July 4th, 2011 – What will the O’s look like?

On 7/4/10 the O’s are playing .300 level baseball, and are 32 games under .500.

There is an interim Manager in-place.

The 2nd-baseman is trying to work his way back, but there are now long-term questions about his ability to play-out the remainder of his contract.

The SS has an OPS of .546, and figures to not be back.

The 3rd-baseman is still adjusting to his new position, and despite a .325 average in June, still has an OPS under .700.

The core position players you want to build around – Markakis, Wieters, and Jones – are not producing at the level required for this team to reach their potential.

Reimold struggled in his 83 at-bats with the O’s and has struggled back with Norfolk. He is getting starts at 1st.

Pie suffered an unfortunate injury, but should start everyday in the 2nd-half. However, it appears his time in the OF will be limited.

Bell has made his ML debut, but had poor walk to k numbers at Norfolk. Snyder had finally started to show signs at AAA, but got hurt.

Matusz has been ok, but his control should be better with the command he actually has. Arrieta is getting his feet wet. Tillman was ok in 2 starts, poor in 2 others. Bergesen was solid in May, and very good in Boston Friday – but overall is struggling to refine his form. Britton is quickly entering the picture.

Hernandez and Berken have found homes in the O’s bullpen.

Gonzalez and Johnson are working their way back.

It would appear that Wigginton, and Millwood are locks to be traded, with Guthrie, Scott, and Tejada also possible departures.

Despite all of that, a year from today I expect the O’s to be significantly improved. Perhaps that makes me an optimist at best, and naive at-worst; but I think things will normalize a bit and this team will play closer to their potential.

I think the improvement is going to be mostly gained from internal growth.

So what do I think the O’s will look like?

1) I think after the O’s interview a minority candidate (Don Baylor?), they are going to hire Showalter. If they wanted to hire Johnson, there would have been more movement after Johnson’s comments last-week. I am sure they like Wedge, and have reservations on Showalter – but those reservations (his personality) will be what gets him hired. They will decide to go with a personality that differs than some of the recent Oriole Managers.

What I would like to see is Showalter hired now, but not put on the bench. Spend the rest of 2010 evaluating the team from above with MacPhail, and going out and seeing the system.

2) I think Roberts gets back and is reasonably effective. I doubt he ever again averages the 157 games played he did during the 2007-2009 seasons, but I expect he plays 130+ games in 2011. I would not be surprised to see him run less though.

3) I think Wiggington, and Millwood are traded. I think Guthrie and Scott are not. I could see Tejada moved (Twins, Angels?) but I tend to think he will not.

4) I think Johnson gets back, but quickly goes on the DL again and winds-up having surgery costing him most of 2011.

5) I see the O’s holding Britton back in AAA to start ’11, even if he gets a few ML starts to end ’10.

6) If Snyder got back to Norfolk and went on a run to end ’10, he could be in the mix for the O’s roster to start ’11 – but I think he again heads back to AAA to start next-year.

If the O’s fail to add their FA targets, I see the O’s starting next-year with a roster that looks like:

Matusz, Arrieta, Guthrie, Tillman, Bergesen

Hernandez
Berken
Gonzalez
Simon
Patton
Albers
Mickolio

Roberts 2nd
Pie LF
Markakis RF
Wieters C
Jones CF
Scott DH
Reimold 1st
Bell 3rd
SS?

Patterson, Tatum, Moore, Fox

7) If Guthrie is traded, I see them looking for one innings eating veteran.

8) If Guthrie is not traded, I could see them still being interested in a starter – but someone of a greater injury-risk (and ceiling). Such as Bedard, Sheets, or Webb.

9) I could see the O’s attempting to sign Adam Dunn, if Dunn was now willing to DH, or if the O’s are now willing to play him at 1st.

I went into 2010 believing the talent was here for the O’s to finish this year at 82-80, and be positioned to contend in 2011.

As horrible as this 1st-half has been, it is hard to imagine contention occurring next year in any scenario. I do think it is possible the team above could be flirting with .500 this time next-year. Kind of looking similar to how Toronto appears now.