For years, the Baltimore Ravens have worked a particular kind of football magic. More so than any other franchise, they have turned mostly anonymous Day 3 draft picks into franchise pass rushers. Starting with Adalius Thomas in the early 2000s, the system has consistently produced studs who can reliably generate pressure on the quarterback and set up the rest of the defense.
Just as importantly, the Ravens have built a program that produces these pass rushers on such a consistent basis that the club can afford to let most of them leave soon after the expiration of their rookie deals. When one departs, another typically takes his place without any noticeable interruption.
In 2019, Matthew Judon became the latest star to emerge from Baltimore’s pass-rush pipeline. Following the offseason departure of Za’Darius Smith, himself a Day 3 draft pick turned defensive star, Judon took over as the Ravens’ lead pass rusher. Without Smith to draw blocks, Judon saw more double teams than at any point in his career. That didn’t prevent him from producing his finest campaign to date, registering 72 total pressures and a pressure rate of 16.4%, according to Pro Football Focus. Judon also recorded a career-best 9.5 sacks, the top mark on the team.
The breakout could not have come at a better time for Judon, whose contract expired this offseason. Just 27 years old and widely viewed as an emerging star, Judon could have commanded a contract similar to the four-year, $66 million deal Smith signed with the Green Bay Packers or the five-year, $90 million pact Trey Flowers received from the Detroit Lions. But rather than let Judon test the free-agency waters like his predecessor, the Ravens opted to apply the franchise tag. In doing so, the team set the table for a potential long-term extension that would satisfy both sides.
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However, any plans to lock in Judon to a new deal quickly dissipated during a pandemic-ravaged offseason. With no clear outlook for the 2021 salary cap and even the upcoming season still on somewhat-shaky ground, the Ravens determined the safest path forward involved Judon playing out the year under the tag and re-evaluating their options next winter.
In a normal year, the lack of a new deal would set Judon up for a prove-it season and, if successful, an even more lucrative offseason than the one that just concluded. However, with the NFL expecting an earnings shortfall in the billions due to COVID-19, the salary cap could dramatically constrict for the first time in decades. If the league and the players union fail to work out a deal on how to smooth financial losses, most teams will have to shed considerable player salary in order to comply with the cap next year. That necessarily would harm Judon’s market and reduce his leverage in negotiations.
But while salary-cap doomsday could arrive next March, the NFL and NFLPA have plenty of reason to agree on an alternative plan. The two sides have already begun negotiations on how to alleviate the financial pain and could have a deal in place by Sunday, according to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. If they agree to spread the hit over the length of the recently signed collective-bargaining agreement, teams could experience only a modest decline in available cap, aiding Judon’s cause.
Even so, a deal between the league and union to limit the cap shortfall could still put the Ravens in a difficult position. While they would enter next offseason with more than $40 million in available space assuming minimal change in the unadjusted salary cap, the front office has already earmarked much of that money for a long-term extension with franchise quarterback Lamar Jackson and All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley, among others. The structure and payout of Jackson’s eventual deal remain in flux due to the number of signal-callers expected to sign extensions before him while Stanley’s demands have likely soared since Laremy Tunsil reset the market for offensive tackles earlier this year. Judon holds great value to the Ravens defense, but securing Jackson and Stanley takes precedence.
Furthermore, the Ravens do have some promising edge rushers in the pipeline. Outside linebacker Jaylon Ferguson showed promise as a rookie, finishing second on the team in total pressures (32) despite playing just 51% of defensive snaps. His 6-foot-5, 275 pounds frame also provides him with positional flexibility that Judon, who spent approximately 84.5% of his defensive snaps at left or right outside linebacker, comparatively lacks. While Baltimore can offer no guarantee that Ferguson develops into the next stud pass rusher, his upside and status as a former second-round pick could convince management to give him a larger role in the future.
Likewise, Tyus Bowser emerged last year as a meaningful contributor to the pass rush, notching five sacks and 10 quarterback hits, each second only to Judon on the team. While Bowser’s contract also expires following the 2020 season, the Ravens could bring him back on a more-affordable deal.
Given the Ravens’ longstanding practice of letting good but non-elite defenders depart in free agency and the probability that the NFL and NFLPA work out a deal to prevent a precipitous drop in cap space next year, Judon seems likely to stamp his ticket out of Baltimore with a solid or better 2020 season. While losing a player of his caliber would represent a blow to the roster, the franchise has weathered similar storms before. That notion might not alleviate concerns now, but history suggests Baltimore will come out the other side in a strong position.
Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning sports journalist and Pro Football Writers of America member. He has bylines at NFL.com, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, and other outlets.