MLS 2021 – What’s New and What’s Not

The 26th season for the Major Soccer League kicks off this Friday with two matches, with Houston hosting San Jose and Seattle hosting Minnesota. Before we dive into a look at each club lets take a look at some things league wise that are different from years past.

What’s New

First, of course, is the start of the expansion club Austin FC. There new stadium (rendering above) is slated to open on June 19th. This will be the 3rd club in the soccer rich state of Texas. They have the typical ownership group but with one twist. Matthew McConaughey, is a part owner and with an unusual job title, Minister of Culture (M.O.C.). The Texas native also serves as the creative director for Wild Turkey and has his own bourbon (Longbranch). Now just what does a MOC do? Well according to McConaughey, its to align the culture of the city of Austin and the product on the pitch. “We like to win, we like to win well and know how to wear our wins well. We’re a growing city. As minister of culture, I’m hanging onto the DNA of who we are and why we love Austin is still in place in the city and within Austin FC.” Ok there you have it….

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Secondly, is a big change in the schedule. Typically MLS starts in late February or early March but due to the ongoing pandemic (can this freaking thing just go away already?) the season is starting late and finishing late with Decision Sunday not until November 7th. The playoffs will begin on November 19th with the MLS Cup Final on December 11th. There will be a league-wide shutdown the first couple of weeks in June to free up players for the CONCACAF Nations League. The league is also likely to have some key players missing during parts of the season as CONCACAF Gold Cup is in July and August and qualifying for WC 2022 has match days set for September, October, and November. Needless to say some players are going to see lots of minutes on the pitch this summer.

The CONCACAF Champions League is also going on (matches have already started). Four MLS sides are involved in that league as follows:

Columbus Crew – 2020 MLS Cup Champions

Philadelphia Union – 2020 MLS Supporters’ Shield Champions

Portland Timbers – 2020 MLS is Back Tournament Champions

Atlanta FC = 2019 US Open Cup Champions

Fellow BSL Analyst, Ian Quillen had an excellent look at why MLS sides could finally have success in CONCACAF Champions League this year. Worth a read!

Lastly, several well known stars were missing last season due to injuries and/or pandemic concerns. The two biggest names back on the field will be Carlos Vela and Josef Martinez. Vela missed most of the season and finished with a paltry 4 goals. But him back healthy and combined with league scoring leader Diego Rossi will again make LAFC a scoring machine. Martinez went down in Atlanta’s first match and missed the rest of the season. He was the MVP in 2018 and scored 27 times in 2019. His return instantly boosts Atlanta’s stock.

What’s Not

Unfortunately, the biggest thing “not new” is the ongoing pandemic. Attendance will be limited (details in each team’s preview) and in some cases severely. Even bigger is the impact on the 3 Canadian clubs. For the first two months of the season Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver will all play their matches behind closed doors. With Montreal playing in DRV PNK Stadium near Miami, Toronto playing in Exploria Stadium in Orlando, and Vancouver playing in Rio Tinto Stadium in Salt Lake City. Its unknown at this point if Canadian travel restrictions will open up by June or not.

The good “not new” thing is that MLS fans will continue to have lots of viewing opportunities. Fox Sports will continue to show matches and almost all MLS matches can be streamed on ESPN+.

Enough backdrop, on to a look at each club and their projections for MLS 2021.

Eastern Conference

Atlanta United – Things pretty much can only go up after 2020 in which they failed to make the playoffs when 10 teams did in each conference. But Martinez is back, they have a new coach in Gabriel Heinze, and 22 year old attacking midfielder Ezequiel Barco will be trying to impress European clubs enough to warrant a transfer.

Attendance – Capped at about 50% for the start of the season or about 22,000 fans. Second most in the league.

Top Question – How well has Josef Martinez recovered?

Projection – Clearly a much better side than shown last season. While other teams have improved more over the last couple of seasons, they are still a strong side. They should be back into the playoffs with a shot at a first round bye.

Chicago Fire – Everything about the Fire was new in 2020. Literally everything. New logo, new stadium, new coaching staff, and half of a new roster. All those changes still fell short of the playoffs. But just by a single point. So the club management has chosen a path for 2021. A path of stability. Give all those changes from a year ago another season to come together. Biggest help will be the return of forward Luka Stojanovic who only played 60 minutes last year before a season ending knee injury.

Attendance – Capped at 25% or about 15,500 fans.

Top Question – Will midfield duo of Gaston Gimenez and Alvaro Medran continue to improve and combine well with Stojanovic?

Projection – Toss up to make the playoffs. They are quite young and they may need another year of growth.

FC Cincinnati – Heading into their third season they literally have nowhere to go but up after finishing last in their first two seasons. They are opening up their new stadium and were one of the more active teams this offseason. They have spent to bring in some high paid attacking players in Brenner and Lucho Acosta. Manager Jaap Stam will have a full season to mold this team to play they way he desires. They certainly have support of their fans.

Attendance – TBD

Top Question – Will the signing of Brenner pay off?

Projection – Don’t expect them to make the playoffs this season. But expect them to show some good growth.

Columbus Crew – The Crew are riding high coming off their MLS Cup win last season. And they may even be better this year! Take a fun attacking side with Lucas Zelarayan and Gyasi Zardes (second in MLS scoring last season) and then add in Bradley Wright-Phillips (one of the all time goal scoring leaders in MLS history) and you have a dynamic team. Then they added midfielders Perry Kitchen ato pair with Darlington Ngabe. They indeed did get better.

Attendance – Capped at 30% or about 6,000 fans.

Top Question – They have a really tough early season schedule. They have the talent and depth but can they survive this tough road. But the big one is will Harrison Afful continue to play at a high level or will age catch up to him?

Projection – Top playoff team and a shot to repeat.

D.C. United – New manager, Herman Losada is know for teams that produce goals. On the order of 20% of the matches he has coached in his career have had combined goals of over 5. What’s not to like about that! Plus he’ll be the youngest manager in the league.

Attendance – Capped at 25% or about 5,000 fans.

Top Question – Can Losada get his players playing at with the level of enthusiasm that he manages with especially the DC homegrown players. To be successful their homegrown players will have to be major contributors.

Projection – Fighting to make the playoffs down to the last week.

Inter Miami – Owner David Beckham has his manager in newly hired Phil Neville. Their attack is built around Gonzalo Higuain and Blaise Matuidi. They should improve on their 10th place finish of last year if Neville can put his system in place and have the player playing well enough before they have dug too deep a hole.

Attendance – Capped at 45% or about 8,000 fans.

Top Question – After their poor season last year are the ex-Juventus duo of Higuain and Matuidi motivated to turn their play around?

Projection – While better than last year and expect to see some improvement, expect them to be on the outside looking in come November.

CF Montreal – Thierry Henry, famed French superstar left after only one season managing the club due to personal reasons. The club quickly hired Wilfried Nancy as his replacement. The club will likely look to this season as one to set the direction for the future. Establish a culture and style of play down the road. The problem historically in Montreal has been their inability to get on a track and stay on that track for more than two seasons. Constant change just makes it difficult to build a sustainable program.

Attendance – TBD

Top Question – Losing Henry is a tough blow to absorb. Can Nancy build enough progress to keep fans and management happy to allow a program to grow over several seasons?

Projection – Highly doubtful they are a playoff contender. Too young and don’t have an established identity.

Nashville SC – By any metric their first season in MLS was hugely successful. Making it to the Eastern Conference semi-finals was a superb start in Nashville. They were led by two stellar center backs in Dave Romney and Walker Zimmerman (2020 MLS Defender of the Year). They established the all time lowest goals/game allowed for an expansion team in MLS history and they should have a stout defense again this year.

Attendance – Capped at 33% or about 22,800 fans they will can have the most fans in attendance in the league to start the season.

Top Question – Will getting a full season together for Hany Mukhtar, Randall Leal, and Jhonder Cadiz boosts Mukhtar’s scoring potential? They need more than 4 goals and 4 assists in 15 appearances from him this year.

Projection – Competitive team that may just slide into the playoffs.

New England Revolution – The Revs were a team that snuck up a bit on their opponents in the playoffs making the Eastern Conference Final. Showing just how important form and fitness are. They finally got healthy at the end of the season just in time to make a deep run in the playoffs. And with the attacking trio of Carles Gil, Gustavo Bou and Adam Buksa they will score plenty of goals.

Attendance – Capped at 12% or about 7,900 fans.

Top Question – Matt Turner had his best season tending goal for the Revs. A two part question for 2021 really. Will Turner maintain his high level of play and if he ends up spending much time this summer with the USMNT, how well do the backups fill in?

Projection – Top 2 or 3 in the Conference.

New York City FC – One of the best teams in MLS for a bunch of players you’ve likely never heard of. But what they lack in star power they more than make up for with fundamentally sound players that understand how manager Ronny Deila wants them to play. And they continue to develop strong homegrown talent, with defensive midfielder James Sands the top guy right now. Sands will likely end up playing in Europe, he’s that good.

Attendance – Capped at 20% or about 10,800 fans.

Top Question – They have two open Designated Player (DP) slots. Will they make some big time use of those this summer?

Projection – 50-50 playoff team. Not a top team in the Conference but in the mix for a lower playoff spot.

New York Red Bulls – The problem for Red Bull fans (and this applies to City as well), is that sports fans in the Big Apple are too stuck on their team getting the mega superstars; making the splashy signings. Nothing wrong with that and the Yankees have been successful doing that for years. But the salary structures in MLS are a bit tighter than MLB. They are going to play a high press system under manager Gerhard Struber.

Attendance – 15% capacity or around 3,750 fans.

Top Question – With all the matches they have this season, playing a high press style will require a lot of depth. Do they have it?

Projection – Bottom tier of a playoff team.

Orlando City – Fun. One word to describe watching OC. They play possession. They like to build out of the back. But don’t get caught napping or they will run a long ball down the wings and catch you flat footed. With one time Portugal national star Nani to Pedro Gallese in the net they are two deep in quality at every position. But the key may flow through midfielders Mauricio Pereya and Andres Perea.

Attendance – Capped at 50% or about 12,750 fans.

Top Question – How much money are they going to get in a transfer fee for Daryl Dike? Fully expect him to stay in Europe and return over $20M. So who takes up the scoring slack if he leaves?

Projection – Top 3 or 4 in the Conference.

Philadelphia Union – The Union had their best ever season last year winning the Supporters’ Shield. And they did so with a quite young team. Then they capped off the season by selling two homegrown talents to big European clubs. The good news is they made a bunch of money doing so. The bad news is that they now have to replace Brenden Aaronson and Mark McKenzie.

Attendance – Capped at 50% capacity so about 9,00 fans.

Top Question – Who replaces Aaronson and McKenzie, two of the top players in MLS?

Projection – Expect them to be a solid playoff team. Don’t get down on them if they don’t look as sharp in the early season. It will take a month or two for the new players to find their roles.

Toronto FC – Last years MVP, Alejandro Pozuelo is back. As are Michael Bradley, Jozy Altidore, and Omar Gonzalez. Chris Armas has taken charge of the club and word out of camp is that the players are really buying into what he is trying to build. But Bradley and Altidore are another year into their 30s?

Attendance – TBD

Top Question – Can Armas get the most out of youngsters Ayo Akinola, Jayden Nelson, Ralph Priso, and Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty.

Projection – Likely to take a small step back this season but still a playoff side.

Western Conference

Austin FC – A first year club led by two names familiar to US soccer fans. Claudio Reyna, sporting director, and Josh Wolff, manager, are both ex USMNT players. And Reyna is arguably one of the top all time US players. They have built a strong roster with a good mix of proven MLS players and players from overseas. And they kept a DP spot free for a potential big move this summer depending on how they are doing.

Attendance – New stadium opens June 21. Attendance planned to be set about 4 weeks ahead of that.

Top Question – Numerous expansion teams have demonstrated success in their first season. Most recently, Nashville, last year. Can Reyna and Wolff bring that same kind of magic to Austin?

Projection – Expect them to be competitive but likely to fall short of the playoffs.

Colorado Rapids – They played the fewest games in MLS last year yet still made the playoffs. Not only due to the rules last year (based on average points earned per match) but the old fashioned way, pure total points. That was a pretty solid season. This offseason die hard Rapids fans were clamoring for them to sign a DP. Unfortunately they didn’t. But they also didn’t lose much this offseason either and return the vast majority of their talent.

Attendance – Capped at 44% or about 7,900 fans.

Top Question – Can a team lacking in star power play well enough as a unit to stay a playoff team.

Projection – Probably a playoff team. They will be a tough out at home given their youth and the altitude in Denver.

FC Dallas – One of the strongest youth programs in MLS and they have done well developing their homegrown players, building a team around them and then parlaying selling those players so the next crop can get on the field. The latest transfers were for outside backs Reggie Cannon and Brian Reynolds. They still have several homegrown talents this year though, in Jesus Ferreira, Tanner Tessman, and Ricardo Pepi along with the return of Paxton Pomykal.

Attendance – Capped at 50% or 9,000 fans.

Top Question – How well will they meld in South American talents Jadar Orbrian and Freddy Vargas?

Projection – On the bubble for the playoffs.

Houston Dynamo – Interesting to see how manager Tab Ramos has them playing this year. They have been a real enigma of late. One game look like world beaters then a team that looks like a pick up squad the next. Regardless of how they ultimately perform expect that Ramos will have them playing they way he expects and they will be in shape.

Attendance – Capped at 30% or about 6,200 fans.

Top Question – Will they continue to progress under Ramos?

Projection – Competitive but probably fall short of the playoffs.

LAFC – One of the most if not the most exciting team to watch in the league. They attack, they attack some more, then when the game is almost over….well, they attack some more. The downside is that they sometimes forget that you also have to keep the other team from scoring at least less than you do! And in 2 of the last 3 seasons they have allowed goals but the truckload. As mentioned in the lead in Carlos Vela is back. He and Diego Rossi could combine for 40 goals.

Attendance – A whopping 100 fans/match.

Top Question – Do they approach the form they showed in 2019?

Projection – Top 1 or 2 in the Conference and will be aiming at earning home field for the playoffs. Preseason favorites to win it all.

LA Galaxy – Newly appointed manager Greg Vanney returns to the club he played for in their inaugural season. He has some work to do. The roster has the talent with guys like Chicharito, Sebastian Lleget, and Jonathon dos Santos. But somehow, every season, they seem to play below what they should on paper. Up to Vanney to turn that around.

Attendance – Same as LAFC, a whopping 100 fans/game.

Top Question – Pretty much already laid it out. Can Vanney get them to play consistently to the level they are capable of?

Projection – A chance at making the playoffs but maybe too much work for Vanney to pull off in his first season.

Minnesota United – Coming off their best MLS season yet they have a really solid and deep midfield. And their backline was fine even missing Ike Opara, which they may miss again this season. The biggest issue is that they have some holes mostly at center forward. If someone steps up at the #9 or they find one during the transfer window they are a top team.

Attendance – Capped at 25% or about 5,000 fans.

Top Question – Where do the goals come from?

Projection – Close to a top 3 side in the Conference.

Portland Timbers – Sebastian Blanco will be back to a team that finished in the top 3 in the Conference without him. Seba just makes them that much better. And they have a roster filled with top talent not the least of which are Diego Valeri and Diego Chara, 2 all time MLS greats. You will see this team well into November.

Attendance – Capped at 25% or about 6,300 fans.

Top Question – Can the defense figure out how to stop giving up goals in the last 15 minutes? That’s a really nasty habit.

Projection – Legit MLS Cup and CONCACAF Champions League contenders.

Real Salt Lake – A club with a great soccer venue, a great fan base, in a beautiful setting. All which adds up to a fun club to watch and follow. However, as nice as those things are, you still have to have a roster of talent to compete. And while they won’t get blown of the pitch they still are a ways away from being really competitive. But there have been lots of changes and they should show some progress this season. Look for Bobby Wood to try and recapture his career.

Attendance – Capped at 50% or 10,000 fans.

Top Question – Can goalkeeper David Ochoa take the reins as a the full time #1 and earn his way into solid consideration for #2 on the USMNT depth chart?

Projection – Probably going home at the end of the regular season.

San Jose Earthquakes – Manager Matias Almeyda utilizes a tactic no other team in MLS does. They play man marking and a vertical attack. What looks like chaos to the casual fan. Well, ok, oftentimes it actual is chaos. But somehow they mostly get away with it and that chaos is really hard for other teams to deal with. Worth watching is Chris Wondolowski. The ageless wonder scored 7 goals in the shortened season last year.

Attendance – Capped at 20% or about 3,600 fans.

Top Question – In year 3 can Almeyda turn the chaos into a bit more consistent play?

Projection – Back half of the season is just loaded with matches and they may not be able to hold up well. Likely fall short of the playoffs.

Seattle Sounders – The most consistent team in the MLS having made the playoffs each of their 12 seasons. And they played in their 4th MLS Cup in the last 5 seasons last year. Any team in any sport would love to have that kind of a run. The biggest news is that Jordan Morris is out and he’s tough to replace. But they still have Nicolas Lodeiro, Cristian Roldan, and Raul Ruidiaz. Oh, and they have Stefan Frei in the nets, and he’s a game changer.

Attendance – Capped at 25% or about 15,000 fans.

Top Question – Who replaces the speed and strength of Jordan Morris on the wing.

Projection – The back loaded schedule actually helps the Sounders. They typically end up the season with a different roster than they started with. Look for them to make some moves this summer and make the playoffs.

Sporting KC – 10 of 27 players on their roster are homegrown and a couple of those (Gianluca Busio and Jaylin Lindsay) are probably full time starters. Alan Pulido and Johnny Russel in the attack will provide lots of excitement. They lead the Western Conference last season

Attendance – Capped at 35% or 6,500 fans.

Top Question – Wilson Harris has scored 4 goals in 3 preseason matches. Does he have a breakout year?

Projection – Should easily make the playoffs and could make a deep run if they stay healthy.

Vancouver Whitecaps – Fans are wondering if this, the 3rd year under manager Marc Dos Santos, is the year they get back to the playoffs having made a decent step forward in 2020. They do have some talent but they are missing a major piece. They simple do not have an attacking midfielder. Lacking a playmaker means they have to get creative in making things happen.

Attendance – TBD

Top Question – Can they find a playmaker or find a way to create chances without one?

Projection – Probably fall short of the playoffs.