Hey hello and welcome to MLB Notes, a column with a self-explanatory title! It’s playoff race time, boys and girls, that special time of year before everything is decided when hope springs eternal or at least it does if you’re the Yankees.
Transition!
Yankees!
The Yankees spent the first two thirds of the season floating along in a daze. Their best players weren’t playing well if they were even on the field, and all the depth that experts expected would put them towards 100 wins on the season wasn’t picking up the slack. Fast forward to now and the Yankees have blown past the Red Sox and are hot on the heals of the Rays for the AL East division race thanks to a 12 game winning streak and a 21-4 August. How have they done it?
The Yankees made some big trades at the deadline, bringing in Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo, and they’ve both been great, right? Actually, no. Both have OPSs that start with 0.6 since they’ve arrived in New York so despite the headlines and the big acquisition costs, neither player has to date made much of a dent for the Yankees. No, the wins have come due to improved pitching.
The Yankees also added starter Andrew Heaney from the Angels and he’s been about the pitching equivalent of Gallo with 18 earned runs allowed in 26 innings. The big additions have been Nestor Cortes and Luis Gill. Who and who? Right! Gill has started three games for New York, and in 15.2 innings he’s given up zero runs. Cortes has started five games, and allowed 10 earned runs in 28.2 innings. The Yankees are 6-2 in their combined eight starts.
It doesn’t hurt that Jameson Taillon has been pitching very well recently (last night’s start notwithstanding; the Yankees won anyway, of course), and when you combine that with Gerrit Coles’ continued greatness, that’s a pretty strong, or at least effective rotation.
No team is as good as they look when they win 12 games in a row, and the Yankees are no different. Their offense is still struggling; they’ve scored 100 runs less than Boston on the season and 120 runs fewer than Tampa, and outside of Aaron Judge you could say no hitter has the season hoped for. But you don’t need to score runs when Gill is pitching (apparently) as “run” will do just fine.
Also, presumably Gallo and Rizzo will start hitting soon enough, or more than they have been to date, and that should offset some of the coming regression from the starting staff. The Yankees still have the third worst run differential in their division so it’s not clear how good they really are, but with lots of games left against the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Rangers, and Angels, they might just keep winning anyway.
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Award Season!
The race for the AL MVP is real and it is spectacular. For a while it seemed as if Vlad Guerrero Jr of the Blue Jays would run away with it, and he’s been quite good despite a down August that has seen his power disappear. Still though, if you go by WAR he’s not even the best player on his own team, and if you go by Baseball Reference’s version he’s not even the second best player either.
The player with the most WAR of any and all varieties is Shohei Ohtani as he’s been simultaneously one of the best pitchers in the AL and one of the best hitters. But he’s not the best at either, at least not so far. There are arguments to be made for Ohtani, and he’d probably get my vote if I had one, but there are arguments to be made for Marcus Semien of the Jays who has posted a fantastic bounce-back season with 30 homers and a wRC+ of 129 while playing everyday at second base, as well.
Beyond Guerrero, Ohtani, and Semien, Cedric Mullins stands out. Mullins isn’t at the top of either FanGraphs or B-R’s leader boards but maybe he should be closer than he is? He is fourth in FanGraphs offensive stat (“Off”) and fifth in wRC+ in the AL, all while playing an at times spectacular center field. The fact that he’s doing it on a last place team is, to my mind, that much more impressive, as he doesn’t have the trappings of a pennant race to drive him forward. Also, for some reason, his defense grades out badly by both metrics, which hurts his WAR totals. I don’t see him beating out Ohtani, and he probably shouldn’t considering what Ohtani is doing, but Mullins is having one of the all-time Orioles seasons and it might get drowned in another disappointing year in Baltimore.
In the NL, well, it’s Fernando Tatis, Jr. for MVP if he can just stay on the field to finish up the season. The 22 year old leads the NL with a wRC+ of 163, a 1.010 OPS (the only one over 1.000 in the NL) and has 35 homers which also leads the senior circuit. He’s also played shortstop most of the year. Other contenders for the NL MVP are Bryce Harper and his .412 on-base percentage, and Max Muncy who does everything well for the Dodgers. But it’s Tatis’ to lose at this point.
Chris Sale is back
The Red Sox have fallen apart in August, but one positive for Boston is the return of Chris Sale. Sale is 3-0 having beaten Baltimore, Texas, and last night he took down an underperforming Twins club as well. In the third inning, Sale threw nine straight strikes for three straight strikeouts, all combined for his third ever immaculate inning. He finished with eight strikeouts in 5.1 innings. Who knows if he’ll stay healthy, but right now he looks like a difference maker for the Red Sox.
Boston’s struggles have been across the board this month, but one of those issues has been a leaky starting rotation. Sale’s return not just to the rotation but to form as one of the best pitchers in baseball would do a lot to change that. If nothing else, it would be something for other teams to worry about should Boston hold on to the second Wild Card spot in the American League.
Toronto is in trouble
The Blue Jays went in hard at the deadline, acquiring starting pitcher Jose Berrios and relievers Brad Hand, Adam Cimber, and Joakim Soria to bolster a beleaguered bullpen. It hasn’t worked. The Jays have gone 13-13 in August and have dropped from eight games out to 12.5 in the division. Their playoff hopes are in the single digits according to FanGraphs, as they aren’t only 5.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot, but they’d have to jump over both Seattle, Oakland, and one of Boston or the Yankees to reach it.
It wasn’t wholly for nothing as they will still have Berrios for next season as well, but barring a miraculous run it’s going to be one of the more disappointing seasons the Blue Jays have had in a while.
Orioles Analyst
Matthew Kory is a Orioles / MLB Analyst for BSL. He has covered baseball professionally for The Athletic, Vice Sports, Sports On Earth, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. He lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife, two boys, and his cats, Mini Squeaks and The President. Co-Host of The Warehouse.