With a franchise tag tender signed last week, Matt Judon officially will remain with the Ravens next season barring a trade. The tag buys the Ravens some time, and obviously they are probably hopeful that they get a breakout season from Jaylon Ferguson while Calais Campbell helps relieve some of the pressure on both of them.
When you look at the books the Ravens are keeping, it becomes clear that they have prioritized contracts for secondary players. Earl Thomas got a big deal last year, Marcus Peters got a big deal in December. Tavon Young got a deal he probably hasn’t lived up to yet. Chuck Clark. Jimmy Smith. For years, the Ravens have been more on the side of coverage versus pass rush as that debate rages into public consciousness. I must admit, I was surprised that the Ravens did as well as a pass defense as they did last season when they didn’t find a real replacement for Terrell Suggs. It took a lot of blitzing by Don Martindale to cover up things, and I think you can pin some of the early-season run defense problems on that aggressiveness, but once they acquired Peters the Ravens largely settled down.
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Baltimore has only gone further into that light this offseason, re-upping Pernell McPhee and spending two of their picks in the first three rounds on Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison rather than addressing EDGE rusher. Any rational analysis of the Ravens right now probably has to conclude that this group on the EDGE is one of the three weakest areas of the team. It feels, especially given how many picks the Ravens had, less like an oversight and more like an intentional decision.
There are many, many impacts of COVID-19 that haven’t really begun to unfold yet. (Boy, that’s a jarring transition from football to the real world we live in!) One of them, and one that I think is especially worth watching with regards to Judon, is that the salary cap may wind up going down, or at the very least, remaining stagnant. While I think the Ravens can shed enough cap to keep their impact players if they want to, I think it remains an open question how much they believe Judon is really worth. He’s certainly not likely to be priority No. 1 over Ronnie Stanley, and the 2022 class of Ravens free agents is potentially pretty deep as well.
Judon as a free agent is an interesting question because most pass rushers that perform as well as he did don’t come out of late round or UDFA profiles. Let’s compare to some of the contracts we saw signed the last two offseasons:
Trey Flowers:
Sacks (2018-19) = 14.5
Pressures (2018-19) = 89.5
Contract: 5 years, $90M, $56M guaranteed
Offseason Signed: 2019
Za’Darius Smith:
Sacks (2018-19) = 22
Pressures (2018-19) = 96
Contract: 4 years, $66M, $20M guaranteed
Offseason Signed: 2019
Dante Fowler
Sacks (2018-19) = 15.5
Pressures (2018-19) = 65.5
Contract: 3 years, $45M, $29M guaranteed
Offseason Signed: 2020
Robert Quinn
Sacks (2018-19) = 15.5
Pressures (2018-19) = 63
Contract: 5 years, $70M, $30M guaranteed
Offseason Signed: 2020
Matt Judon
Sacks (2018-19) = 16.5
Pressures (2018-19) = 73.5
Contract: Franchise Tag
Offseason Signed: 2020
I think Smith is an interesting comparison because he only really had one premium pass-rush season before signing with the Packers. Judon might get singled out by other teams as having his numbers inflated by playing on a pressure-heavy defense, but Smith probably should have received the same scrutiny.
Of course, now we have to weigh that against what actually happens with the cap. But let’s say that, theoretically, the Ravens could lock in Judon with a five-year, $75 million deal with $35 million in guarantees. That doesn’t quite get him to Flowers money, but it values him higher than Robert Quinn and Dante Fowler. Would that be a deal the Ravens would sign? I kinda don’t think so given how the money has not been flowing to this position. And that’s assuming that Judon is willing to sign a contract I find pretty reasonable, which isn’t always a rational assumption.
Judon is a solid pass rusher, but I think one of the biggest questions the team faces going forward is just how important that is to them. At every turn over the past few offseasons, what their actions have told us is that it’s not a big deal.
Ravens Analyst
Rivers McCown is a writer and editor who has written for ESPN.com, Bleacher Report, USA Today, and Deadspin, among other places. He’s edited for Football Outsiders, Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue.