We’re closing in on September, which means it’s time for MLB’s stretch run.
While we watch the Baltimore Orioles set a negative – yet, frankly, meaningless – record for home runs allowed, and make the necessary moves to clean house in the scouting department, other more fortunate franchises are preparing for that final sprint toward the postseason, dreaming of champagne showers and ticker-tape parades.
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That’s OK. We know that the O’s are going through a necessary process, remaking the system to return to contention in a more modern and sustainable way. It’s going to take time. Meanwhile, there will still be things to look for in Baltimore in the final month, such as who the O’s will call up when rosters expand – Ryan Mountcastle, anyone?
But there will also be a ton of things going on around the league in the final few weeks of the regular season. That’s what we’re going to do here.
Jockeying For Playoff Position:
First of all, let’s look at the boring race in the NL West, where the Los Angeles Dodgers are cruising toward their seventh straight division title. The Dodgers have run away from the field, and could easily clinch the NL West crown with a couple of weeks to spare.
Where it gets interesting for L.A. is when it comes to homefield advantage in the World Series – that is, if they get there for the third consecutive season. While they’re more than likely to have the best record in the National League, the AL’s New York Yankees and Houston Astros are right there with them.
Speaking of the Yankees and Astros, they’re both in good shape to win their divisions as well, while the Atlanta Braves are looking good in the NL East as well. The best division races are in the two Centrals, where the Twins and Indians are battling in the AL, and the NL is up for grabs between the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers.
The wild card races should be typically nuts, with the Indians, Rays (and even the defending champion Red Sox if they could put a run together) vying for the two spots. The NL could be even wilder, with seven teams all within range, including whichever two of the three contending NL Central teams that don’t win the division. Even the Diamondbacks and Giants, distant roadkill in the NL West, could snag a wild card spot with a nice run in September.
Awards Races:
As exciting as the playoff races will be down the stretch, the award races will hold an equal amount of intrigue.
AL MVP: Mike Trout, the greatest player of his generation, is treating the race the same way the Dodgers are treating the NL West race. In other words, it’s his for the taking. Trout already has set a career mark for homers and will probably also do so in slugging and OPS. He currently leads the AL in homers, walks, on-base, slugging and OPS. We already knew he was great, but he might be having his best season ever, which is pretty remarkable for a guy who has never finished worse than 4th in MVP voting. He’ll grab his 3rd honor this winter.
NL MVP: The NL race is where the drama is at, with the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger and the Brewers’ Christian Yelich apparently intent on fighting it out until the end. Bellinger leads the NL in home runs, total bases and overall WAR (Baseball Reference version), while Yelich leads in on-base, slugging, OPS (of course) and offensive WAR. Make whatever case you want for either of these guys and you won’t be wrong. Maybe they should have them share it this year.
The pitching awards are looking pretty tough.
AL Cy Young: You’ve got a journeyman in Mike Minor of the Rangers leading in WAR, and he’s joined in the top five in ERA by three Astros — Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Wade Miley (yes, THAT Wade Miley) and one EX-Astro in Charlie Morton.. (Seriously, what are the Astros doing with pitchers, and has Mike Elias brought it with him to Baltimore?) And don’t forget about the White Sox’s Lucas Giolito, who has finally broken out in a big way. If handicapping this one, I’d have to give Verlander a slight edge based in his ridiculous WHIP that’s threating to go sub-0.8, but who knows?
NL Cy Young: It’s probably going to come down to some familiar faces like Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, a surprising veteran in Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Braves 21-year-old wonderboy Mike Soroka.
AL Rookie of the Year: It probably comes down between Toronto’s Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe, with Baltimore’s John Means a solid long shot.
NL Rooke of the Year: I’d personally give it to the Mets’ Pete Alonso, thought the aforementioned Soroka would also be a great choice. The Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. will also be in the mix.
Managers of the Year: This award usually goes to someone whose team surprises the masses, so give the edge to Rocco Baldelli in Minnesota and, I guess, Mike Schildt in St. Louis. That’s fine. However, I’d make the case for Aaron Boone of the Yankees (think of all the injuries they’ve had!) and Dave Roberts in Los Angeles. Roberts has won the award just once (2016, when the Dodgers won 91 games). All he does every year is convince selected veterans to take lesser roles, mix in the next wave of young talent, overcome injuries and dominate the NL West. That’s not easy.
Struggling Players Trying To Right The Ship In Time For The Playoffs:
The big one that stands out here is the big man at the back of the Dodgers’ bullpen, Kenley Jansen. After compiling 168 saves with 2.05 ERA over a four-year stretch from 2014-2017, Jansen slid back a bit last season, and he’s dropped even further in 2019, watching his ERA balloon to 3.70 while enduring a fair amount of chatter that he should lose his closer role. Nobody has shouldered more of the burden from the Dodgers’ seven-year run of success than Jansen, who in addition to his 375 innings during that stretch, has tacked on an additional 43.1 POSTSEASON innings. That’s an 11.5 percent increase in workload just based on the postseason. Perhaps it’s catching up to him.
Among other NL players under scrutiny are Bryce Harper, whose massive contract makes the sub-.900 OPS seem somehow less impressive to Phillies fans, and Yu Darvish, who has been a bust since signing with the Cubs in 2018, but who has shown occasional flashes in the second half. Can he find consistency?
In the AL, Jose Ramirez is an interesting case in Cleveland. A legit MVP candidate in 2017-18 (he finished 3rd both times), he’s returned to Earth with a sub-.800 OPS this season, his power going away at the same time most everyone else in the league has been pumping theirs up. There will also be plenty of attention on the Yankees’ pitching staff, with their rotation being their only apparent weakness. Can veterans CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka shake off pedestrian seasons in time for the playoffs? Maybe the Yankees can just slug their way to the title.
Orioles Analyst
Bob Harkins is a veteran journalist who has worked as a writer, editor and producer for numerous outlets, including 13 years at NBCSports.com. He is also the creator of the Razed Sports documentary podcast and the founder of Story Hangar, a network of documentary podcasters.