Maryland Heads To Virginia In Week 3

Coming off of a bitterly disappointing Week 2 loss to Michigan State at home, Maryland now heads to Virginia to face the Cavaliers.

The 1-1 Terrapins face their old Atlantic Coast Conference foe Virginia at 8pm Saturday night.

The Cavs enter the game 2-0, with wins over Richmond (34-13), and Wake Forest (31-30).

ESPN’s Match-up Predictor gives MD a 67% chance of winning.

The Terps are a 2.5 point favorite.

These teams played last year in College Park, with Maryland winning 42-14.

Thoughts On Last Week

Last Saturdays’ loss to the Spartans was incredibly frustrating if you are a Terps fan; but not all together shocking.
MD entered last week a 9 point favorite, with ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor giving the Terps a 82.5% chance of winning.

In our write-up, I stated I felt MD should have been favored, and that I expected them to win; but also felt that the spread and percentage seemed high.
It was a conference game of two relatively equal programs.

The frustration comes from the missed opportunity.

Multiple things can be true at once.

It’s true that the Terps have gone to and won bowl games in 3 successive years.
It’s also true that the fanbase hasn’t bought in.

It’s true that recruiting both in the high school ranks and through the portal are good.
It’s also true that MD has yet to breakthrough with significant unexpected wins.

It’s true that MD has generally been winning the games they should win.
It’s also true that MD lost back-to-back games last year vs. Illinois, and at Northwestern where they probably should have won.

This loss was another game MD should have won.
It’s another loss that leaves meat on the bone.

The Big Ten is currently loaded as a conference.
My sense has always been that MD as a program has to basically put the blinders on and concentrate on controlling what they can control.
Meaning you can’t erase the interest or spending which exists at some of their Big Ten brethren.
That’s not actionable.
You have to simply focus on how do I make the program better today than it was yesterday?
Stack wins (improved facilities, getting into the bowl cycle, improved recruiting, improved coaching staff, etc) and show consistent progress.

You are trying to build, and incrementally take steps.

What happens when you lose a game like last week, is that it’s deflating for the program as a whole.
If you’ve been a Coach Locksley supporter, your resolve cracks, and you wonder if he is the correct person to lead the program.
If you’ve been doubting the direction all along, it’s that much easier to point to a game like this and say, “See, I told you!”

My general take is the Locksley has done a commendable job.
He’s put the program on solid footing.
It’s been reasonable to think the program is ascending.
I’ve also thought it’s been reasonable to wonder if MD can take that next step as a program where they become a regular Top 25 team, and win some of the games they weren’t anticipated to.

Again multiple things can be true at once.

Last year MD beat up Michigan State at East Lansing.
This year they lose at home vs. the Spartans new Coach.
Every Terps fan wanted to feel like there was growing distance in MD’s favor between the programs.
Instead you come out of last week, thinking you are on the same plane of existence. Which in this case means not good enough to be counted on to win against the middle-tier and below of the conference, let alone the contenders.

A hard lesson in life is that you don’t get to go back to moments in time.
There aren’t do overs.
All you can ever do is try and learn from the past and look forward.

Maryland doesn’t get to replay last week.
As such, the confidence meter for the program took a step back.
Hopefully the lesson learned for MD is that there are only so many opportunities.
When you are trying to secure wins and show you are ready step up in class, you can’t drop the games you are expected to win.
And when you step on the field with like competition, you aren’t just going to be handed a W.

Narrowing the focus to just what happened between the lines last week: 

• MD allowed 495 yards of offense to Michigan State.  The Terps Secondary is supposed to be good. Too many bad beats. MSU WR Nick Marsh had 194 yards on 8 grabs.
• Terps lost despite winning the turnover battle 3-1.
• Felt bad for Jack Howes not making his 2nd FG, but MD needed that kick and the two score lead it would have brought.
• Another huge game for Tai Felton.  Kaden Prather had 5 grabs. Dylan Wade had 4, including 1 TD.  Need more production behind Felton.
• Billy Edwards was 26 of 34, but the windows were tighter for him than vs. UConn.
• MD has quality RB’s.  The Terps having 31 carries for 86 yards is an indictment on the run blocking in-front of them.

 

Virginia And What Follows

After facing the Cavs, MD returns home for Villanova.

That’s followed by a trip to Indiana, and then home for Northwestern.

Villanova is 2-0 (wins over Youngstown St, and Colgate). The Wildcats host Towson this weekend.
Villanova is #5 currently in the FCS.

Indiana is 2-0, having outscored FIU and W. Illinois 108-10.  Indiana travels to LA this weekend to face UCLA.

Northwestern is 1-1, beating Miami of Ohio, and losing to 26-20 to Duke at home.

Obviously Villanova is a must win.
Virginia, Indiana, and Northwestern are all expected wins, and also all games you could lose.

MD needs to go on a run here, and put some w’s on the board before hosting USC for Homecoming Oct. 19th.

Quick Hits on UVA

• Every preseason prediction I saw of ACC standings had UVA near the bottom of the conference.
• Head Coach Tony Elliott is in his 3rd season as are his Offensive and Defensive Coordinators.
• Safety Jonas Sanker was on the All-ACC Preseason Team.
• Sophomore QB Anthony Colandrea has thrown for 654 yards, 5 TD’s, and 2 picks so far.
• RB’s Koby Pace and Xavier Brown have combined for 33 carries for 186 yards.
• WR Malachi Fields leads UVA with 16 catches for 248 yards.  WR Trell Harris has 9 catches for 123 yards, and 2 scores.
• TE Tyler Neville has 5 catches and 2 TD’s.
• UVA has 7 sacks in the first two weeks, spread out amongst 8 players (two have half a sack).
• UVA’s defense has yet to record a pick.
• Phil Steele had LB Cam Robinson on his 4th Team All-ACC Preseason Team.