What is Jim Johnson Worth on the Trade Market?

Determining what a player will bring back on the trade market can be a very difficult exercise for a variety of reasons. Often these trades include a variety of MLB-ready talent, prospects, and organizational filler type players. Each of these types of players have value, just in different ways. They are difficult to compare because each organization values them differently depending on their current outlook on the win curve. It’s also difficult to judge these moves because no two players are exactly alike, especially when things like age,

contract, track record, and more needs to be taken into account. Some O’s fans would love to move Jim Johnson because his $10MM – $11MM salary this upcoming season will no doubt make it more difficult for the team to fill out the roster in an efficient way.

While it may make sense to move Johnson as part of a package in order to maximize the return, my focus will be on what Johnson could bring back as the major piece in a deal. To do that, we’ll take a look at 4 somewhat relevant deals over the past few seasons to gauge the amount of value Johnson would have.

Discuss this article and the trade market for elite relievers on the BSL Forums here.

Trade 1 – Andrew Bailey 

On December 28th, of 2011 the Oakland A’s traded promising young reliever Andrew Bailey to the Boston Red Sox. Moving relievers at the peak of their value isn’t foreign to Beane and the Oakland front office, as they’ve been playing that game with rival teams for years now. Ultimately, the trade went down as follows (details from MLBTR):

OAK receives:
OF Josh Reddick
1B Miles Head
RHP Raul Alcantara

BOS receives:
RHP Andrew Bailey
OF Ryan Sweeney

At the time, Bailey was coming off three seasons at the back of Oakland’s bullpen where he average 25 saves per year. During those three seasons Bailey had a combined ERA of 2.07, including two years of 45+ IP and ERAs below 2. He was viewed as an elite reliever at the time, and had the track record to prove it. Not only that, but prior to signing in Boston Bailey had a salary under $500K, though Boston knew that would jump significantly in his first year of arbitration after they acquired him. It did, but to only $3.9MM, which was still a steal for a player who would anchor the back of their bullpen. Ryan Sweeney was thrown into the deal for Oakland, a guy who was solid for Oakland in previous years but posted a line of .265/.346/.341 in his last season as an Athletic. That translated to a negative WAR for Oakland, and made him an easy addition to the trade.

In return, Oakland got a budding offensive star in Josh Reddick, along with two complementary minor league prospects with some promise. Oakland placed a bet on Reddick’s 278 at-bats in 2011 where he hit .280/.327/.457 for Boston while playing all three outfield positions. Reddick was a question mark, as he had never seen full-time at bats in the big leagues. The following season Reddick was a 4.5 win player, despite batting just .242 in Oakland. He followed that up with a 2.7 win campaign in 2013 despite seeing his average drop further to just .226. As a pre-arbitration player, Reddick cost the A’s just $995K over the past two seasons, equivalent to roughly 1/4 of Bailey’s 2012 salary alone.

The other two pieces in the trade, Miles Head and Raul Alcantara, both find themselves in the middle of Oakland’s top 10 prospects list. Alcantara, ranked 7th by MLB.com features a low-90s fastball to go along with decent breaking stuff. He still has room to grow due to only 20 years old for the entire 2013 season. Despite his youth, he posted a 3.11 ERA over two levels last year, seeing his stock rise considerably. Miles Head, ranked 9th on Oakland’s top 10 list, moved to 3B shortly after joining the A’s. His bat has been up and down for the club, posting contrasting lines of .272/.338/.404 and .196/.264/.264 in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Head battled injuries, and will need to bounce back in a big way at AA next season to recoup some of his value.

The mechanics of the deal are this:

Oakland received: pre-arb MLB OFer, Projectable RHP prospect, Corner IF prospect with question marks.
Boston received: MLB-proven closer, MLB 4th OFer

Trade 2 – Heath Bell

The mechanics of this deal are a bit more complicated as it was a three team swap involving Miami, Oakland, and Arizona. Overall the portion of this trade involving the closer worked out to this (details from MLBTR):

AZ receives:
RHP Heath Bell
SS Cliff Pennington
$8MM

OAK receives:
OF Chris Young
$500K

Three team trades are always more complicated because of the players moving from to multiple locations and the money that inevitably changed hands. For the purpose of this exercise though, the only thing that matters is what Arizona gave up, and got back in their efforts to acquire Heath Bell.

Bell was coming off a lousy 2012 season for Miami in which he posted an ERA over 5, and less than half as many saves as he had in any other season as a closer. He did however have a truly impressive track record, posting 132 saves from 2009 to 2011 with an ERA of 2.36 during that time. Bell was one of the best relievers in baseball during that time, leading MLB in saves while finishing top 5 in fWAR (#6 would be the aforementioned Andrew Bailey). Bell was entering year 2 of a 3 year deal worth $27 Million that included a vesting option for another $9MM on the back-end if he finished 55 games in 2014 or 100 combined between 2013 and 2014. Receiving $4MM from Miami each season meant that Bell was essentially a 2/$10MM closer for them, with a vesting option that could make it a 3/$19MM deal at the end of the day. Not a steal, but relatively cheap all things considered. Pennington was a throw-in as a defense-first SS whose glove made him worth about 1 win per season despite offensive production 35% below league average in 2012, and 15% below league average for his career.

To acquire Bell and Pennington, Arizona had to move promising outfielder Chris Young to Oakland, along with $500K to pay part of his salary. Young is a powerful outfielder whose hit tool leaves much to be desired. Despite his inability to hit for a decent average, Young was worth 2.5 wins in 2012, and was coming off back-to-back 4 win seasons for Arizona in ’10 and ’11. If Young had accumulated the 600 at bats he had the previous two seasons, it’s reasonable to expect that he would’ve been somewhere between 3 and 4 fWAR in 2012, the season preceding the trade. While Young’s performance in Oakland left a lot to be desired, his track record the 3 preceding seasons was why Billy Beane picked him up. He’s exactly the type of player Beane likes, solid but undervalued because of one glaring deficiency. In this case, Young is a good player who struggles with his hit tool.

The mechanics of this deal, from Arizona’s POV are as follows:

Arizona received: MLB-proven closer, MLB defense first SS
Oakland received: Undervalued MLB OFer

Trade 3 – Joel Hanrahan

Almost exactly one year after acquiring Andrew Bailey from the A’s, the Boston Red Sox traded for Pittsburgh’s closer Joel Hanrahan. Hanrahan saved 76 games between 2011 and 2012 making his mark as a dominant closer for the Pirates posting 1.83 and 2.72 ERAs during those seasons respectively. Boston’s trade for Hanrahan involved 6 players, with 4 of them going back to Pittsburgh. The trade went down with the following players moving (details from MLBTR):

PIT receives:
RHP Mark Melancon
1B/OF Jerry Sands
INF Ivan De Jesus, Jr.
RHP Stolmy Pimentel

BOS receives:
RHP Joel Hanrahan
INF Brock Holt

Pittsburgh decided it was time to move their closer despite being over .500 as late as the middle of September in 2012. For a club that had such trouble breaking that .500 barrier, it would seem an odd move to trade such a critical part of the bullpen. However, the team decided it had internal options to replace him, and valued what they could get in a trade. Throwing in Brock Holt who had a cup of coffee with Pittsburgh in 2012 was a small consolation. Holt is a relatively power-less second baseman, whose glove doesn’t make up for his deficiencies with the bat. He’d be a utility player at best at the Major League level.

In return the Pirates were able to get 4 interesting players from the Red Sox. Melancon was formerly a closer with Houston, but had a disastrous 2012 season with Boston as his ERA shot well above 6 runs per 9 innings. Despite a rough season Melancon ended the season on a somewhat strong note with a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio after spending some time in AAA Pawtucket. Melancon was the owner of a career ERA just over 3.30 prior to 2013, and he rewarded the Pirates’ faith by posting a 1.39 ERA across 71 innings. That ERA wasn’t even a fluke as his FIP (1.64) and xFIP (2.05) suggest he was that good.

Jerry Sands, of Los Angeles Dodger “fame” had posted a .288/.362/.552 line with 55 home runs over two seasons in AAA for the Dodgers prior to being traded to Boston and subsequently Pittsburgh. Sands was always a solid bat and decent glove who could be worth 1 win or more as a 4th outfielder. Ivan De Jesus, Jr. is similar to Sands as a guy with a long track record of success in AAA. De Jesus was 25 at the time of the trade, and had posted a .303/.355/.416 line over 1,294 triple-A plate appearances. De Jesus, Jr. has never received more than 45 plate appearances in a single major league season though, and is probably best described as a 4A type player who could fill in as a major league utility man if the team needed.

Pimentel, the 4th piece going to Pittsburgh was a bit of an enigma at the time of this trade. Once a heralded prospect, Pimentel had tumbled from his high point at 9th on the Red Sox’ Top 10 prospects lists in recent years. Still, Pimentel had a lively arm, hitting mid to upper 90s with his fastball and sinker. He also relied on a high-80s slider with solid movement. This reportoire probably relegated Pimentel to the bullpen, albeit with the profile of a very good bullpen arm. He made his Pirate debut in 2013 throwing 9.1 innings, giving up just 2 runs on 6 hits while striking out 9.

Overall the mechanics of the deal were:

PIT received: MLB-proven reliever with closer upside, two 4A utility players, RP prospect
BOS received: MLB-proven closer, emergency middle infielder

Trade 4 – Francisco Rodriguez

This trade may hit close to home as Baltimore traded away prospect Nick Delmonico for veteran reliever Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod has a long history as an effective reliever, amassing over 300 saves prior to joining the Orioles at the July trade deadline. This is the first trade we’ve taken a look at that has occurred mid-season, which adds another wrinkle to understanding the valuation here. This trade was fairly simple (details from MLBTR):

MIL receives:
INF/OF Nick Delmonico

BAL receives:
RHP Francisco Rodriguez

I won’t discuss this trade in as much depth as the others for two reasons. The first being that since it was so recent there isn’t much to judge the “cost” on. The second is because this trade was analyzed previously here on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Rodriguez had a long history of being a proven closer, and more recently was a dominant setup man for Milwaukee prior to the trade. Rodriguez had a career ERA under 2.70 over more than 750 innings pitching for the Angels, Mets, and Brewers. While he last operated as a true go-to closer in 2011 for New York, he had that pedigree at the time of his trade. In 2013 specifically, Rodriguez appeared to be about as dominant as they come, posting a 1.09 ERA over 24.2 innings pitched.

Delmonico is largely an unknown, but I’ll highlight three quotes that sum up the return for K-Rod.

From MLBTR:

Baseball America ranked Delmonico as the fourth-best prospect in the Orioles’ system before the season and praised his high baseball IQ and hitting tools, “though there’s some length to his swing.”  Delmonico projects as a corner infielder in the future as he doesn’t have the fielding ability to stick at second base.

From ESPN’s Keith Law:

Delmonico is probably a top-200 prospect in the minors right now, though not a top-100 guy. He has a solid approach at the plate and above-average power, but also has questions about his position and durability. 

The 20-year-old can hit and takes great at-bats, with strong hands and a modest load, as well as raw power that is starting now to translate into games, as he’s slugging .471 for high Class A Frederick this season. His biggest problem is staying on the field; he played just 95 of 144 games last year and has played 60 of 99 this year…

BSL’s Midseason Top 30 Prospects scouting report from last year:

Advanced plate approach and discipline for his age and level. Has a good, level swing through the zone, and has worked to minimize the loop in the swing since being drafted. Not highly athletic, which begs the question of whether he can stick at third base. Might be better suited as a first basemen or corner outfielder, which brings the question whether he will hit enough. Seems to have that “injury prone” label. Tough to say that about a player in his second year of professional ball, but he has been injured a lot, which effects his ability to grow and learn. Overall, good player with some raw power and good approach, but might not be an impact player.

Overall you get the idea that Delmonico is likely a guy who will rely heavily on his bat to be an impact player at the big league level. That said, his bat shows some serious promise and his advanced hitting approach will undoubtedly help him as he moves up through the minors and faces better talent.

The mechanics of the deal:

MIL received: INF/OF Prospect with promise
BAL received: MLB-proven reliever

Trade 5 – Jim Johnson

Looking at those 4 trades as a baseline you get several possible options for Dan Duquette and the Orioles. Johnson could be moved for MLB-proven talent, which is a bucket I’ll throw Reddick, Young, and Melancon into. Another option is to target organizational depth, which is more of the Jerry Sands or Ivan De Jesus, Jr. type of player. Finally prospects are always an intriguing part of any deal, and that’s where Miles Head, Raul Alcantara, Nick Delmonico, and Stolmy Pimentel would fall.

It’s likely that Duquette would target some mix of those three types of players in a return for Johnson. I doubt he’d go after the organizational filler mold, because he seems to have a knack for finding those players in free agency. He has showed that time and again, not only with his tenure in Baltimore, but with Boston and Montreal as well. So let’s assume that Duquette targets prospects and/or MLB-proven talent.

When looking at the latter the preference would be for cheap and somewhat unproven players like Reddick. Here are some potential names that might be of interest, with some of their key statistics listed. The timeframe I chose to look at was 2012 and 2013, targeting players with less than a full season’s plate appearances. Obviously I removed some older backup players from the list because those are not ideal targets to leave us with 24 initial options. This isn’t a perfect list by any means, but it’s a starting point.

 

Another caveat to this is that I haven’t sorted this table for teams looking at closers. I would find it doubtful that my top target, Khris Davis from Milwaukee would be available in a trade of Johnson. Especially considering they were the team who moved Rodriguez to us during the season.

The same exercise could be done for a list of pitchers as well, to target some pitching options that might have promise left. That exercise is a bit more difficult in my opinion though, so I’ll leave it at this for now.

As far as prospects, that’s another story entirely. It really depends on the situation the team trading for Johnson is in, and what their farm system looks like. IT would also depend on any other players in the deal, as the prospect value would likely be used to balance a trade either way. For example, one of the players above might need a top 15 prospect to go with him in a trade to make things even for the O’s.

The O’s could also eat some of Johnson’s 2014 contract to make him more attractive to other teams. Would it be worth it to eat $5MM of his 2014 salary if that brought back more significant talent in return? For the acquiring team Johnson goes from an $11MM gamble to a $6MM value pickup with a huge likelihood of providing more excess value than that. If not the club would certainly see a less impressive return.

Trading Jim Johnson would certainly be one of the most difficult things Dan Duquette would have to do this offseason. The return however could be significant if he plays his cards right. Much was made of the Red Sox and Cardinals going to the World Series despite lacking established closers. The fact though is that Uehara had experience as a setup man, and has been one of the best relievers in baseball for a few years now. Rosenthal and Martinez of St. Louis were both power arms who have chances to be great starting pitchers, but profiled as excellent relievers. To me, the narrative is being driven by a falsehood – that only those who close can be true closers. The fact though is that only the best relievers are closers, and this holds true for Boston, St. Louis, and even Baltimore.

If a team is near contention or sees itself as having a shot at a World Series, a guy like Jim Johnson might be the thing they need to stabilize their bullpen and achieve that goal. He has a lot of value, some of which is mitigated by his salary next season. There are a lot of “ifs” involved in moving Johnson, but there can be a big payoff by making the right move with him as well.