Know Thine Enemy — The Minnesota Twins

One unique perspective I’m able to bring to the table here at Baltimore Sports and Life is that I can also break down the Minnesota Twins since that’s the team I cover on a regular basis. And with a three-game set against the Twins opening on Monday night — the first games between the two teams this season — we can get a good feel for what O’s fans should expect when Minnesota invades Camden Yards.

The Orioles come into the series a half-game behind the surprising Yankees for first place in the AL East, while the Twins are in a virtual tie with the Indians atop the AL Central. Projection systems didn’t exactly love either team coming into the season, and despite their difference in roster construction, the paths to relevance haven’t been terribly different. The Orioles are ninth in the AL in team ERA; the Twins are 10th. Offensively the Orioles are seventh in runs scored, while the Twins are 13 — though they’ve played two fewer games on the season. On a per-game basis, the O’s are averaging 4.7 runs per game and the Twins are at 4.4.

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Let’s break down the Twins by each of the three facets of the game, and then look at pitching matchups to see what the Birds are up against this week:

Offense

A casual observer might suggest the offense begins and ends with Miguel Sano, and that’s not terribly far from the truth. The third-year masher has looked phenomenal at the plate, and is pulling his weight defensively as well. Through 39 games, he’s hitting .304/.430/.615, with the only thing slowing him down being the one-game suspension for shoving Tigers catcher James McCann during a fracas at Target Field last month. Sano strikes out a ton, but absolutely peppers the ball when he makes contact and takes a ton of walks. He’s a three true outcome monster.

The other regulars who boast OPS+ marks above 100 are Robbie Grossman (134), Max Kepler (117) and Brian Dozier (105), and none of those are terribly surprising. Grossman has been unbelievably good in his time with the Twins (.277/.392/.441 through 131 games with Minnesota, .240/.327/.341 before) and is settling in as a top-of-the-order table setter for the big guys in the middle while moving between the corner outfield and at DH. Kepler’s production waxes and wanes, but when he’s on he slaps line drives to the gaps and has really good speed. Dozier has gotten off to a slow start, but has picked things up of late. He’s hitting .243/.341/.403.

Conspicuous by his absence is Joe Mauer, who is hitting a not-terrible .263/.333/.362. Really though, it’s been the tale of two months for the 34-year-old, who had a .546 OPS in April and is up to .924 in May. Manager Paul Molitor has been giving Mauer more time off as well — which seems to help — including days off against lefties and just more rest overall. The rest of the offense has been up and down — Jason Castro, Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario have all had their moments — and Kennys Vargas and Eduardo Escobar have shown some thump off the bench.

The story of the year has been the development, or perhaps lack thereof, for Byron Buxton. He’s had moments where he’s looked completely lost — especially early — and then he’ll go on a hot streak where he’ll hit balls into the gaps and take plenty of walks. He’s still very much a work in progress offensively, but he’s shown elite speed, and where that has helped is….

Defense

….on defense, where the Twins have one of the best units in baseball. The Twins lead MLB in defensive efficiency, where they are turning 72.6 percent of balls in play into outs. Just nine teams are over 70 percent, while the Orioles are just under the league average at 68.9 percent. The Twins outfield motto is “nothin’ falls but raindrops” and that rings true, as Buxton, Rosario and Kepler all exhibit strong range and good arms. All three are capable of playing at least an average center field, which is a luxury for Molitor when guys run cold or when he needs to make a late-inning substitution. Buxton is elite in center, with Gold Gloves looming at some point in his future. Kepler is fairly solid in right, and has cleaned up a lot of the issues he dealt with as a rookie last year while showing a strong arm that comes and goes at times. Rosario has a cannon for an arm, and catches everything he can get to. He’s plenty fast.

The infield does a much better job than expected as well. Sano and Polanco were big question marks coming into the season, but both have held their own. With Sano, the question was about range and focus, as he possesses an absolute Howitzer of an arm. The opposite was true of Polanco, who moves fairly well but doesn’t have the best arm. Both have been adequate at their positions, while Mauer has saved a few errors for both with deft work around the first base bag. Dozier is very, very good at second.

Behind the plate, the Twins have benefitted greatly from upgrading on both the starter and the backup from last season. Kurt Suzuki’s issues were well known — not a good framer, couldn’t throw anyone out — while Juan Centeno was an absolute mess behind the plate. The Twins prioritized upgrading back there by signing Castro to a three-year deal, and so far the results have been…pretty good. Framing numbers are a bit down on StatCorner but are good on Baseball Prospectus and it would stand to reason that framing improves as a catcher learns his staff. Chris Gimenez has done everything the Twins could ask from a backup, as he’s a steadying hand behind the plate and has been on some winning teams, which has helped the clubhouse atmosphere.

Overall, this might be one of the most athletic teams in the game.   

Bullpen

The bullpen is not particularly a strength for the Twins, but they do have arms in place to piece things together to close out a game. On the surface though, it doesn’t look impressive:

• ERA – 4.33 (20th)
• FIP – 4.60 (25th)
• K/9 – 7.5 (28th)
• BB/9 – 3.6 (16th)
• GB rate – 42.7 percent (19th)

Not relying on grounders is cushioned by a strong defensive outfield, but it can also lead to home run issues, as the Twins pen has allowed 1.3 home runs per nine innings — the seventh-highest rate in MLB.

The Twins bullpen is constructed a bit unusually, as their closer is Brandon Kintzler, who has a 1.80 ERA but is fanning just 5.4 batters per nine. He has a penchant for grounders with a nasty sinker, and he’s begun tinkering with a four-seamer to go with a slider that gives him a different look at times. Even if he doesn’t remain in the closer’s role long-term, he’s got good utility as a middle reliever who cleans up messes. Matt Belisle has been a bust so far, though big innings have also killed his ERA as he’s been effective at times. Tyler Duffey has been a revelation as a converted starter, as his two-pitch mix has really played up due to a nasty knucklecurve. Taylor Rogers has done acceptable work as a left-handed specialist, while the Craig Breslow experience keeps on trucking — and he’s added grounders! The guy to watch here is Ryan Pressly, who is really starting to figure things out. Since a really rough outing on April 23, Pressly has 13 strikeouts in his last 7.2 innings with a 3.52 ERA. He’s the team’s best setup man and probably the closer in-waiting.  

Pitching Matchups

Kyle Gibson vs. Ubaldo Jimenez – 7:05 p.m. ET Monday

This one could get ugly, as both teams are leaning heavily on guys who have not brought home the bacon this season. Orioles fans have had it with Ubaldo, while Gibson is making a return from a short stint at Triple-A Rochester, where he made two start with decent results in his first regular stint down there since 2013: 2.92 ERA in 12.1 innings, 13.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 1.38 WHIP. Both guys have lots to prove here.

Ervin Santana vs. Dylan Bundy – 7:05 p.m. ET Tuesday

These two have been the best of what each team has had to offer from their rotations, and this has potential to be a very good duel. Santana’s overall numbers look really good (2.07 ERA), but his peripherals are a bit more troubling (4.37 FIP, 6.5 K/9) and his location/command has been really spotty the last two times out. He’s been nearly impossible to hit this season, however, as opposing batters are hitting just .144/.241/.262 against him. It’s not much easier for righties (.527 OPS) than lefties (.482), either.

Jose Berrios vs. Chris Tillman – 12:35 p.m. ET Wednesday

Berrios has been electric so far this season since his promotion, though it has been just two starts. Still, with just one earned run through his first 15.1 innings, he’s lowered his career ERA more than a run and a half (8.02 -> 6.48) and he’s fanned nearly a batter per inning (15-2 K/BB ratio in) through a couple strong outings. Berrios is averaging 93.9 mph on his fastballs — mostly four-seamers but a few twos in there — and has thrown a lot of curves with not many changeups. The curve has absurd movement and a 13 percent whiff rate, to boot. Perhaps most impressive though is the 14.7 percent whiff rate on his fastball. He’s getting swings and misses with the heater, which is something only elite pitchers do. He’s on his way.