MLS 2020 – Lets Roll!

First things first. Notice anything different on the MLS logo for 2020? Yeah you can’t miss it. Big ole 25 to commemorate the 25th season of the MLS. Unlike its predecessors, MLS is here to stay. Lets take a look back to see just how far they have come in those 25 years.

The first season kicked off with 10 teams and had an average attendance that year at just over 17,000 fans per match. After that season, though, attendance fell off by 3,000 fans/match for a number of years. The league expanded to 12 teams in 1998 but fell back to 10 teams following the 2001 season. Smartly they realized that while their plan for slow and steady growth was a solid one, that they had a major hole in their thinking. Most teams played in multi sport stadiums that seated way more fans that they were capable of putting in the stands. How fun is it to be one of 15,000 people sitting in a massive NFL stadium designed to hold 60,000 or even more? So they began an approach to move to smaller soccer specific stadiums. Did it work? In spades. The 2019 season saw the league play a full slate of matches for 24 teams and the average attendance was over 21,000/match. More than a 50% increase since 2000 and triple the total attendance from the 2002 season. A handful of teams, such as Atalanta and Seattle, still play in big stadiums. Hard to blame them when those two sides average 52,000 and 40,000/match, respectively! So as with most things a one size fits all isn’t always the answer. But in general, soccer fans seem to have embraced the smaller more intimate venues. Perhaps down the road we’ll see attendance grow to the point where 50,000 seat stadiums are needed. I hope to see that day!

So the leagues approach to slow and steady seems to have been the right formula and it continues heading into this season with two new teams staring play. Inter Miami FC and Nashville FC start play this weekend. Will be interesting to see if Nashville has a similar fan support as the Nashville Predators of the NHL. Don’t think anybody expected Nashville to be so hockey crazy.

So onto 2020 and what to expect. Like every sport, preseason prognosis is by and large a crapshoot. Rosters have turned over, coaching staffs have changed, and injuries always are a major factor. With that in mind lets break down each conference and put the teams into three pots. The class clubs, the contenders, and the also rans. And for the record don’t take this synopsis down to your local sports book and bet your life savings! The playoff format will be the same as for 2019. Seven teams from each conference make the playoffs with the highest seeded team getting a first round bye. The other 6 teams in each conference play a single elimination match at the higher seeds home. Subsequent rounds are also single elimination  hosted by the higher seed. So clearly there is a big incentive to win your division or at least to finish in the top 4 to get that first match at home.

Eastern Conference

The Class Clubs: While there is always debates in these types of discussions there isn’t much question that Atlanta, NYCFC, Philadelphia, and Toronto are the flag bearers in this conference. Expect all four of these teams to make the playoffs with Atlanta and NYCFC most likely to finish in the coveted top spot.

Atlanta has lost both Darlington Ngabe and Julian Gressel. Neither player was flashy or scored goals. But they ran much of the engine and were key to the clubs success. But they still have Josef Martinez who scores almost at will. And playing in front of an average of over 50,000 home fans keeps them motivated.

NYCFC returns most all of its roster from last season where they finished 2nd in the conference. Expect them to have a similar stature this season. Led by Brazilian forward Heber, who scored 15 times in his 22 matches, and tireless midfielder Alexander Ring, they will be a tough team again this season.

The Philadelphia Union had a strong 2019 campaign and expect more of the same. Las season their prognosis was mixed. They appeared to have the talent but there were lots of questions as to whether their youth would really play to expected levels or if they still were a year away from being a solid contending team. Well their youngsters played very well. They have done an excellent job of pushing players through the academy system and getting them lots of playing time once they make the big club. They may not have the name recognition of some teams but they are truly two deep at every position and over a long season that typically pays big dividends. The key for the Union will be if striker Kacper Przybyiko continues his scoring pace from last year?

Toronto FC are just a consistent club. They have finished 1st or 2nd in the league in 3 of the last 4 seasons. What sports fan wouldn’t take that! There are two keys to this side. In the locker room its clearly the veteran leadership of Michael Bradley. Out until at least May after ankle surgery they will miss him on the field. But he will still be there to provide the leadership off the field. On the field there is no question that its Jozy Altidore. He is clearly one of the most complete forwards in the MLS. When he is healthy he can score, provide hold up play, and create chances for other front runners. But the key word here is healthy. While he enters the season supposedly fully fit he seems to be just a step away from an injury. Toronto will go as far as he can stay on the field.

The Contenders:

This is an interesting group of teams. Columbus Crew, Inter MIlan FC, New England Revolution, and the New York Red Bulls seemed to fit the bill of teams that, on paper, have the talent to make a run at the playoffs. Yet they all also have a potential glaring weakness or two.

The Columbus Crew may be one of the big surprises this season. Opponents will be well served to not look past the Crew. Experts have them picked anywhere from winning the conference to just missing out on the playoffs. Their supporters point out that they played some of the best soccer in MLS last season and missed the playoffs mostly due to key injuries to their back line. The detractors say they still lack depth in midfield even after bringing in Ngabe. But the biggest addition to the club has been the signing of Lucas Zelarayan. The playmaker from Argentina should have plenty of room to roam and that is likely to enable striker Gyasi Zardes to have another great season. If Zardes could score 13 times without a top playmaker his game may take it up a notch this season.

Inter Milan FC are a tough club to handicap. They have a lot going for them but they are also an expansion team and that just makes things tough. The good news is that the club ownership, which includes former English star David Beckham, has brought in a top notch management team. Their Sporting Director is Paul McDonough who set the framework for Atlanta FCs incredible start. And he is following a similar script in Miami. Then they hired an experienced head coach in Diego Alonso who has won 2 CONCACAF Champions League titles. On the field they are going to be lead by Rodolfo Pizzaro, one of if not the best field player from last seasons Liga MX. On the wing the have a young 19 year old Matias Pelligrini. Most have probably never heard of him but as Miami’s first ever Designated Player pay attention to this kid. If he blossoms into the goal scorer he is expected to be they will be a strong team.

The Revs had a tail of two seasons last year. After a less than stellar first half they fired their coach and brought in former USMNT head Bruce Arena. And Arena had them playing much better the second half to the point that they made the playoffs. While they were eliminated in the first round by Atlanta, things are looking promising for 2020. They have two star players in Carles Gil (MLS Newcomer of the Year) and Gustavo Bou (who like Arena joined halfway through the season and tallied 9 goals in 14 matches). Expect the Revs to find their way into the playoffs this year and they could surprise many and finish in the top 4.

New York Red Bulls, that other NY team. I am sure they hate getting referred to that way but until they knock off NYCFC that’s the way it is. Kind of like the Yankees/Mets discussion. The story for them the past offseason was more one of who left compared to who they got. Losing veteran keeper Luis Robles and left back Kenmar Lawrence will leave some big holes in the back. USMNT defender Aaron Long will need to step it up a notch and they will rely on withdrawn forward Kaku to carry the attack. They could easily find their way back into the playoffs but they could falter too.

The Also Rans:

Chicago Fire, FC Cincinnatti, DC United, Montreal Impact, and Orlando City are all likely to fall below the playoff cut line but for different reasons.

The Fire completely cleaned house this winter. New owner, manager, sporting director, and technical director. And they are moving back to Soldier Field. They also have a lot of new faces on the field but none may be more important then Luka Stojanavic, the attacking midfielder. He brings a lot of European attacking experience and how well he can run the middle of the field will be key to the Fire scoring goals. So expect to see some new vision on the field and by ownership but it will probably take a year or two for it to all come together.

Similarly, FC Cincinnatti has the same fate as the Fire. They just aren’t ready for prime time. The good news is they have nowhere to go but up after finishing with the MLS worst record. But the expansion club still drew over 27,000/game good for third in the league. Cincy fans just need to be patient with the young club.  Then the club suffered another setback when their head coach resigned on February 14th. He is under investigation from the MLS Players Association for “extremely inappropriate comments” so he left. Less than two weeks before the start of the season is a tough pill to swallow. Still its not all bad news. They have one of the best two way midfielders in the league in Allan Cruz and they have their new stadium coming on line next season. But don’t expect them to make much noise this year. Most fans would be happy if they trend up this year.

Meanwhile DC United is in a rebuilding mode having lost a massive star in Wayne Rooney to retirement and winger Paul Arriola to a significant knee injury in the preseason. It remains to be seen how long Arriola is out but the USMNT winger will miss a good stretch and his speed and work rate will be very hard to replace. They do have a new addition that could be a real difference maker. Peruvian midfielder/winger Edison Flores could turn some heads. If he meshes well with striker Ola Kamara and outside back/winger Julian Gressel they may find a way to finish in the playoffs.

Unlike the other eastern Canadian side, the Montreal Impact are pretty much a mess. While they have some attacking strength their defense is not so hot. After allowing 60 goals last season, “good” for next to last in the conference, they didn’t appear to do much this winter to address that. They did however bring in a new head coach. A name that even the most casual fan has heard of in all time French favorite, Thierry Henry. Maybe he can gin up some French magic and pass it on to his new club?

And lastly we have Orlando City. While they didn’t make the playoffs last year, or any of their first 5 years in the league, they do have several things going for them. First they play in very nice soccer venue in Exploria Stadium and their fans love them. To the tune of almost 23,000/match and a 89% attendance compared to capacity. I spent two different weekends there toward the end of last season and there were signs of that club everywhere. Billboards, bumper stickers, fans with gear. They love their team. Second, they brought in a new coach, Oscar Pareja. The guy who most feel was responsible for building the great program in Dallas. Can he do it again? Sooner or later they will make the playoffs. Soon, but don’t think its this year.

Western Conference

The Class Clubs:

This conference has a number of really good teams that could win it all. But three teams are the class here.  Last years champions, the Seattle Sounders, sandwiched by the two LA clubs, LAFC and the Galaxy.

LAFC were the best team in the MLS last season and most every fan acknowledged that. But like in all sports, being the best and winning the title doesn’t always work out. In this case the favored home team lost in the Conference Final to the Sounders. It wasn’t losing that was such a shock but the manner in which they did so. They struck gold in the 17th minute and looked to be headed to the finals. But their wheels fell off and in the next 10 minutes they were down 2-1 and ended up losing 3-1. Not the finish to the season they or their fans were looking for. So they have plenty to play for this season. And leading the way will be the best player in MLS in Carlos Vela. Vela had a record setting season finding the net 34 times. But what made it even more amazing was he added 15 assist. Fans may never see a season like that again….or maybe they’ll see a repeat performance this year! He’s that good.

Crazy to think that a single city can have two of the best teams in a sport but Los Angeles surely does with the LA Galaxy. The biggest news for them this offseason is the loss of their superstar Swedish striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic who has moved back to the Italian Serie A. But Galaxy fans are excited as they should be. The club went after the player many have wanted to see in the MLS for a long time and this is Mexican NT forward Javier Hernandez. Chicharito will be at home in front of many Hispanic fans and will score and probably often. With an attacking 5 of him, Cristian Pavon, Aleksandar Katai, Jonahtan Dos Santos, and Sebastian Lleget this team will probably score 70 goals and may well hit that magic mark of over 80. The flip side is that they also allow goals. In bunches having been one of only two teams to make the playoffs last year with a negative goal differential. They don’t look improved much in the back. But they are so strong up front it may not matter.

Then we have the Sounders. Seattle fans love their team as they should. Historically one of the strongest programs year in and year out and this season looks no different. Coming off their championship run they look strong enough to make a deep palyoff run as well as far into CONCACAF Champions League. Their weakness lies in the back four. Steady players but they no longer have a top flight defender with Roman Torres moving on to Miami. But they have a great trio with Jordan Morris, Nico Lodeiro, and Raul Ruidiaz. And one of the best big game keepers in the league in Stefan Frei. Frei is still credited with making the biggest save in MLS history and its worth watching again and again. Just mind boggling.

The Contenders: 

The middle group here includes Dallas FC, Minnesota United FC, Portland, and Sporting Kansas City. Us fans have to love the approach being taken in Dallas. With one of if not the best academy programs in the country Dallas is building from within and its working. The biggest problem for them is keeping their budding stars. Two well known players that have come out of that program and been picked up by European clubs are Weston McKennie and Reggie Cannon. Both currently maintstays on the USMNT. Dallas has a crop of academy players on the team that will be fixtures on the field this season including midfielder Paxton Pomykal and forward Jesus Ferreira (both could feature prominently at this summers Olympics ….assuming they have them?).  The back is cemented by keeper Jesse Gonzalez. If he has a big season he will not only help Dallas into the playoffs but may move up in the ranks of keeping for the USMNT.

Minnesota is coming off its best ever season and Loon fans are looking for more. The Loons are bringing back all 6 of their defending starters and they are still in their prime. However losing keeper Vito Mannone will be tough. Voted the Goalkeeper of the Year last season he and the club weren’t able to reach contract numbers and he departed for Denmark. Still strong but their defense may suffer a bit. But the biggest loss is of their best attacking player Darwin Quintero. The club only scored 11 times in their final 11 matches (all competitions) and that is a tough proposition come playoff time. Peruvian league leading goal scored Luis Amarilla has joined the team and they are going to need him scoring goals if they are to make the playoffs.

The Portland Timbers had an odd season. Starting with a heavy laden away match while upgrades were completed on the home field. The prognosis was that if the Timbers could just stay in the mix the first half the season that they would be in position for a real run the second half with the heavy home match schedule. The finished up the season going 5-3-7 over their last 15 matches. Not good enough. Much of the problem seemed to be in the approach laid out by coach Gio Savarese. By late season they had earned the nickname “Cross a Lot FC.”  Perhaps not the best tactic when your two best goal scorers were both under 6ft tall? But he’s a very good coach so look for the Timbers to look more like the 2018 team than last years one.

Similarly to Portland, Sporting Kansas City did not have a season their fans have come to expect. They missed to playoffs for the first time in 9 years and their biggest issue was scoring goals. They had a strong midfield led by Felipe Gutierrez and Roger Espinosa. The team created plenty of opportunities in the attack but they didn’t find a way to finish. They hope to have addressed that with the signing of last years Liga MX goal scoring leader Alan Pulido. They have high expectations for him and he shouldn’t disappoint. However, one this you’ll see a lot less of this year is Sporting’s high press defense. While they still boast a cadre of really good defenders they just are past the point where they can play that style of defense. Graham Zusi and Matt Besler are both on the wrong side of 30 for that game. They will still be good defensively but look for them to stay back more than in the past.

The Also Rans: 

So that leaves us with Colorado, Houston, Nashville, Salt Lake, San Jose and Vancouver. And we might as well get to the bottom line. While all these teams have some things going for them and perhaps bright futures, I don’t think 2020 is the year for any of these teams to make the plalyoffs let alone any kind of a run. That doesn’t mean they aren’t worth watching as they do have some good things happening.

Out in Denver, Rapids fans have been pining to get back into the playoffs and that is clearly the bar set by coach Robin Fraser. Having taken over the charge in August he instilled a totally different system and it was one that was very fun to watch. This year the players will have the preseason and the entire season to develop that system. If they continue to grow into the fast paced breakout style then they could be dangerous down the road. But for now they must find a way to score from the run of play. Last year they had more set piece goals, 17, than any team in the league. That is probably not sustainable. So this offseason they targeted and got Danish playmaker Younes Namil. If he builds an understanding with forward Kei Kamara they could have themselves a winner. Although he is getting up there at 35,  Kamara could move into 2nd place on the MLS all time goal scoring list.

Down south, playing in BBVA Stadium are the Houston Dynamo. Their fans have a great reason to watch this year. They have a new coach in a former stud USMNT player, Tab Ramos. Ramos was brought in after a long tenure coaching the U-20 team. They were fun to watch and dang good. Les see what Tab can bring to Houston. The biggest thing he’ll need to do is to get some consistency from the attack. When they are on Mauro Manotas and Alberth Elis can score with anybody. But they also have long dry stretches. Newcomer, ex-Loon Quintero should help overcome this. The other problem Ramos will have to deal with is in the midfield. They have a solid defensive mid in Matias Vera but the rest of their mids tend to play forward. And they don’t have the backline to deal with too much pressure. Tab will have to develop a structure to keep their defensive shape while still utilizing his best players which just tend to be weaker defensively.

Back in 1998, the NHL awarded a franchise to Nashville. Many stalwart hockey fans were wondering just what the heck the league was doing. Well they knew full well what they were doing. The Predators have consistently averaged over 17,000/game since that time. MLS is hoping to have similar success with the new soccer club. Things are just always tough with expansion teams in most any sport and soccer is no exception. But they are taking a smart approach and building their team with defense and proven MLS experience. In this case, they are building their defense around UWMNT center back Walker Zimmerman and their midfield around Dax McCarty and Anibal Godoy. The team probably won’t set any scoring records but neither should they allow a ton of goals from the opposition.

Real Salt Lake are losing one of the best reasons to watch in goalkeeper Nick Romando. Its hard to remember watching Real without Romando minding the nets. The team tends to play a conservative style geared to protecting their own end and probing into the attacking third when the space is there. When you don’t have the star power of some of the other teams its not a bad way to go. But they are going to need to see one of their young attackers really come on this year. They really need Albert Rusnak or Corey Baird to become a serious goal scorer.

Out west things are shaking one last time as San Jose Earthquakes ageless goal scorer Chris Wondolowski is back for one last season. And why not? The guy scored 15 times last year, most on the club. Last year, their first under coach Matias Almeyda, fans were shown a fast attacking style switching to tight man marking when playing defense. Having a full season in that style and getting accustomed to it will play benefits down the road. If they can get more consistency they could even make a playoff run this summer. For me, the key to this team is going to be center mid Jackson Yueill. The young kid really came on and has also started drawing notice playing with the USMNT. He’s tenacious and can thread needles with his passing. If he continues to grow and Wondo has one last year in his legs it could be fun down in San Jose.

Did we save the best for last? Unfortunately for Vancouver fans the answer is no. The Whitecaps were the second worst team in the league last season. They are making changes for the future but the are not there yet. They did sign Lucas Cavallini this winter and he will start then down the road to success. The Canadian striker will score goals for them as he proved he could do in Liga MX. But he needs more help than he has available. The other good news for Cap fans is at the other end of the field. When you don’t have a very good team hope like hell you have a great keeper. Maxime Crepeau will come up big enough times to keep them in games. In the end it won’t be enough to get them to the playoffs but you have to start someplace.The future looks brighter but Caps fans are probably going to have to wait at least another year to see playoff time.

So there it is. Season 25 for the MLS starts this Saturday and league play will run till decision Sunday on October 4th. Sit back and watch some great soccer. Going to be a fun summer!