Memorial Days Musings For An Abbreviated Orioles Season

Happy Memorial Day!

Our thanks, and respect to those who served; and condolences to those of you who have ever lost a Veteran.

On a day dedicated to remembrance, and on the back-drop of nearly 100,000 American COVID-19 deaths; I get that talking about sports can feel trivial at best.

I’ve had a touch of writer’s block these last few months. Even without live sports dotting the landscape, there was plenty to discuss. We’ve had numerous active discussions at our message board, and I’ve engaged there. Rob Shields and I have had the first handful of episodes of our Sports Tonight podcast, and I’ve enjoyed having that outlet as a respite from larger realities.

But every time I’ve gone to write an actual article, I’ve stopped because either the words escaped me, or I wasn’t yet ready to convey my thoughts.

For some reason, this morning I find myself ready to open up a bit.

It’s beautiful today.
The sun is shining. The sky is blue.

It’s been a long and difficult couple of months.

In addition to this site, Baltimore Sports and Life operates the networking events Baltimore Metro Business Development, and the business development group Pacesetters.

You can find background on BMBD + Pacesetters here.

We typically run three larger BMBD events per year, and our Pacesetters group is comprised of 70+ companies and organizations. My last two months has primarily been spent putting an arm around our Pacesetters partners, and trying to figure out what they are facing in the immediate, and how we can best help them. Some of them are in a good place. Some of them are not. As a whole, our partners have inspired me. They are true leaders in our community, and I feel immense admiration for what they’ve built. I also feel responsibility in doing everything I can for them.

Running a business – and life in-general – is often compared to a race. What you find is that the course is rarely a straight-line. Picture a heart monitor for a representation of the peaks and valleys. Obstacles and detours.

These last few months certainly have provided their share of obstacles and detours.

A sports media company without live sports to cover.
Networking events, and a business development group without the direct ability to meet live.

Ouch.

Ouch is the right adjective for us, because perspective is needed.
Like many others I’ve been dealt a blow to the face; but I’m still standing, where others unfortunately are not.

I could wallow, or I can choose to be thank-full and appreciative of what I do have.
I’m consciously choosing to be appreciative.
If I’m most thank-full of my wife Laura, and my family; next on the list is being thank-full for opportunity.

The opportunity which is represented by each new day, and the chance to make something of it.

Consciously choosing optimism and appreciation or not; I’d be lying to say I haven’t been scared.
BSL is by no-means a finished product, and what has been built has been done so painfully slow.

I spent years in office life working for three large companies.
When I began working BSL full-time, it was an adjustment working from home.
I’ve seen the comments of many who have had to make that change over the last few months, and I can relate. Positives and negatives, but definitely an adjustment.

We struggled mightily for years.
I dealt with crippling depression. I’m someone with a good memory for obscure detail. But the depression and emptiness I felt has left me with a half-decade of memories erased. By the time I turned 37 in August of 2016, all I saw was darkness, and all I felt was pain. I wanted out.

Luckily, a series of events transpired in the months after that low, which effectively provided me a ladder to a healthier place. Since that point we’ve been moving on an upward trajectory. In 2019, it felt like we turned a corner.  For the first time in a long-time, I felt happiness and some inner peace.

What has scared me over the last couple of months, are the thoughts of being dragged back to hell.  I’ve been on-guard for it. And if I ever feel a return of the thoughts I had then, I’ll get help.

But I’m pretty confident I’m never going back to that largely self-created dungeon.
I’m still here, opportunity remains, and I’m running to the light.

 

ESPN’s Jeff Passan outlines in his article here, the hurdles which still need to be overcome for Major League Baseball and the Players Association to find a deal to ensure there is a 2020 season.

With respect to the remaining negotiations; it seems like a safe-bet that there will be an 82 game season beginning in July.

A couple of days ago, our colleague Nick Stevens touched on some things which intrigue him.

Here I give you some of the things I’m musing about in regards for the Orioles, and this abbreviated 2020 season.

(You can discuss this on this BSL Board here.)

This Could Be Fun

I think I speak for most fans, in saying that bad baseball is better than no baseball. Had there not been a pandemic, the 2020 Orioles would have been projected to win 60-65 games. Frankly, many Orioles fans wouldn’t have tuned in much past Opening Day, and most would have tuned out by now.

Besides just missing baseball, the differences of this ’20 season are going to be interesting to watch.

– An 82 game season has an increased chance of variance.
– In the combined American League and National League East Division; the Orioles will be expected to finish last. There won’t be enough variance possible to dream of contention, but it is plausible the Orioles could be better than expected and flirt with a .500 season. That would not happen over 162 games, but is possible in a condensed year.
– We spent all Winter lamenting the rotation, and being optimistic about some of the bullpen arms. With a 30 man roster, the Orioles will be able to further mitigate their primary weakness, and better positioned to capitalize on a possible strength.

The Taxi Squad? 

Along with extended active rosters, it’s been suggested that there will be 20 man Taxi Squads. Without a Minor League season, this makes sense. Each organization will need additional guys working out and prospectively available due to injury, etc. Also beyond being available for Major League promotion, you’ll want your best prospects working out, receiving direct instruction.

It will be interesting to see what the rules are with utilizing the taxi squad. Will all normal rules on options, and team control be in-place? Will there be Major League promotion of guys that wouldn’t have figured to sniff the Majors in ’20 during normal circumstances?

Hypothetical 30 Man Roster?

In a 162 game season season, I think the Orioles would have entered ’20 with a 26 man roster resembling something like:

Catcher (2): Severino, Sisco

Infield (6): Davis, Alberto, Iglesias, Ruiz, Velazquez, Valakia

DH (2): Renato Nunez, DJ Stewart

Outfielders (4): Smith Jr., Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, Mason Williams

Starting pitchers (5): John Means, Alex Cobb, Asher Wojciechowski, Wade LeBlanc, Tommy Milone

Relievers (7): Mychal Givens, Hunter Harvey, Tanner Scott, Richard Bleier, Miguel Castro, Shawn Armstrong, Paul Fry

Without a Minor League season, and with a 30 man roster, I’m thinking:

Catcher (2): Severino, Sisco

Infield (6): Davis, Alberto, Iglesias, Ruiz, Velazquez, Valakia

DH (2): Renato Nunez, DJ Stewart

Outfielders (4): Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, Mason Williams or Diaz

Starting pitchers (5): John Means, Alex Cobb, Asher Wojciechowski, Akin, Kremer

Relievers (11): Mychal Givens, Hunter Harvey, Tanner Scott, Richard Bleier, Miguel Castro, Shawn Armstrong, Paul Fry, Cody Carroll, Dillon Tate, Branden Kline, Wade LeBlanc or Tommy Milone or Lowther

Reasoning / Thoughts: 

– In a normal year, the Orioles would have kept Mountcastle in the Minors until they obtained another year of team control. Now, the Orioles should be more focused with getting him regular ab’s and playing time, and not curbing his development. With Mancini’s colon cancer, Santander and his better arm should slide into RF, and Mountcastle should take over LF.

– I get worrying about team control with Mountcastle and Diaz. I don’t feel the same about Akin and Kremer. Again, in a normal season, would have been fine to send Akin and Kremer to AAA and have them work on their development. With the realities of this season, it feels like the most important thing is to make sure they are facing competition. I know I’d rather see them in the ML rotation vs. LeBlanc or Milone.  Honestly, I feel the same with Lowther vs. Wojciechowski, but I’m expecting Wojciechowski to be part of the rotation.

– Iglesias and Hays should be good defensively up the middle.

– Stewart should find regular ab’s between LF, RF, DH, and 1st. Rotate him daily, give him ab’s. If Davis falters, he can get regular time at 1st.

– I think I like Smith Jr. more than most, but his defenses limitations are limiting. Without the pandemic, would have been fine to give Smith two months of regular ab’s in LF, while Mountcastle was in the Minors earning another year of control. If the Orioles decide to have Mountcastle on the ML roster to start this abbreviated year, Smith isn’t an ideal 4th OF.

– Figure that Diaz, Lowther, Baumann, Zimmermann, and Wells would be parts of the taxi squad, and not far from promotion.

– The bullpen has some quality arms. With 11 relievers, and a limited season; they shouldn’t get worn down even if the rotation is below average.

– The last two years, the rotation has been unfathomably bad.  If the rotation can just be ‘below average’, that would be marked improvement.

– Alberto, Ruiz, and Nunez are looking at another year of regular ab’s and opportunity. We will have firmer grasp on each by season’s end.

Ramifications Of This Year?

– I love baseball. I enjoy the marathon that is a 162 game season. I suspect though, that reducing the total games, would be better for the game as a whole. I think fans are going to like the condensed year, and I wonder if that leads to changes going forward. Not to the extreme of reducing to 82 games going forward, but a reduction from 162.

– Universal DH? Extended rosters? Will these also be long-term changes?

– MLB Expansion could happen in the near-term. If there are two new teams, each existing franchise would get approximate $66M in expansion fees. I’d be excited to see expansion happen, because it would figure to bring us one step closer to the radical realignment I want to see across the game.  Playing this year with the proposed combined AL + NL East, Central, and West divisions also will give us a glimpse of what new divisions could look like.