Lamar Jackson. Step up, or step out.

News broke on Tuesday morning that the NFL Players Association is accusing the NFL owners of collusion, due to the lack of fully guaranteed contracts offered to its star players. Specifically, quarterbacks. More specifically, Lamar Jackson.

While Jackson is agent-less, the NFLPA has been lending him advice. That advice after the Deshaun Watson deal from Cleveland of 6/$230M fully guaranteed, is to seek more than that. Now, just about everyone you talk to, except members of the players union apparently, would tell you that the Watson deal is ridiculous and sets an unreal bar for teams to match. On the other hand, I see where the union is coming from as most contracts are structured in a way where the final years never see the light of day, and players can be cut without pay before the contract runs out. They want owners to honor the contracts in full. Baseball does it. Basketball does it. Why not the NFL, right?

Watson wasn’t the first person to get a fully guaranteed deal. Others have, but on smaller scales. Since the Watson deal, other QBs like Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson have signed the same old traditional kind of contract, likely to the NFLPA’s dismay.

Agents have their clients’ best interests in mind, sit with them at the negotiating table, and understand things like a counteroffer, and compromise. The NFLPA has what they think is everyone’s best interests in mind and are using Lamar Jackson as a pawn to hopefully get one step closer to guaranteed contracts becoming the norm for everyone else. Jackson, while being advised by the NFLPA, turned down a six-year, $250M offer with $133M guaranteed at signing. Numbers which when broken down, eclipses all the check boxes the deals Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray had signed. But it didn’t eclipse the guaranteed money in the Watson deal. So negotiations were halted as the regular season was about to start.

It begs the question, did the NFLPA cost Lamar Jackson his payday? He bet on himself, the NFLPA is betting on him. Right now, I think they are losing.

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I wrote back in January of 2019, before we had any idea the Lamar Jackson was going to turn in an MVP performance that season, that looking at the league, the best route to playoff success was locking in elite level QBs or going with a young quarterback and spending to build around them. Many teams wanted to make their pretty good quarterback a franchise quarterback with a long-tern extension, and it hasn’t gone well. At least what I consider well. Andy Dalton’s Bengals, Derek Carr’s Raiders, no thanks to being either of those teams. From that time on, I’ve been a believer that you spend big on elite, or to look to the draft and spend big around them in that four-five year window of rookie and 5th year option wages.

I also laid out here prior to the season what a $250M fully guaranteed contract could look like, and if structured a certain way, it doesn’t have to be a major salary cap burden, if you bet on the salary cap growing at a higher rate with new TV deals on the horizon and putting the Pandemic in the rear view.

The problem now is figuring out where Lamar Jackson stands. You see, this offseason he was only two years removed from a unanimous MVP season. Well, they couldn’t reach a deal, and now he will be three years removed when talks resume. He looked like he had something to prove through the first three games of season where he accounted for 12 touchdowns. Of course, there was room for regression. But he’s been mediocre or worse since. Despite winning games, which is a team effort. In his last seven games he has accounted for only seven touchdowns. Only once in that span has he accounted for more than one score in a game. He also hasn’t come close to a 100-yard rushing day since week 3.

With each passing day, the MVP season carries less and less weight while current games will carry more.

Let’s look at where Lamar Jackson has measured up over the years in some rankings.

Accuracy %

2019 – 12th  2020 – 19th  2021 – 18th   2022 – 20th (Weeks 4-11, 21st)

I’m not too worried about the drop off here. The difference in Jackson in 20th and Josh Allen in 13th in 1 percentage point.

Turnover worthy play %

2019 – 2nd 2020 – 21st 2021 – 19th 2022 – 9th (11th)

Again, I’m not too worried here. The difference between him and Patrick Mahomes is 0.4%. It’s miniscule.

Big time throw %

2019 – 6th 2020 – 11th 2021 – 12th 2022 – 10th (24th)

Pro Football Focus’ definition of a big-time throw: A pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.

This is where my concern grows. Just with the eye test, you can tell Lamar has been lacking in this department since he exploded with 10 passing touchdowns in the first three weeks, a few of the big play variety. If for the majority of season so far Jackson ranks 24^th in this category, then the only other qualifying QBs worse at making big time throws are Kenny Pickett, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, and Matt Ryan.

Passer rating on throws over 20+ air yards

2019 – 6th  2020 – 22nd 2021 – 26th 2022 – 27th (26th)

Looks obvious that this is something that contributes to great seasons. Better throws in these situations lead to big yardage. Big yards can lead to touchdowns, and all those counting stats that add up to dollars in salary. But also, more turning point plays in games, or soul crushing plays that suck the air out of an opposing defense. In 2021 the leaders were Kirk Cousins (guaranteed contract), Josh Allen (already extended), Patrick Mahomes (massive contract in total dollars), Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson whom both earned major extensions this offseason. Then Davis Mills. Yeah, I don’t know either.

QBR

2019 – 1st 2020 – 7th 2021 – 17th  2022 – 8th

QBR tries to assign a rating to the entire body of work. Weighted on importance. Converting a 2nd and 8 in your own territory is worth less than converting a 3rd and 6 to move into scoring range for example. Want to say Lamar Jackson has been a top-ten quarterback for three of his four seasons, I could buy that. But is top-ten worth giving top-two money to? Or the most fully guaranteed money in history to? The funny thing is, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow are mentioned quite a bit as the QBs next to come after Jackson who will get paid huge deals. Yet both have a worse QBR than Jackson on the year. 12th and 14th respectively.

Pressures turned into sacks %

2019 – 10th 2020 – 19th 2021 – 22nd  2022 – 19th (28th)

As I start to investigate the running stats, this is a good place to start. When the play breaks down, what is his ability to make something happen. In 2019, as an MVP, he was pretty damn elusive. How has this gotten worse, especially over the last eight weeks? Not only is he not getting back to the line of scrimmage for positive yards enough, but he’s also not finding a receiver either. For someone who routinely gets called a “cheat code”, “video game ability”, why does this stat suggest he’s been a statue in the pocket. Just from watching, we know he hasn’t been. His ability to gain something from nothing just hasn’t been there like it was as an MVP. Maybe he takes off but is brought down rather quickly these days.

For these running categories, listed is Jacksons rank among all players, with ranking among QBs in parenthesis. * Injury shortened season, missed nearly five games.

Missed tackles forced

2019 – 12th (1st)  2020 – 19th (1st)  2021 – 14th (1st) *  2022 – 13th (2nd)

Yards after contact per attempt

2019 – 10th (2nd)  2020 – 52nd (3rd)  2021 – 41st (3rd)  2022 – 16th (4th)

Designed runs over 15 yards

2019 – 5th (1st)  2020 – 5th (1st)  2021 – 40th (3rd) *  2022 – 7th (1st)

Elusive rating

2019 – 16th (1st)  2020 – 69th (1st)  2021 – 58th (3rd)  2022 – 18th (1st)

That is a lot of “1st” among QBs in the running stats. Not the least bit surprising. I think when you are ranking in the top-20 in these things, including running backs, that is special. When you aren’t, well its nice, but not game changing.

Was Jackson really this bad of a runner in 2021 compared to all other runners?  You go from 5th, 5th, to 40th in designed runs over 15 yards. Who is that on? 2021’s offense line was a complete disaster. I’d say a lot can be contributed to that. But I expect Jackson to be the “video game” kind of runner, independent of the offensive line provided for him. The O-line is better in 2022 for sure. Look at that, the running numbers back on the come up. But can we expect his legs to be less of a factor if the O-line suffers some injuries? If in coming years, the O-line is not as good compared to other years?

I ask these questions as we continue to assess, how much is Lamer Jackson worth? Worth fully guaranteeing $250M to? Worth a $500M contract like Patrick Mahomes?  

The Ravens of course are not making this decision in the next seven games plus playoffs. They are going to the playoffs, right?

Last week I talked about the weak schedule ahead for the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. To be honest, he’s had a “game manager” esque last seven games. He’s got seven more (at least) to try to earn what he’s asked for. To me, he hasn’t earned it to this point, and 2019 is only farther away now than it was in August.

While a decision still doesn’t have to be made this coming off-season with the franchise tag in play for 2023, Jackson could hold out at any time. To earn what he wants, I want to see some increases in the big time throw department. I want to see him connect on some of those deep passes. The plays have been called. The receivers often open. He’s just off the mark with the throws more often. I’d like to see him evade pressure. Trust his legs more when the first couple reads aren’t there. Sacks are negative plays, and with his legs, shouldn’t happen as often as they are.

I have to stick to my guns here. When it comes to QBs, I would extend your elite, and try again in the draft otherwise. Lamar Jackson was elite…once. Top-ten is not elite. Top-five, maybe. A quarterback accounting for on average just one TD a game for almost half a season is not someone I’m interested in extending long term. Don’t be that guy.