Looking towards the future of two Ravens defenders

The headline story of the Ravens season has been the emergence of Lamar Jackson as an MVP favorite who has led his team to the best record in the conference. The Ravens are Super Bowl favorites and the Jackson led offense has been a juggernaut, setting the Franchise scoring record after 13 games and threatening to be the first team in NFL history to average both 200 yards rushing and passing over the course of the season.

The offense has been phenomenal by any metric used to measure it, but what it has overshadowed is a quietly dominant defense that has made incredible improvement over the course of the season. In weeks 3 and 4 the Ravens defense gave up 500 yards to opposing offenses in back to back games for the first time in franchise history.

Since that week 4 game against the Cleveland Browns, the defense has steadily improved to become a top 6 unit both in total yards and total points allowed. Remarkably, they have not allowed more than 23 points (Steelers week 5) to any opponent since that game.

There have been a number of factors that led to these defensive improvements including the additions of LBs LJ Fort and Josh Bynes, DE/OLB Jihad Ward and DTs Domata Peko and Justin Ellis, but perhaps the biggest addition was the mid-season trade for CB Marcus Peters. The addition of Peters combined with the return of  Jimmy Smith from a week 1 injury turned a struggling secondary into arguably the best unit in the NFL.

With a coverage unit anchored by Peters, Smith, Marlon Humphrey and Earl Thomas, defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has been empowered to operate the most aggressive blitz defense in the NFL. The attacking nature of the Ravens front has allowed another star to emerge – OLB Matt Judon.

Judon and Peters have arguably been the Ravens most impactful defenders this season, and they share something else in common aside from their outstanding play in 2019 – both will be unrestricted free agents in the coming offseason. The Ravens front office is going to have several important decisions to make on who they re-sign and who they let walk, but Judon and Peters are going to be the biggest two decisions that will have to be made.

Now fortunately for the Ravens, the team is actually in a pretty healthy cap situation going into the 2020 season with Joe Flacco’s contract coming off the books, but both Judon and Peters will command very large contracts and fitting both into the team’s future may be a challenge. It’s certainly possible that both players are retained by the Ravens; they will have the cap space to do so, but if a decision has to be made of one or the other what factors need to be considered? I thought it would be interesting to make an argument for and against both of these outstanding players.

You can discuss the Ravens future roster considerations on our message board.

Marcus Peters:

The impact Peters has made in many ways speaks for itself. He has 3 interceptions (which leads the team) in 7 games with the Ravens; two of which he has returned for TDs. He is Pro Football Focus’s 3^rd highest graded CB on the season, and his coverage for the most part has been outstanding since joining the Ravens. Throughout his career Peters’ play-making ability has been second to none. He has 27 interceptions since entering the league which is by far the best mark of any player in that span; the next closest is Darius Slay with 17. That averages out to close to 6 INTs per season or one every 2.7 games.  The Ravens also have to consider that Jimmy Smith will also be an unrestricted free agent after the 2019 season making CB a fairly significant need. Having a starting CB group of Peters, Humphrey and Tavon Young is highly attractive.

On the flip side, if the Ravens do re-sign Peters they will be committing a very large percentage of their salary cap to the CB position. Young is already signed to an extension, and while Humphrey is still on his rookie contract for two more seasons, he will command a contract that is at minimum equivalent to what Peters will earn. The other concern with Peters is he is below average in run support. We saw in week 13 the Niners break off several big plays when they ran at Peters’ side of the field and he was unable to bring down the RB in the open field. Finally, it has to be mentioned that Peters has been traded twice in his first five seasons in the league. It’s very rare that a player so young and talented to be let go not once but twice. Does that say anything about Peters character or locker room presence? As an outsider It is impossible to say, but some may look at it as a negative.

Bottomline, Peters is a dynamic player and unique talent at CB, but there are some flaws to his game. Do the Ravens want to commit a huge contract to a player that they have had on the team for less than a season? In my opinion the answer is yes, but an argument can certainly be made to focus limited resources elsewhere. Which brings us to the next player in question.

Matt Judon:

Judon, who played his college ball at a division 2 school, was a 5^th round pick by the Ravens in 2016. Correctly labeled as a project coming out of college, Judon had a fairly pedestrian rookie season but broke out in a big way in his second year notching 8 sacks and 19 QB hits and he has steadily improved over his 4 seasons in Baltimore culminating in the current season where Judon has notched a career high 8.5 sacks and is second in the league with 28 QB hits. He is the perfect example of a player that the Ravens have drafted and developed into an extremely productive part of the organization.

Perhaps what makes Judon most valuable to the Ravens is the lack of depth at the OLB position. The Ravens did invest a 3^rd round pick in Jaylon Ferguson who has shown flashes of promise as a rookie, and 3^rd year player Tyus Bowser has had his best season as a Raven. That said, there is no one waiting in the wings that can take over Judon’s production. He is the only consistent pass-rushing threat in the Ravens defensive front.

While Judon has been very productive in his four years in Baltimore posting 27.5 sacks, 44 tackles for loss and 77 QB hits, he has never truly displayed elite edge rushing traits on a consistent basis. In an ideal situation, Judon would be paired with another talented pass rusher, but without another dynamic threat, Martindale has been able to use Judon creatively with a blitz-happy scheme. Judon has been effective in this role, but it also highlights his limitations as a player. Every one of his sacks in 2019 has come on a play where the Ravens have rushed 5+ players. If the Ravens were to move to a different defensive coordinator or scheme that used more four-man rushes, it is possible that Judon’s production would suffer. The Ravens front office will have to evaluate if Judon’s value in the current defense is something that will project forward if he is signed to a long extension.

I think there is one other fundamental question to consider when comparing the value of a CB and a pass-rusher. Traditional thinking would suggest that building a pass-rush is key to defensive success in a pass-happy NFL. However, a recent study by Pro Football Focus suggested that coverage is actually more predictive of defensive success than pass-rush. Of course, this is just one analysis, but we can also see it playing out in the NFL this season as two of the best defenses, Baltimore and New England, have invested far more resources into their secondary than their front seven. Regarding Peters and Judon, the Ravens have the luxury of likely being able to afford both players, but if a choice has to be made, I think Peters is the better long term investment.

Of course in the end it almost always comes down to the price-tag and the Ravens have never been scared to let a player test free agency if the two sides are too far away, so I guess we will have to wait and see how it plays out in the offseason. In the mean-time we can sit back and enjoy the rest of the season.