out-produce Izturis. Drew might not get the triples he gets in those spacious NL West ballparks, but he might hit a few more homers here in the East.
Do I actually think Britton is enough? On his own, I doubt it. I would imagine the Diamondbacks would know they were not going to get Matusz, or Arrieta and insist on Tillman. I’m not trading away Tillman for Drew. You simply can not walk away from Tillman’s talent, and the years of control of his contract you have.
However it does take talent to get talent, and that leads me to Britton. After being named the Carolina League (High A) Pitcher of the Year in 2009, Britton is having a strong-season for Double A Bowie. The 22-year old Lefty is 7-3, with a 2.48 era. In 87 innings of work, Britton has allowed 76 hits, 4 homers, 28 walks, with 68 k’s. He has an absurd Grounder to Fly-ball ratio of 3.06, and is holding hitters to a .231 average against. In his last 10 starts he is 6-1, with a 1.74 era. Everyone that sees Britton sees a very-polished pitcher that will be in the Big Leagues shortly. For the O’s that would clearly be a 2011 arrival. Britton has also been named to the Futures Game as the O’s representative.
You could make the same point about Britton that I did about Tillman (talent, years of control) but I place Britton one rung below Tillman on the talent-ladder. It would not be easy to let Britton go, but I would do it for Drew, especially if I was able to keep the Matusz/Arrieta/Tillman trio together.
EDIT: Further discussion of this topic can be found on Orioles Hangout.
http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=99272
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