After a bye week, the University of Maryland hosts Northwestern Friday night.
The Terps are a disappointing 3-2 overall, 0-2 in the Big Ten.
The disappointment being that their two losses (Michigan State, and at Indiana) are to two teams they clobbered last year by a combined score of 75 to 26.
Both the Spartans and Hoosiers wound up bringing in new Head Coaches, and these were games MD anticipated splitting at a minimum here in 2024.
Losing both of those games has reduced MD’s potential ceiling for this year, and left the Terps basically without any margin of error.
MD’s remaining schedule is:
Northwestern
USC
@ Minnesota
@ Oregon
Rutgers
Iowa
@ Penn State
Oregon and PSU are currently ranked 3rd and 4th in the country.
If MD pulls the gargantuan upset in either game, great.
Obviously that is not expected.
In the other games, ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor gives MD these percentage chances of winning:
Northwestern 86.8%
USC 45.1%
@ Minnesota 47.4%
Rutgers 63.2%
Iowa 51%
So, MD is currently expected to finish 6-6.
Each of those five games are winnable.
If they were to run the table in those five, and lose to Oregon and Penn State; than MD would finish the regular season 8-4, and be heading to a decent bowl.
With them losing both of the Michigan State and Indiana games though, it makes it hard to believe they can be consistent enough to win each of these five games, including the would-be slight upsets vs. USC, and at Minnesota.
Have To Beat Northwestern First
The Wildcats are 2-3 overall, and 0-2 in the Big Ten.
Northwestern has lost their last two games at Washington, and home vs. Indiana.
MD is a 10.5 point favorite in this game.
NW is in the 2nd year with David Braun at the helm, after the 16 year Pat Fitzgerald era ended unceremoniously in the Summer before the 2023 season.
Sophomore QB Jack Lausch had a solid game vs. the Hoosiers, going 23 of 38 for 243 yards, with 2 TD’s.
He’s regarded as a good athlete.
Senior QB Mike Wright had two starts (Duke, and Miami of Ohio) earlier in the season.
Senior RB Cam Porter leads NW with 249 yards on 50 carries (5 yards per carry), and has 4 TD’s.
Just 6 receptions so far this year for Porter, after 21 grabs last year.
Sophomore RB Joseph Himon only has 23 carries so far this season, but is averaging 5.5 yards per.
Senior WR AJ Henning leads NW with 31 receptions, for 296 yards, and 3 TD’s.
Fellow Senior WR Bryce Kirtz is second on the Wildcats with 268 yards on 22 catches.
PK Jack Olsen is 7 of 10 on his FG attempts.
NW has 12 sacks on the year.
Sophomore DL Anto Saka (Baltimore) leads the Wildcats with 2.5 sacks.
Junior DL Aidan Hubbard has 2, as does Junior LB Mac Uihlein.
Senior LB Xander Mueller leads NW with 36 total tackles.
NW has 4 picks, with 4 different different DB’s each having 1.
Mueller received votes on the Preseason All Big-Ten Team.
Phil Steele had Mueller on his Preseason 1st Team All Big-Ten.
Steele had Henning as his 2nd Team KR, and William Hayward as 2nd Team Long Snapper.
Kirtz made Steele’s 3rd Team Big Ten, and S Devin Turner was on Steele’s 4th team.
Some Maryland Stats Through Five Games
Billy Edwards has thrown for 1,444 yards, with a 72.3% completion percentage. He has 11 TD’s, vs 2 picks.
Running wise, Edwards has just 36 yards on 32 attempts.
Roman Hemby leads the Terps with 60 attempts, and 318 yards (5.3 ypc). He has 3 TD’s.
Nolan Ray has 34 attempts, and a 5.1 ypc average.
Colby McDonald has 27 attempts, and a 5.5 ypc average.
Tai Felton has 46 receptions in 5 games, for 642 yards, and 5 TD’s.
Kaden Prather has 26 receptions, and 3 TD’s.
TE Dylan Wade has 12 grabs, and is averaging 15.3 yards per catch.
PK Jack Howes is 7 of 9 on his FG attempts, missing once from 40-49, and once from 50+.
P Bryce McFerson is averaging 46.38 yards on his punts.
The Terps have 10 sacks in 5 games, with Caleb Wheatland leading with 2.
MD has 8 picks so far, with Glendon Miller having 4, and Jalen Huskey having 3.
Quick Hits
- Edwards has been better than I expected. I liked what we saw from him as a backup, but wasn’t sure about his arm. He has more arm strength than I anticipated, and has consistently made good decisions. He’s shown previously to be a quality runner. I’m sure MD is trying to protect him, but I wouldn’t remove that element from his game.
- The RB’s are very solid. Felton has been outstanding at WR. Prather, and Wade have been good. I would like to see some of the other skill talent (Octavian Smith, Shaleak Knotts, and Preston Howard) get move involved.
- The O-Line was never going to be a strength this year, but it’s not quite the liability some worried it would be going into the season. There is a lot of quality, young depth in the 2 and 3 deep. Where appropriate, you’d like to see a couple of younger guys get their feet increasingly wet as the year progresses.
- All 3 levels of the defense has some ability. You can see the recruiting classes beginning to stockpile. MD has length and athleticism. It hasn’t fully translated to results. They allowed 510 yards to Indiana. Yes, the Hoosiers have some talent, and Coach Cignetti might be a rising star, but still. It’s been frustrating to see them beat over the top a number of times with obvious communication issues. When they play elite teams like Oregon and Penn State, you expect that they will be further exposed. But the talent is good enough that in the other 5 games, they should give MD a chance. This is college, so unless you are an elite defense, you are going to give up plenty of yards and points. Good defense is measured solely by your ability to get off the field when needed on 3rd down, and by creating turnovers.
- Maryland’s had good punters before (Brooks Barnard, and Adam Podlesh come to mind), but McFerson might be the best we’ve seen.
- The discipline needs to be improved coming out of the bye. Less self-inflicted errors.
Final Thoughts Before Northwestern
The student section will probably have decent representation.
The rest of the Stadium figures to be dead.
Maybe playing Friday night helps.
Regardless, The Terps absolutely have to win this game.
No excuses, and they should look good doing having had additional time to prepare and get healthy.
Win here, and get the confidence back up.
If you do that, maybe you can catch USC and start to build some momentum.
As shown above, USC will be a slight favorite, but that’s a game MD can win.
Being Homecoming against a name program, that’s probably the best atmosphere MD will have in a game.
If you want that game to have any importance, you have to beat NW first.
There is still a path for MD to salvage this season, and continue to build on the slow incremental progress the program has had the last few years.
There is also a path for things to go totally sideways, and those odds were increased by losing to both Michigan State and Indiana.
The focus and performance of this team coming out of their bye and facing NW will definitely tell you something.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.