Source: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America
What do you do with the (almost) $40 million man?
When the Baltimore Orioles signed Ubaldo Jimenez to a four-year, $50 million deal before the 2014 season, they handed out the third-largest free agent contract in franchise history, behind Miguel Tejada ($72 million) and Albert Belle ($65 million). Now, 125.1 IP, 67 earned runs, 77 walks and $11.25 million later, there are reports they’re looking to send him packing.
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Undoubtedly this has something to do with the Orioles leaving Jimenez off the ALCS roster, and him in return declining Baltimore’s invitation to have him travel with the team for the series — Jimenez instead chose to return home to Miami for the offseason — but decisions like these are never made on hurt feelings alone. Of the two available high-commodity pitchers who saw their contract prospects hurt by the qualifying offer last offseason, Jimenez and eventual Brave Ervin Santana, the Orioles chose the wrong one. Santana regressed as well, but not as hard as Jimenez, and he still gave the Braves almost 200 innings of acceptable back-of-the-rotation pitching. The Braves also only signed him to a one-year deal. The Orioles are still on the hook for three more seasons.
Bringing Jimenez back is far from out of the question, of course; it’s the default option, the resting state of things. If they’re unable to deal him, he’ll be back in camp with Baltimore next spring, and his $12.25 million salary will have to smooth over any hurt feelings. There’s even some reason — not much, but some — to be optimistic about Jimenez in his second season with the Orioles: after Jimenez pitched to a 5.40 ERA (72 ERA+) in 2012 for the Cleveland Indians in his first full year with that club, he came back in 2013 and threw 182.2 IP of 3.30 ERA (115 ERA+) ball the next year. Perhaps more familiarity with Buck Showalter and the Orioles’ pitching staff will inspire a similar turnaround. The Orioles will certainly have to hope so if they’re unable to move him.
If Dan Duquette is serious about trading Jimenez…well, the Phillies are serious about trading Ryan Howard right now; the Toronto Blue Jays and then the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim were both serious about trading Vernon Wells and the Chicago Cubs got out from underneath Alfonso Soriano: no contract in Major League Baseball is untradable. However, the Orioles are not the Cubs, the Angels, or the Phillies (and the Jays got supremely fortunate that the Angels were willing to eat almost the entire Wells deal and throw in Mike Napoli for their trouble). Having $8 million or so of dead money on the books each of the next few seasons would actually do significant damage to Baltimore’s ability to sign the parts they need to keep their contention window open, and the current league environment tends towards the overvaluation of prospects — barring a lapse of judgment, Jimenez is not going to return quality minor league depth even as a salary dump. Duquette will certainly be looking for those lapses in judgment up to and through this year’s Winter Meetings, but they are hardly something to be relied upon.
That means that any deal moving Jimenez’s salary will likely have to bring salary back in return. The return to aim for involves not prospects or a reliable, everyday starter, but an MLB veteran with niche or limited upside — certainly less upside than Jimenez’s, which is “better than average MLB starting pitcher” — whose contract expires at the end of the season, allowing Baltimore to spend the money and roster spot previously earmarked for Jimenez elsewhere.
The Orioles could use veteran infield depth — some option to push Jonathan Schoop at second base and/or provide a backup option at third if Manny Machado’s second knee rehab in as many years again causes him to miss time to start the season — and if Cleveland has interest in bringing Jimenez back with Baltimore defraying some of the salary, Mike Aviles would be an interesting guy to have come back the other way. The Indians traded Asdrubal Cabrera, their incumbent at short, to the Nationals at the end of last year for their playoff run and need someone to keep the spot warm until elite SS prospect Francisco Lindor is ready to come up; Aviles, who is set to make $3.5 million next season, would be the in-house option for that job. But if Cleveland is willing to be aggressive with Lindor out of the gate — and not play service time games with him — then they might decide Aviles is expendable, given the tradeoff for help in the rotation. Of course, the Orioles arguably might get better value by bringing Kelly Johnson back for another year, but it’s yet to be seen what the market is for his services.
There’s another version of that very same trade concept out there: Jimenez to the Giants for 2B Marco Scutaro. This is a pure salary dump; Scutaro may never even play again, as he spent the end of last season rehabbing a back injury. While he was doing so, he lost his job to rookie Joe Panik, and he likely won’t be getting it back. If he does get healthy and can eke out one more season, though, he could help an Orioles team trying to contend — and even if he doesn’t play, Scutaro is only under contract for 2015 at a $6.67 million price point. If the Orioles are able to send over some money to help cover the last couple seasons, it could work out. But it also relies on Brian Sabean, who has presided over some of the best pitching evaluation in the business over the past decade, actually wanting to acquire a 30 year old righty who can’t repeat his mechanics. At least the Giants should have the money to make it work.
In that same spirit, the Orioles might instead choose to focus on their left field situation and suggest swapping Jimenez for Carlos Quentin of the San Diego Padres. Quentin is due $8 million next season with a $10 million mutual option for 2016 that almost certainly won’t be exercised; his main issue, like Scutaro’s, is his health — Quentin, a nine-year veteran, has never played more than 130 games in a season and has made it over 100 games only three times. A move to Baltimore could be a positive in that it would allow him more time in the DH role, which is good both for his health and for his pitcher on the mound, and the Padres have already made a multi-year commitment to Seth Smith — they could play both Quentin and Smith in the corners now that Chris Denorfia is gone, but that’d be an absolute disaster defensively. More likely the Padres will be willing to listen on Quentin; he has a no-trade clause, but has indicated he’d waive it to go to an AL club like Baltimore. The Orioles’ interest, however, will be tied to how the Nelson Cruz situation sorts itself out; it could be awhile before those talks break open, if last offseason was any indication.
There are some other teams that would be a good fit in a vacuum but who just don’t line up right now; Pittsburgh’s PNC Park should be great for Jimenez in theory, for instance, but there’s no one suitable to come back the other way and the Pirates are even more leery about taking on salary than the Orioles are. The Angels have the money and the need to gamble on a guy like Jimenez, but no MLB guy to send back the other way and a barren farm system — if the O’s did deal him to Los Angeles, one would expect the Angels to be eating almost all the money and sending back some AA relievers in return. The Halos are also already spending almost $80 million on Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson over the next two seasons, and are likely going to be giving Garrett Richards a significant raise to avoid arbitration; combined with the Hamilton/Pujols deals, they might have reached the limit of what owner Arte Moreno is willing to allow.
In the end, the Orioles might be stuck with Jimenez, which is fair: that’s what they signed up for in the first place, and when you give a guy with massive known command issues a four year deal that lasts into his mid-thirties, it’s hard to be surprised when it blows up in your face. Showalter and the O’s have already passed the most important test: they’re willing to remove him from the rotation if he’s not performing, regardless of his how much he’s getting paid.
If Jimenez is destined for another 3 years bouncing between the back of the rotation and the front of the bullpen, so be it. There are worse things in baseball than a $12 million longman. The past has shown, though, that there’s always room to get a deal done.
Jonathan is a contributing writer for VICE Sports. His work has previously appeared in Sports on Earth, Baseball Prospectus, The Classical, and ESPN’s SweetSpot Network. Born in central Maryland, Bernhardt currently lives in the New York metropolitan area.