Late Inning Hitting

When Pedro Severino launched a two-run homer in the eighth inning against the New York Yankees on July 30, it started a larger trend for the Baltimore Orioles: they’ve had one of the best offenses in the last three innings of their games.

While the Orioles still ended up losing that game, it was the first major demonstration of an offense that currently ranks 7th in OPS and 4th in slugging percentage in the seventh through ninth innings. This stands in major contrast to how the Orioles perform in the first three innings, where their offense ranks 20th for OPS and 17th for slugging percentage.

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As with virtually every offensive stat compared to the 2019 Orioles, there’s been a major improvement in this year’s late game offense compared to last year. In 2019, Baltimore ranked 26th in OPS during the final three innings, with their slugging percentage similarly poor, ranking 27th. This major jump in the league rankings reflects an important trend for the team this year: they’re almost never out of a game.

While that July 30 game still resulted in a loss after Aaron Judge launched a no-doubter in the ninth inning, it was still exciting to see a team overcome a 5-run first inning deficit and take the lead. I don’t think the 2019 team would’ve been able to do that and I’d guess you, the reader, don’t think so either. That was also hardly the only time they were able to rally in final innings this year. The best example of this came on August 8 at Nationals Park. After being shut out for the first seven innings against the defending champions, the O’s delivered a massive eighth inning, with Severino and Anthony Santander hitting homers to left field as the O’s plated five runs to lead them to a victory. Even with some tarp shenanigans, the Orioles still went on to win their next four games after that, giving them a clear momentum boost.

While late-inning rallies are fun, using the last three innings to provide the team with extra cushion when they’re already leading has value as well. In the first game of Baltimore’s sweep of the Rays, they entered the seventh inning with just a 4-3 lead, but scored in both the seventh and eighth innings to provide Cole Sulser a comfortable 6-3 to record the save. Late-inning insurance runs are especially helpful when you can avoid using high-leverage relievers for a night, resting them for a potentially tighter game the next day. Entering the seventh inning of Baltimore’s series finale against the Phillies, they had a two-run lead with a bullpen that had been heavily used the prior two games of the series. The O’s then went on to score seven runs in the final three innings, which provided valuable rest for the bullpen. Mychal Givens, Miguel Castro and Cole Sulser had all appeared in the prior two games and were able to rest their arms in a blowout win.

Given that he’s already been mentioned for two different games, it should come as no surprise that one of the leading forces of the late-inning surge from the Orioles is Severino. The catcher has hit five extra base hits in his 24 at-bats during the final three innings, good for an impressive .833 slugging percentage, a major boost from his overall slugging percentage of .618. Using win probability added from Baseball-Reference, only Anthony Santander has provided a bigger boost to the Orioles as a hitter than Severino.

While he has a lower slugging percentage than Severino, Hanser Alberto has also been reliable in the final innings of the game, with an incredible .484 batting average and 1.271 OPS. Alberto’s OPS is .693 in the first three innings, so he’s been a much better hitter as the game nears its end.

While the ability to battle late has kept the Orioles in virtually every game this year, there have been occasions where a late rally has been wasted in a loss. The previously mentioned July 30th meeting against the Yankees is the most prominent example of this, as the two-run eighth inning was nullified when New York scored three times in the top of the ninth. Last Sunday against the Nationals, Anthony Santander’s seventh inning homer to Eutaw Street off Max Scherzer to tie the game went to waste after a throwing error from Rio Ruiz in the top of the eighth. When there’s only 60 games, not capitalizing on two late rallies can loom large for a team that is still in the playoffs chase.

With close to half of the season completed, the Orioles are one of the best teams on offense in the late innings. If they can stay in the top ten for both OPS and slugging percentage, it can keep them in games and give them chances to win games they might have handily lost last year, providing optimism for this season and the future.