MLB Notes: The Best and Worst of Free Agency

The weirdest part of this off-season isn’t the lockout. That’s certainly abnormal, but it’s not outright strange. In fact, I think we all saw it coming years ago. No, the weirdest thing is how almost all of the big signings have come from bad teams. 

It’s almost true across the board. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray all went to the Rangers who finished 60-102 and in last place in the AL West. Kevin Gausman went to Toronto who, though I wouldn’t call them a bad team, did finish out of the playoffs. Robbie Ray went to Seattle who won 90 games last season, but did it with the run differential (-51) of a 76-86 team. Max Scherzer and Starling Marte went to the Mets! The Mets! The Mr. Met Is Giving You The Finger Mets! Marcus Stroman signed with the Cubs who are, let’s be honest, bad. Javier Baez went to the Tigers who are, let’s be honest, worse. So did Eduardo Rodriguez, for that matter. Of MLB Trade Rumors’ top 20 free agents, the only one to sign with a 2021 playoff team is Chris Taylor who re-signed with the Dodgers. 

To me, right now in the midst of this off-season stoppage, that’s the story of the 2021 off-season so far. It’s a shrinking of the gap between good teams and the bad teams. It’s really good news for fans of parity and for fans who noticed that a third of MLB teams haven’t actually been trying to win. 

That’s not to say there won’t be any more bad teams. *coughs nervously* There clearly will be because there are every year. Someone has to lose the games to the teams that win them. But the bad teams are getting better, and that’s notable. So with that, let’s go through the top three teams to help themselves and the top three teams who got worse over the 2021-22 off-season… so far!

Got Better

3. Tigers 

The Tigers had a winning record over the second half of the 2021 season. I bet you didn’t know that! I sure didn’t. Before the All Star break they gave up five runs a game. After, they gave up 4.2. That number should get even better with the additions of free agent starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez (formerly of the Red Sox), and shortstop Javier Baez (ex-Met and Cub). Rodriguez came over on an eminently affordable five year, $77 million deal and he immediately makes the top of the Tigers rotation better. This, to be clear, is help the Tigers wanted but maybe didn’t need, what with talented youngsters Tarik Skull, Matt Manning, and Casey Mize all set to start the season. With Rodriguez, they’ve assembled one of the most talented rotations in the division. Adding Baez’s defense (and pop) will only help that cause, and neither player will block anyone in the Tigers’ system because starting pitchers never block anyone and somehow the Tigers don’t have any shortstop prospects in their minor league system. 

2. Mets

The Mets decided to stop playing games and get real. Max Scherzer won’t sign with them? Really? How about $40 million a season? That’s what I thought. Add outfielders Starling Marte and Mark Canha, along with infielder Eduardo Escobar because you can and now you have a pretty big jumpstart to the roster. There are questions, of course. None of the additions is anything close to what you’d call young, for one, but hey, it’s only money, and to new Mets owner Steve Cohen, it’s barely even that. How much is $200 million when you have $11 billion. So the Mets are better (if older) (and significantly more expensive) but if they don’t care I don’t see why we should.

1. Rangers 

There are two things about the Rangers off-season. One, they are undeniably far better now than they were when the season ended. Adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien instantly takes their middle infield from one of the worst in baseball to one of the best. Adding Jon Gray at four years, $56 million is… something you could do. For all the quibbling there, Gray is better than just about anyone the Rangers have anywhere close to the major league rotation, but that brings us to the second thing about the Rangers off-season. While they have improved more than any other team, they had more improving to do than just about any other team. Put differently: they’re still terrible. They have a few prospects who could come up and make an impact in 2022 but beyond that there really isn’t anything else. They’ve added I’d argue two but you could say three good players to a roster utterly devoid of good players. The three new guys are their best players and not by a little bit. So the Rangers will be better, but they’re still going to be pretty bad. And if they’re able to put a team around Semien and Gray and Seager it’ll likely be well after those three have hit and passed their peaks. But they’re better!

Got Worse

3. Red Sox 

The Red Sox make the bad list because they lost Eduardo Rodriguez and attempted to replace him with equal parts Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, and James Paxton. If you could pick the pieces of those pitchers up (which you will have to do during the 2022 season) and staple them together you might get one pitcher as good as Rodriguez out of it. Maybe. But that’s not all. The Red Sox also traded away Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr., the worst hitting non-pitcher in baseball last season. Yes, they got prospects in the deal as well, but those guys aren’t helping in 2022 and probably not in 2023 either. What’s more, adding Bradley and the fact that JD Martinez opted in to the last season of his five year deal probably means Kyle Schwarber is going elsewhere as well. All that said, there is clearly more the Red Sox plan to do here, so perhaps we’ve just caught them at an odd time, like the guy who gets the newspaper in his underwear every morning. 

2. Dodgers 

The Dodgers still have a good farm system and a ton of good young talent, so keep that in mind. You don’t need to feel sorry for them. Still though, they lost starting shortstop Corey Seager to Texas and ace starter Max Scherzer to the Mets (the Mets!). And they still haven’t re-signed star starter Clayton Kershaw or star reliever Kenley Jansen, both of whom are free to sign elsewhere and may actually do that if/when the lockout ends. The Dodgers may still bring them back, but they haven’t yet, so I can’t credit them with doing so until they, you know, do so. The Dodgers will be fine either way because they’re the Dodgers and they’re always fine either way, but recall that LA didn’t actually win their division last season, they had a ton of injuries which tend to presage more injuries, and their farm system is starting to thin out a bit. They’re still probably NL favorites going into next season, but what you’re seeing is a few cracks starting to show. 

1. Blue Jays

Not a great off-season for those from the Great White North. The Blue Jays brilliantly bought low on Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray before last season, signing them both to prove-it one year contracts. Both proved the heck out of it, and then left for greener pastures. Perhaps the Jays should’ve tried a bit harder to get a team option on those contracts, eh? Anyway, those two guys combined for about 11 wins (according to FanGraphs) last season, and each of those wins just waltzed out the door. Yes, the Jays have replaced Ray with Kevin Gausman, and yes Gausman was fantastic for the Giants last season. There are questions about Gausman though (as there are about Ray, to be fair). That the Jays gave him a five year contract despite the fact that he’s a two pitch pitcher (two very good pitches, but still, less margin for error there) coming off a career year, going into his age-31 season, and with few good seasons on his resume, is certainly questionable. And now they have to find a Semien replacement as well, despite the fact that seven win second baseman don’t grow on trees and even if they did those trees wouldn’t grow in a Toronto winter.

All of this is of course done and said and commented upon and analyzed with the knowledge that there is much of the off-season left to go. When things pick back up though, the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays all have some work to do because the Tigers, Mets, and Rangers are coming for them.