MD Terps, 11-2 with room to improve

After the Georgetown loss, I said the Terps needed to win 16 of these 19 games to dance:

12/3 Michigan
12/7 GW at Verizon
12/12 Delaware State
12/22 American
12/27 Byrant
12/30 Elon
1/3 Charlotte
1/7 Morgan State
1/10 GaTech (W)
1/14 @Miami (L)
1/17 @FSU (L)
1/20 UVA (W)
1/27 BC (W)
1/31 Miami (W)
2/8 @GaTech (W)
2/14 VaTech (W)
2/17 @Clemson (L)
3/1 @NCST (W)
3/7 @UVA (W)

These were/are the remaining 8 OOC games, and 11 conference games excluding UNC, Duke, and Wake.

At the time, I said that I had MD beating GaTech, UVA, BC, Miami, and VaTech at home for 5 wins… going 3-3 vs GaTech, Miami (L), FSU (L), Clemson (L), NCST, and UVA on the road… I said when that was combined with the Terps going 8-0 in the remaining OOC, MD would be 20-10 heading to the ACCT.

The RPI will be strong because of the ACC, and having had played MSU, Gonzaga, and Georgetown. MSU on a neutral court will be a strong victory… Michigan, and the 5 conference wins at home will be solid, the 3 conference road wins will be solid… and Vermont, American and Morgan are all capable of winning their conferences (Am East, Patriot, MEAC).. Not going to help, but not games that should pull down your overall weight either. 20-10 (8-8) in this scenario would have them on the bubble… a win in the ACCT will have them in. A win over any of UNC, Duke, or Wake to get to 9-7 would also have MD in.

Each of those teams have improved, but MD was 3-2 vs those 3 teams last year, and MD is deeper and more talented overall, even without Boom, and Gist.

Well…. While I still believe all of that to be true… I think it is time to raise expectations. Not just for next year, when MD can return their top 11 and add two players to help address the most glaring need…. But right now, for the 2008-9 season.. Expectations should be raised.

Expectations can be raised, because of what has been shown already, and where MD can improve as the year progresses.

Examples:

1) Turnovers have been limited… avg 12.1 per game… this will increase in ACC play, but that is somewhat ok. They will increase in league play, not just because of the opposition, but because the style of play will be more up and down… while you do not like to turn the ball over, up and down, full-court play is what this team does best… so even when the TO % increases, it will be livable.

2) MD is shooting 80% from the FT line… You could argue this is because MD’s bigs are not getting to the line enough, to drag the % down… but whatever the reason, the fact remains the guards/wings are getting to the line and knocking down shots… in close league games, this will be the difference several times.

3) The rebounding is better than advertised. MD won on the boards against Michigan St, Michigan, GW, and Charlotte… each of those teams have similar athletes to the ACC… so even if rebounding is not a strength, it will not be as big a weakness as first suspected. In-fact, MD won the boards 36-25 against Charlotte… the same 49ers team that beat Clemson on the boards 40-38.

4) Mosley, Tucker, and Gregory off the bench is a strength…. Each of those 3 play very hard, and bring a lot of positives to the table… If Mosley’s ankle is healing… and his scoring against Charlotte is indicative of what he will do the rest of the year… watch-out. Tucker has had 5 pretty strong games in a row… Gregory has fallen-off a bit since his top games against Michigan, GW, and Delaware St…. But he is still giving some blocked shots, and boards… would like to get him contributing with a few more points vs Morgan.

5) Burney has been out since 12/12… injury was described as a 3-6 week injury… if they can get him back, his strengths (rebounding and shot-blocking) can be maximized with a team that does not need him to score.

6) JSK has contributed about as much as can be expected for a guy that advanced a class, missed most of fall-practice, and is deep at the guard/wing positions. Gary is finding him more time then a guy like Milbourne had his frosh year… I have to believe that is Gary rewarding his effort in practice. I believe if a team zones us to death in league play, that JSK can make a difference shooting over the top.

7) Neal has scored in double figures 4 times, and 9 pts twice…. He is what he is, but he has shown he can hit an open shot… and that has helped… he is shooting 45% from 3, and 79% from the line…

8) As a Frosh at New Mexico, Osby avg 1.6ppg, and 1.9 boards. As a Soph at Paris Texas JUCO College, he avg 6ppg, and 5 boards. He worked hard, and developed his game at MD. Dupree was willing to work this past off-season… dropped 25lbs… got in better condition. He has not regularly shown the talent that allowed him to dominate the Baltimore Catholic League, and made him a Top 65 National player… but he has done more in his first two years, then Osby did in his first two years of college. Dupree can also emerge if he is willing to continue to work. In only 15mts per game, he has 7 games with at least 4 boards… which shows his effort is there, even if his confidence is not. I am looking for the player that against Michigan St, had 7pts, 6boards, and 2 blocks….

9) Bowie is in a 3pt shooting slump, making only 1 of his last 12…. As hard as he worked this summer, you know that he will just as hard in the gym now to get that stroke back…. He has scored in double figures 7 times… shooting 76% from the line… getting steals, and even boards…. Adds quicks to the starting team, and gives the team another guard that can handle the ball. If like me, you are encouraged when Hayes shoots the ball, then you have to like that he is avg 8.5 FGA in 30mts per game, vs 7.7 FGA in 33mts per game last year… shooting 95% from the line… has 9 games in double figures… Milbourne is shooting 52% from the field, vs 43.5% from the field last year… and is doing so, while taking 2.8 more shots per game. Has scored in double figures 9 times this year, including 7 games in a row. Has 7 games with at least 5 boards… shooting 82.5% from the FT line… has lowered his TO ratio, while increasing his steals, and blocks… he will take his lumps at the 4 in league play, but he will also be able to things other 4s can not.

10) Vasquez is playing about 4mts less per game vs last year, and is off the ball more… that has allowed him to conserve energy, and become an even better scorer. His FG% is up just slightly, but his 3pt% has gone from 31% last year to 37% this year… his FT% has gone from 78% last year, to 92.5% this year… Vasquez had 2pts, and only 7shots vs Georgetown… that will not happen again, and I would love to see MD get another shot vs the Hoyas in the NCAAs.

We will all know a lot more about MD after the next 5 games:

1/7 Morgan
1/10 GaTech
1/14 @Miami
1/17 @FSU
1/20 UVA

Clearly, all 5 of those games are winnable, and the Terps have to win 3.

I previously went a safe/conservative route and predicted MD to lose at Miami and FSU… and while that may still happen, and is certainly ‘acceptable,’ I am going to get greedy and say I not only want more…. I expect more.

The main reasons I think more is possible, is the team is giving effort on a consistent basis… combine that effort, with what this MD team does well, and there is plenty of reason for optimism.

One game at a time, but I will now be a bit disappointed if MD is not 16-2, 4-0 in league play heading to Duke on the 24th.