Looking at the O’s at the All-Star Break

As the Baltimore Orioles prepared to begin their 2012 season, most prognosticators locally and Nationally agreed with the Vegas odds-makers who pegged the O’s at 70 wins. The O’s arrive at the All-Star break, with a little more than half of their season in the rear-view mirror, sporting a 45-40 record. In this post, we look back at what we have seen so far, and look ahead to what remains.

1) The O’s have not finished at or above .500 since 1997. While no flags will fly for 81 or more wins, reaching that goal should matter some for the organization. My opinion on this has changed over the years. There was a point during these consecutive years of losing, where I thought a .500 season was irrelevant. My rationale was that all that mattered was reaching the post-season, and giving yourself an opportunity to win a championship. With that in-mind, I was willing to sacrifice wins in any given season, if that meant the O’s would be better positioned for wins going forward. My opinion here has changed. There are 77 games left in the O’s 2012 season. Baltimore needs to go 36-41 the rest of the way to reach 81 wins. I think it is important that milestone is reached. Mattering in the sense that the organization, and their fans, can have that weight off their shoulders.

2) The O’s are in 2nd place in the AL East, 7 games behind NY. The O’s and Angels are currently the Wild Card leaders in the American League. 6 other teams are within 2.5 games of the O’s and Angels. That includes Toronto, and Boston who are tied for last in the East.

It is an interesting position the O’s are in. Since winning 4 consecutive series in mid-June (@ Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, @ Atlanta) Baltimore has gone just 6-13 in the subsequent 19 games. Still, the O’s are currently right in the mix for being a Playoff team. There is sentiment from some, that with the O’s not having been close to the Playoffs for years, that the organization owes it to themselves and their fans to try and make the moves necessary to sustain contention this year. Conversely there are others who believe there are no moves that can be made which will allow the O’s to win this year, and think the Orioles should be trading off players who would bring back much needed depth to the organization.

When the O’s start their 2nd half Friday vs. Detroit, they will have games everyday from July 13th to the July 31st non-waiver deadline. Those 19 games against the Tigers, Twins, Indians, Rays, A’s, and Yankees will tell which path the O’s take. It seems clear to me that the O’s will not be making D. Bundy, and Machado available for anyone. If the O’s were to make a larger move, it would likely be highlighted around a package consisting of a grouping from Matusz / Arrieta / Britton / Schoop / Bridwell / Avery / Hoes / B. Bundy.

To finish as the 2nd Wild Card, it will likely take around 89 wins. If you are going to give up multiple players with lots of service time on their side, than I think you have to believe the O’s are capable of going 44-33 the rest of the way. I guess there is an argument to be made, that if you are thinking of making a larger move, that you make it now. Giving your current players as much ammunition as possible. Personally, I’d want to see the existing players roll off a few series wins on their own, before making such a move.

3) At the All-Star break Baltimore is:
19th in Runs
26th in Batting Average
26th in On-base %
19th in Slugging
19th in ERA
26th in Quality Starts
15th in Whip
16th in Batting Average Against

On-base % has been an issue all year. As the O’s Slugging numbers have dropped in recent weeks, so have their runs.

4) Against the American League East, Baltimore is 17-15 (28-44 in 2011). On the road, the O’s are 23-20 (30-51 in 2011). The O’s are 16-11-1 in all series played.

Records by Month
April: 14-9
May: 15-13
June: 13-13
July: 3-5

5) There should be room for some improvement from within for the offense in the 2nd half.

Hardy has a .642 OPS (.262 On-base %). In each of the 3 seasons Hardy has had at-least 527 ab’s, he has posted an OPS at or above .786.

Reynolds has a career .808 OPS, and enters the break with a .718 OPS. If he plays everyday during the 2nd half, I think he could provide 15-20 hr’s.

Playing everyday with the Twins in ’11, Thome had 24 xbh’s in 206 ab’s. He also had more walks (40) than k’s (35). He will likely get the chance to stay in the lineup the rest of the way for the O’s, and I think you could see a similar level of production.

A returning Markakis will have a chance to help the lineup, and the defense as well. One possible positive of his stint on the DL, is that he will be rested. He’s played nearly every game of every season the last 5 years. Perhaps with this extra rest for his legs, we will see him finish strong.

6) The rotation has been held together by Hammel and Chen.

Hammel is 8-5, with a 3.47 era. In 106.1 ip, he has allowed 92 hits, 8 hr’s, 38 bb’s, with 101 k’s. His OPS against is .634, and his G/F ratio is 1.21.

Chen is 7-5, with a 3.93 era. In 103 ip, he has allowed 98 hits, 15 hr’s, 33 bb’s, with 78 k’s. His OPS against is .730, and his G/F ratio is 0.63.

It is fair to wonder if Hammel’s knee will impact him in the 2nd half, and it is fair to wonder if Chen will tire out in a 5 man rotation; but you have to be ecstatic overall with what the O’s have received from these two. If the O’s are going to continue to be competitive, these two are going to need to continue to produce.

7) Is there internal hope for the rotation in the 2nd half?

Chris Tillman was outstanding in his 2012 MLB debut vs. Seattle. His mechanics had obviously been refined, and he showed vastly improved velocity and movement over what O’s fans saw out of him in ’11. I liked that he was working up, and down in the zone; and keeping hitters off-balance with his slow curve. Throwing 125 pitches, it was great seeing him still attacking with a fastball between 95-97 in the 9th.

Still, even though he was showing month-to-month progression at Norfolk this year; he was not overwhelming the International League. Even in his last few starts prior to his promotion, he was not going extremely deep in games. I’m trying to keep that in-mind, and pump the brakes some on expectations for the rest of the year. If he can consistently pitch as a 4th or 5th starter, even that would provide a lift to the rotation.

In his 2 July starts for Norfolk, Zach Britton has gone a combined 14 ip, allowing 11 hits, 5 er’s, 1 hr, 6 bb’s with 10 k’s. It is worth remembering that Britton is a guy that in the middle of 2010, was named the 10th best prospect in the game by Baseball America. He gained the experience of 154 Major League innings last year. After a couple of disastrous starts last July, he rebounded with some solid outings last August and September. When he joined the Orioles, there was a lot of talk about him being a nearly finished product. A guy that was going to eat up bats, and get a lot of grounders with his 2 seam FB. Like Tillman, he can provide a lift to the rotation, if he can return and consistently pitch like a 4th or 5th starter.

I believe Arrieta has better pure stuff than most Major League starters. That does not really matter though, if he does not trust his own stuff. With his stuff, I would never be shocked to see the light bulb go on, and him be able to become a solid member of any rotation. I would be surprised to see him become a starter the O’s can rely on at any point during this year though. I think if he is going to help the O’s during the rest of 2012 it will be out of the bullpen.

Between 4/26 and 6/2, Matusz made 8 starts. In 6 of those starts, he went at-least 6ip, allowing 3 er or less. After that point, he lost his last 5 decisions, failing to give the O’s a chance to win.

Back at AAA, he threw a CG shut-out on the 6th. If he is not traded, he will be back-up sooner than later. As we said when he was demoted, I can buy him making a few corrections and getting back to being serviceable, but I think it is becoming more difficult to believe he ever becomes the 2/3 the O’s need him to be.

If Hammel and Chen do not fall off a cliff, and the O’s can ever get 2 of Tillman, Britton, Arrieta, and Matusz contributing something positive; the Orioles will have a great chance to finish at or above .500.

For the O’s to win 89+ games, Hammel and Chen have to match their 1st half production, and the O’s will need another 2nd or 3rd starter from somewhere.

8) While defense has been an issue for the O’s all season, the Orioles are 11th in Defensive Efficiency. This is probably largely correlated to the amount of defensive shifts the O’s have utilized this year.

The most interesting question facing the defense in the 2nd half, is what happens when Markakis returns? Since Reynolds returned from the DL, Showalter and the O’s have shown no indication of wanting to play Reynolds at 3rd. I have found this puzzling as Betemit is not any better than Reynolds at the hot-corner. I can be puzzled all I want, but the result is the same. If Reynolds is not going to play 3rd for the O’s, that leaves 1st base. Thome is going to be the everyday DH. Betemit had a 1.015 OPS in June (8 xbh’s in 68 ab’s) and is going to continue to get time at 3rd.

Getting back to the return of Markakis, the question becomes where will Davis play? Unless Davis replaces Reynolds at 1st, or Betemit at 3rd; the expectation would be in LF. That could be a diffcult proposition for Davis, and could further impact the O’s defense as a whole. However, if Avery remains on the roster, he would be available as a defensive replacement.

9) If the biggest story of the O’s 1st-half is the team exceeding expectations as a whole, the 2nd biggest story was the contract extension for Jones. The extension caught me by surprise. After Duquette was hired, I spent a large portion of the Winter stating I thought a decision on Jones was needed prior to the season beginning. When the year began, and nothing had occurred; I deemed that a mistake.

What Jones did was control what he could control. He went out and dominated the first two months of the season, and helped get the O’s off to a positive start to this year. Would a deal in the off-season have been slightly cheaper? Probably, but I think things worked out pretty much ideally for the O’s. The contract was reasonable to both sides, and the O’s allowed Jones’ play to dictate their decision.

With Jones locked-up, the uncertainty of what is going to happen with Jones is gone. We know that Jones will continue to be a visible face. The focus returns to his play on the field.  Jones has a wOBA of .368. His UZR/150 is 2.8. According to FanGraphs, his WAR is 3.2. He had a medicore June, and has struggled so far in July. There is a lot of pressure on his shoulders, but he has to provide an impact at some-point in every series the O’s play.

With Jones’ extension done, there has been a lot of talk on the BSL Message Board about the extension prospects for Wieters (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=922). I’d like to be suprised again by the O’s taking steps to secure their own existing talent.

10) Machado had a solid June, and has been strong so far in July for Double AA Bowie. D. Bundy overwhelmed the South Atlantic League, and has also been successful for Single A Frederick. I imagine both will be in an O’s uniform for good in late-May, early-June 2013. Might we see either one sooner? I have to wonder if Duquette and Showalter have any concerns about service time.

Might the O’s decide that they are better off promoting Machado to take over 3rd, vs. continuing to go with Betemit everyday, or looking for external help? An in-season full-time position switch might be difficult for Machado (especially while attempting to hit Major League pitching for the 1st time), but you would have to believe the SS would be a better defensive option regardless. With the comments Showalter has made in regards to Hardy, I expect Hardy to finish his contract here in Baltimore. I don’t see the O’s ever asking Hardy to change positions in-season, so it seems to me that Machado will first be asked to man 3rd – even if ascent to the Majors does not occur prior to sometime next year.

With the way the O’s have managed Bundy’s innings, they could have the option of using him in Baltimore later this year. The fact that the O’s have not totally closed the door on that line of thinking, shows that it is something they are internally considering. As opposed to seeing Bundy get late August / early September starts with the O’s, I think you could see him used out of the bullpen an inning or two at a time. That would certainly be interesting to see.

10a) The signing deadline for the O’s 1st round draft pick Kevin Gausman is July 13th. I imagine it comes down to the last moments, but would be surprised if he did not sign.