During this offseason, the Orioles bid farewell to Anthony Santander. While Santander wasn’t quite an irreplaceable superstar, he was still a valuable member of the roster who survived the tanking and contributed to multiple playoff teams.
Now, as we look ahead to the upcoming season, there’s another Oriole who finds himself in a similar position to Santander: Cedric Mullins.
While Mullins isn’t a power-hitting corner outfielder like Santander, he still matches the description of someone who survived the tanking years and has since contributed to multiple playoff teams without quite being a superstar. This will be Mullins’ final season before hitting free agency, presenting the Orioles with another major decision to make on a key starter.
Even if it seems clear that Mullins isn’t likely to repeat his 30/30 campaign of 2021, he’s still been able to provide a combination of hitting and baserunning that has made him a perfectly solid center fielder.
In 2024, Mullins was one of just ten center fielders with an OPS+ above 100 with at least 450 plate appearances and also one of five center fielders to hit 15+ homers while stealing 30+ bases.
However, as the bar graph illustrates, Mullins’ above-average OPS+ still trailed several center fielders by quite a bit. Mullins was still a top-ten center fielder on offense, but there was definitely a gap between him and the top five hitters at his position.
If Mullins produces another season with an OPS+ above 100 with 30 stolen bases, his free agent market will be especially interesting simply due to the lack of good center fielders who have become available in the last two offseasons.
In this current offseason, there have been precisely two primary center fielders signed in free agency: Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor.
Bader and Taylor both failed to post an OPS+ above 90 last season and both of them only earned one-year deals for less than seven million dollars.
Meanwhile, the 2023-24 offseason had a stronger top of the class with Cody Bellinger joining the Chicago Cubs and the San Francisco Giants signing Jung Hoo Lee from South Korea. However, those were the only two center fielders who received a contract with an average annual value above 15 million dollars that offseason.
Mullins could potentially enjoy a competitive free agency as an established center fielder, hitting the market a year removed from an offseason highlighted by the underwhelming duo of Bader and Taylor. Any contender that’s entering this season feeling uneasy about their options in center will certainly be monitoring Mullins with an eye on 2026.
As it stands, Mullins already has the eighth-highest AAV among center fielders according to Sportac at 8.7 million dollars, and it seems reasonable to guess he’d enter free agency looking for an AAV that clears 15 million dollars.
As for the Orioles, their interest in keeping Mullins will likely be influenced by Enrique Bradfield Jr.’s 2025.
In a 2024 spent between high-A and AA, Bradfield Jr. demonstrated his ability to steal plenty of bases. The former Vanderbilt Commodore stole 74 bases on 87 attempts, the second-most steals by anyone in the minors.
Bradfield Jr. also showed a fine ability to make contact, with a 15.4 K% that ranked in the top 60 among over 600 minor leaguers with at least 400 PAs.
However, Bradfield Jr.’s speed and ability to put it in play do come with some concerns over his power. Bradfield Jr. ended his 2024 campaign with just four homers and an isolated power of .099.
While Bradfield Jr. wasn’t expected to regularly produce 30/30 seasons when he was drafted, it’s still reasonable to think he needs to show some more power before being trusted with the center field job on a contending team.
For reference, just 11 hitters in the majors had an isolated power below .100 in at least 400 PAs, and only two of those 11 had an OPS+ above 100.
Bradfield Jr.’s speed will always give him the opportunity to boost his slugging percentage by turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples, but it’s still awfully hard to be an above-average hitter in the majors with that kind of isolated power.
As I mentioned when discussing signing Tyler O’Neill to replace Santander, it’s also impossible to look at this kind of decision without considering the bigger picture of the team’s finances. Mullins is a fine ballplayer, but I can’t imagine anyone would want him to be the reason the Orioles fail to keep players like Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson. If Bradfield Jr. doesn’t seem ready to start on Opening Day in 2026, it seems quite possible they’d look for a cheap short-term option in center like the aforementioned Bader or Taylor.
Mullins arrived in Baltimore in 2018 as the heir apparent to Adam Jones in center, but quickly endured a bumpy 2019 followed by the shortened 2020 season. He overcame those obstacles to become the everyday center fielder for a team that went from losing 110 games to making the postseason in consecutive seasons. Now Mullins finds himself possibly looking at one final year in Baltimore before the torch gets passed to another homegrown center fielder.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).