Many Questions About the Ravens in the Early Going

With three games in the books, suddenly there has become a lot to unpack. Three very close games that could have gone either way leave us with optimistic and pessimistic thoughts. Varying views, but only a little to draw from with 14 games still to go. I’ll try to organize everything on our minds here.

Discuss your thoughts on these topics on our message board.

Are we encouraged that the Ravens have found a way to get to 2-1, or are we concerned by what we’ve seen so far?

I struggle with this one. We’ll get into more of the details in some of the other topics, but the short version is, I think the Vegas and Kansas City games cancel each other out. The Ravens should have put Vegas away and didn’t, Kansas City should have put the Ravens away and didn’t. Most of us expected a 1-1 start, just not in that order.

That brings us up to Detroit where if Marquise Brown brings his hands, we’re looking at a 20+ point halftime lead and maybe a different second half all together. I expect him to bring his hands often. I expect as wide open as he was on those three drops that Lamar keeps going to that well. But he must stop dating him and have eyes for other receivers because in two straight games he has forced passes in Brown’s direction leading to interceptions. One that basically should have won the game for Lions. More to discuss, but I am concerned that the Ravens even allowed Detroit to be a competitive in that game, much less needing to do almost the impossible, twice, to win. Convert a 4th and 19 and then kick a 66-yard FG.

In 2019 the Ravens outscored their opponents by on average 15.5 points per game. Win a game by two scores and I’ll be more encouraged than concerned.

Why is Ty’son Williams seeing so little action?

I guess they want to keep him on a pitch count. Allow his younger legs to last all season. But wouldn’t veteran legs be susceptible to wearing down as the season goes on as well? Since they are older? I don’t know why he isn’t getting not enough touches. Greg Roman is doing a poor job managing the share of carries. Williams doesn’t have to tote it 25 times a game like Derrick Henry. But 15, with Lamar Jackson sharing the load should be very doable, and not wear him out. Professional athletes we’re talking about here guys.

Are we missing something when harping on Latavius Murray’s shortcomings?

They guy is 6’3”, 230 lbs, and has broken one tackle in 26 attempts so far. Strength must not be matching his size. Murray has one broken tackle and his longest run in three games is eight yards. On the other hand, undrafted rookie, Ty’Son Williams, has just one more carry than Murray at 27, and has forced five missed tackles, while six of his carries have gone 10 yards or more.

At this point Roman continuing to give both Murray and Williams an equal timeshare, is just plain not getting the ball in your best players hands enough, and long term must be lowering the probability of wins, or lowering the expected points added (EPA) that you know that analytics guys are tracking all game.

So…no, we aren’t missing anything, and I think the anger in the carry share is justified.

Is time up for Le’Veon Bell and do we make a move for the Colts, Marlon Mack?

Bell went unprotected this week, allowing anyone to poach him off the Ravens Practice Squad. I wonder if the Ravens are just not happy with what he’s brought in a few weeks of practice. Could the mentality be if he gets claimed by another team, so be it?

I think the Ravens have the draft ammo to make a trade for Marlon Mack. They sit with two third round picks, three fourth rounds picks, and are estimated to get two more fourth round picks as compensation for Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakoue. Ngakoue was acquired from Minnesota last year for a 2021 third and a 2022 fifth. Would a fourth-round pick alone get Mack, who was a healthy scratch last week, and coming off a week 1 Achilles tear ending his 2020 campaign? I think so. If the Colts want a conditional 2023 pick, okay. They could get him under the salary cap. He’s a free agent after this year so if Mack produces, and walks, perhaps you get 2023 draft compensation for him. He’s only 25 years old. It’s not a 31-year-old you’re kicking the tires on (Murray). Mack averages a broken tackle every seven rushes, and a 10+ yard run every nine totes. I think the ability is there given the opportunity. I think it makes sense from a front office view with the draft picks and the salary. I’m all for it.

Marquise Brown is on pace for around 80 catches, 1,250 yards, and 11 scores. Do the drops mean you stop going to that well?

As I began to say earlier. If he is as open as he gets, you must go to that well. If Jackson ignores wide open receivers, then he isn’t doing his job as a QB. Brown dropping wide open balls will land him in the doghouse if it doesn’t get cleaned up. Not to mention, two hungry wideouts just returned to practice from IR in rookie Rashod Bateman, and guy with something to prove, Miles Boykin.

What to make of Lamar Jackson in the passing game since his yards per attempt sits at an elite 8.7, compared to his career mark of 7.6.

We know he can pass the ball with the best. He led the league in TD passes in his MVP campaign. But I think passing is opened a lot by how the running game performs. Not just his contribution. Which is why it’s important to establish one to set up good passing attack. That was something the Ravens didn’t do against Detroit as they were very pass happy to the tune of 35 drop backs to only 22 rushes, and a few of those rushes at least also being drop backs that turned into scrambles. Still, he probably has a 300 yard and four TD game if some guys brought their hands. As great a passer as Jackson is, I still don’t want to see a lack of commitment to running the ball, and force Jackosn to be a traditional pocket passer.

Overall level of concern for Ronnie Stanley?

I’d say a 5 out of 10. He was roughed up in the season opener. Perhaps this ankle injury was a factor. I think the Ravens can make it work without him for now because Jackson is such a dynamic playmaker. Villanueva has been great in Stanley’s absence since week 1 going back to the left side. Jackson has had some nice pockets to step up and throw from. But a healthy Stanley can only make you better. They can get by for now, so rehab, get to 100%, and it’ll be more important to have him later in the season.

What do we need to see the defense do scheme wise? Ideally you would have Marlon Humphry and Marcus Peters on an island and disguise blitz pressure from there. Are they still trying to figure it out without Peters? Missing three starters in the Ravens front seven last week didn’t help matters.

I just want to see them adjust game by game, half by half. You are going to run into quarterbacks who feast on blitz pressure. Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes to name a couple. This week the Ravens face Teddy Bridgewater in Denver, who has eaten that blitz pressure up as well. When teams don’t blitz, he’s completing 74.6% of his passes at a passer rating of 109.0. When he is blitzed, it goes up to an 82.1% completion rate and a 130.2 passer rating. So maybe this week you treat Bridgewater like Mahomes and try to get home with a four-man rush.

Bridgewater also will make you cover all three levels in the passing game as completes 91% of his passes under 10 yards. 82% between 10-19 yards, and he is 7-18 for 38.9% on passes over 20 yards. Over a full year, 38.9% is around the bottom of the top 10. He ranked 5^th in that category in 2019 at 45.5%. So, this week, you have you keep those zero safeties, 11 in the box looks out of the playbook.

Adjust week to week because in week 5, Carson Wentz, if he is still the starting quarterback for the Colts, his numbers against blitz pressure are horrendous. If you blitz, he completes 56.7% of those passes. If you pressure him at all, blitz or not, his completion rate drops to 44.2%. He is significantly worse on passes 10 or more yards downfield, so some more press coverage, jam those guys early on. Mess up the timing, make him beat you with longer throws. That’s a game where if Don Martindale wants to play it the way he loves, show 11 in the box against Wentz, I’m good with that. This week, not so much. So, adjust game to game in that respect.

There were a lot of reasons to give Patrick Queen a pass for an oddball 2020 season where he struggled as a rookie. Had an exciting preseason, but old habits a showing up again. Caught in the wash, bad tackling. Who is this guy?

Last week wasn’t good for the second-year linebacker. But you missed Brandon Williams and Justin Madibuike up front, and those guys are space eaters who let the linebackers fly around and make plays. Furthermore, next to Queen, his fellow second year mate, Malik Harrison, played only 17 snaps. Outside of that, Queen has made a few run stops to keep opposing offenses from getting into more manageable down and distance situations. But his coverage is still lacking. His tackling is lacking at times. He’s nowhere near a bust, yet, and it’s a long season to turn things around. The potential is there. Don’t forget he did win a defensive player of the week award last season. I think last week the unvaccinated let him down. But he’s a first round pick in year two so if it doesn’t start clicking soon, then when? He’ll be under the microscope for sure.

Thoughts on the upcoming Broncos, and keys to the game for the Ravens

The Denver Broncos haven’t played anyone good. 0-9. Giants, Jags, Jets. I mentioned Teddy Bridgewaters passing prowess so far this year No offense, but anyone should be that good against those teams. That early schedule should make any team’s offensive and defensive efficiencies look great. Teddy Bridgewater is a solid, game managing quarterback. He’s not likely to turn the ball over, so for the Ravens, they must protect the ball which they have struggled to do. Lamar Jackson put the ball on the ground twice in crucial times in the Raiders games. Put the Ravens in a hole early but dug them out in the Chiefs game. Played like an MVP aside from yet another boneheaded interception late in Detroit. Close games, you must protect the ball. The line is Denver by 1, odds are this is a close game.

Don’t turn the ball over and give your defense plenty of rest in the thin air. Ravens should aim to have over 35 minutes of possession which means a lot of running the ball effectively, which means less Latavius Murray, more Ty’Son Williams, make Denver be the one gasping for oxygen on the sidelines. I’ll be interested to so if Le’Veon Bell or Nate McCrary get the promotion from the Practice Squad. Given the narrow line, the inability to protect the football, the Ravens seem like a coin flip against any team right now. But this will be the first real test of the year for Denver. I think the Ravens win, though yet again, not convincingly.