Miley’s Arrival, Bundy’s Emergence, & Questions For 2017

The recent addition of Wade Miley, and the emergence of Dylan Bundy has significant impact on the Baltimore Orioles here in 2016 and as we look forward to next year.

As you would expect, the trade of Ariel Miranda for the 29 year-old left Miley received a lot of deserved attention at our message board. My take on the deal is that I think it’s an easy trade to like. Miranda isn’t a significant prospect price to surrender to obtain a league average caliber starting pitcher, with existing team control.

(You can discuss this at the BSL Board here.)

Miley’s numbers over the past four years:

2012: 16-11, 3.33 era, 194.2 ip, 193 hits, 37 bb’s, 144 k’s, 14 hr’s, .685 OPS against
2013: 10-10, 3.55 era, 202.2 ip, 201 hits, 66 bb’s, 147 k’s, 21 hr’s, .727 OPS against
2014: 8-12, 4.34 era, 201.1 ip, 207 hits, 75 bb’s, 183 k’s, 23 hr’s, .746 OPS against
2015: 11-11, 4.46 era, 193.2 ip, 201 hits, 64 bb’s, 147 k’s, 17 hr’s, .740 OPS against

Here in ’16, Miley is:
2016: 7-9, 5.08 era, 117 ip, 125 hits, 34 bb’s, 87 k’s, 19 hr’s, .797 OPS against

vs. LHB: .695 OPS, 98 ab’s
vs. RHB: .826 OPS, 352 ab’s

GB%: 46.4%  (48.4% career)
xFIP: 4.30  (3.86 career)
K%: 17.7%  (18.2% career)
BB: 6.9% (7.3% career)
Swinging Strike %: 8.7% (8.6% career)
Avg FB Velocity: 90.4  (91 career)

The numbers I like most? Outside of the fact he’s consistently provided some innings; it’s that Miley is under contract at $8.75M in ’17, with a reasonable club option ($12M, with a $500k buyout) in ’18.

There is nothing exciting about his peripherals. Everything about him shouts mediocre.

Clearly though, mediocre is an improvement vs. what has existed for the O’s rotation overall in ’16. If Miley continues to just be who he has been over his last 52 starts (beginning of ’15), that will help the Orioles.

Bundy’s Emergence:

All Winter and all Spring, my comments on Bundy were that I hoped he would stay healthy, show month-to-month progression, and finish the season with +/- 75 innings.

Based on his lack of innings over the past 3 years (and frankly even in his last full season of 2012); I had zero thoughts of him starting for the O’s in ’16 beyond the possibility of maybe a couple September outings.

A Month ago, I was still pretty skeptical on him starting this year – but was saying I did expect the O’s to jump him to 150 +/- innings in ’17.

After his first start 3 weeks ago, I said:

It’s not reasonable to expect him to be the savior for this rotation.

If he stays in the rotation for the remainder of the year, and generally gives the O’s a chance most times out, that would be a win in my eyes.

He’s already exceeded expectations for this year by joining the rotation….Great for him. Potentially great for the O’s going forward. Probably not ideal for now, but here we are.

If he starts every 5th day the rest of the year, and gives the O’s roughly +/- 5 innings and +/- 85 pitches; he’s going to finish ’16 with 115+/- innings.

Given how bad the rotation has been all year – he doesn’t have to be great to ‘help’. Competitive 5 inning starts would help. It’s reasonable to wonder if he’s currently capable of that though. If he’s not, the O’s aren’t in any worse shape than they’ve been so far on the year… but would remain in position of still needing multiple starters.

Maybe he will exceed expectations once more this year.

A few weeks and a few starts later, Bundy has again surpassed my presumptions and again has us calibrating what is possible.

He’s absolutely looking the part of the lifesaver. Not just a guy that can give the O’s a competitive outing, but a guy that is overwhelming the opposition.

In today’s 10-2 win vs. Chicago; Bundy went 6 innings, allowing 4 hits, 2 er, 1 hr, 1 bb, with 9 k’s over 92 pitches to improve to 5-3.

He’s showing smooth repeatable mechanics. His change-up was superb today, with the identical arm speed just freezing the White Sox. His curve was excellent. Those offerings balanced with his exploding, moving fastball. Like Miley, Bundy works very quick. More than anything else, Bundy’s control has been strong. He’s able to target and attack different quadrants.

Part of me still thinks the sound thing to do with Bundy is get 5 innings or 75 pitches per outing, and call it a day. Give the O’s a chance, stay healthy, stay as fresh as possible, and turn it over to the bullpen. At this point though, I’m just going to enjoy what we are seeing.

Will he tire out? Maybe. His outings will tell the story. Currently he’s just running through opposing hitters, and many innings appear to be zero strain at all.

He’s must watch appointment tv right now for any O’s fan.
With each start he makes, it’s a lot easier to believe in the O’s chances to do damage in October.

Next Year?

1) As evidenced with Bundy, things can change quickly – but it’s currently pretty easy to project the 2017 rotation as Tillman, Gausman, Bundy, Miley, Gallardo.  With Wright, Wilson, Worley, and Jimenez (until they unload him) available in reserve. That is a pretty good position to be in entering the off-season.

2) Even if the rotation did not appear set, the priority in the off-season should be a resolution with Machado. Essentially the O’s will have three options with Machado this Winter. Extend, trade, or do nothing.

From our Q&A with several of our BSL colleagues a few weeks ago:

BSL: If all things were equal, Manny Machado would be one of the first five players anyone would choose to build around. Clearly the 24 year old looks capable of being a future Hall of Famer. As is, he’s a Free Agent after ’18.  Let’s say the O’s offer a 4 year extension (’19-’22) this Winter at $30M annually, with an opt out included, along with deferred money. What do you think the AAV would be for the remaining arbitration years? Do you think that overall contract will work? Do you see Machado wanting a shorter deal? A longer deal?

Rob Shields:  Josh Donaldson signed a 2 year $28.65M extension this off-season.  That extension took up his remaining two arbitration years.  Manny made more this year, his first arbitration year, than Donaldson did in his.  You can argue that Donaldson has been the better player through their first four full years but Manny will still get more money because he’s younger and is still getting better. I would expect his last two arbitration years to be more in the $30-32 million range and however many FA years you can lock up, will average in that $32 million a year range.  I would think he wants a very long, Stanton-esque deal with an opt out after 5 or 6 years or sign a 5 year deal for huge money.  This is a deal that should get done and if we are to believe the recent report via ESPN’s Jim Bowden, as well as everything Machado has said publicly in the past, Manny wants this deal to happen.  

Zach Spedden: The annual value is going to be high regardless. Personally, I’d prefer to see the Orioles take the route the Rays took with Evan Longoria, but it might be to late to pursue something like that with Machado. A deal similar to what Mike Trout signed with the Angels a few years ago (six years, $144m) might be a reasonable starting point.

Reggie Yinger: I think Machado will look to take a Mike Trout deal that is long term (6 years) and be team friendly.

BSL: There are multiple ways to build a team. Baltimore’s payroll this year is $147.7M. If the O’s stay at +/- $150M annually with their payroll for the foreseeable future, what plan do you think is best for the Orioles? Option 1: 20% +/- of annual salary tied up in Machado, locking up the HOF talent during his prime years, or Option 2: Trading him this off-season, getting back 4-5 high-level prospects, with minimal salaries, and long-term team control, and having Machado’s would-be $30M salary available for use elsewhere? Can either plan work?

Shields: Either plan can work. I believe in needing elite talent to win. I would prefer to sign him and trade off guys like Tillman and Britton. Those guys would fetch you good to excellent packages and we can use those young players to build with Manny, Schoop, Gausman, Bundy, et al…

Spedden: The best answer is to build around Machado. He’s one of the best players in the game, and regardless of the return, it’s going to be easier to win a title with him than without him. Others players, mainly Zach Brittion, could be discussed in trades, and the O’s could pick up some farm system help with draft pick compensation.

Yinger: I don’t trade Machado.

If a deal is going to be possible, it should become apparent and you can work towards it. Ideally that is what happens. If he signs an extension with the O’s, the Orioles can then decide where they will place his statue beyond the left-center field bullpens.

If a deal is not going to be possible, it should also become apparent. If the organization decides to trade him, at-least it will come with the knowledge he will bring a tremendous return.

Yes, the potential Hall-of-Fame player you have is better than a group of numerous likely flame outs. However, there are packages which could be attractive. If you obtain a number of high end prospects with years of cheap control, plus use the $30M+ AAV you would be paying Manny to obtain other talent; all is not lost.

When the worst alternative is the O’s doing nothing, and having the MVP talent part of the roster for another year, every outcome can work.

3) Will the O’s make qualifying offers to Wieters, and Trumbo? I think they should.

Trumbo will of course turn down a qualifier, and if the O’s don’t resign him – will easily get a multi-year deal elsewhere. He’s a below average OF, and his offensive numbers are inflated vs. his career averages; but I’d be fine with the O’s getting him signed to a 2-3 year. I think a deal of that length is a better outcome vs. letting him walk and trying to replace his production (even if you think he will take a step back offensively next year). Where I begin to to balk is if it takes a 4th year, and I think there is a good chance it would.

Wieters ultimately took the qualifier last year because his market didn’t develop. MLBTR projected him to get 4 years $64M last year. With hindsight, it’s not overly surprising that didn’t happen given how few games he caught during ’14 and ’15. He already has more innings behind the plate in ’16 than he did the last two years.

Unless he slumps terribly in the last two months, I think someone will offer him multiple years.
As I wrote previously, I won’t be surprised if the O’s do as well.

With a $150M +/- team salary, I can live with the possibility of Wieters again accepting the qualifier. That actually might be my preference. I’d like Wieters back for ’17. I’m not overly excited about giving him multiple years.

If he isn’t back, and the O’s decide to go with Sisco and Joseph (and invest Wieters salary elsewhere) – I’m also fine with that.

The answer on what the O’s should do, is dependent on the variable of what the O’s are willing to do with their payroll going forward.

4) In the off-season we argued for Pedro Alvarez. Three weeks ago, we wrote about his production since June 1st. That roll has only continued, as he now has 15 homers in his last 135 ab’s. He has a .853 OPS overall. His OPS vs. RHP stands at .903. He’s now on-pace for 27 bombs. Nobody will want to sign Alvarez and put him in the field next year, but someone might consider it if they are desperate to add some power. If Trumbo goes elsewhere, resigning Alvarez to DH would be an easy decision. You wouldn’t want to lose both bats this off-season. The primary issues with Alvarez are that he really is a DH only, and the O’s clearly don’t want him batting vs. LHP.  It’s not hard to envision Boston and the Yankees having interest in both Trumbo and Alvarez. Do you prioritize Trumbo over Alvarez because Trumbo can at-least stand in the field, or do you prioritize Alvarez over Trumbo – because a deal with Pedro will probably be cheaper? Are you opposed to a 2 year deal for Alvarez?

5) There isn’t a closer in the game currently any better than Britton. With what we’ve recently seen other elite relievers bring back in trades (and considering the overall weakness of the O’s MiL system); will the O’s consider trading him? Should they when contention in ’17 will remain the goal? (That isn’t to imply that contention would not be possible if Britton was traded.)