MLS 2023 – Early Season Full of Surprises

Just about a third into the 2023 MLS season and there have been a lot of surprises thus far. Some of them good and some of them not so good. Well at least depending on your perspectives. Before we get into a look at each club lets take a jog around the league and look at some of the interesting stuff so far.

1. History was made on Saturday April 29th when for the first time ever, an MLS match was overseen by a crew of 3 female referees. The 0-0 draw between the the Vancouver Whitecaps and Colorado Rapids was officiated by Tori Penso (head referee), Brooke Mayo (assistant referee), and Felisha Mariscal (4th official) and was a well officiated match with minimal controversy. Well done ladies!
2. The Chicago Fire signed a lease for a new state-of-the-art training facility to be built this year near the Roosevelt Square area. A big move aimed toward bolstering this long time club as it tries to find a way to get back to prominence in the league.
3. The Chicago Fire canned head coach Ezra Hendrickson replacing him with Frank Klopas and the NY Red Bull canned their coach Gerhard Struber promoting assistant Troy Lesesne to replace him. The Red Bull move was certainly coming but the Fire move surprised many. Thus is the life of a head coach in sports.
4. The St. Louis City FC became the first team in history to start the season with three consecutive come-from-behind wins, the first expansion side to win two of their first three MLS games on the road, and have tied the record starting their first season with 3 straight wins (2009 Seattle Sounders).
5. Owen Wolf, son of Austin FC head coach Josh Wolf, made history when he scored the winning goal in Austin’s 2-1 win over Real Salt Lake. They became the 8th father and son duo to both score in the MLS. Josh’ first of his 80 career goals came way back in 1998. Pretty cool to also be your kid’s coach!
6. On April 2nd, Chicago Fire’s Chris Brady became the 2nd youngest keeper to ever earn a clean sheet in the MLS a mere 29 days after his 19th birthday. The record holder? Gabriel Slonina who did it at the age of 17. Also for the Chicago Fire. Seems like lots of things, good and bad, happen around the Fire.

While there are plenty of other story lines we could get into lets move on to our team-by-team look. Sure, there’s a long ways to go but plenty of matches have been played to give us a pretty good idea of the end of season prognosis. Lets make a comparison between what we have been seeing versus the pre-season projections made back in February (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/mls-2023-whats-in-store-for-fans-this-summer/).

Eastern Conference

Atlanta FC:

2023 Projection – 3rd

Current Standings – 4th

Playing about par thus far. in fact they lead the conference in goals scored. Alas, they next to last in the conference in goals allowed. Starting keeper Brad Guzan is out with a knee injury until July and they are clearly missing his veteran presence in the back. Still if they keep scoring and cobble together enough defense till he’s back they should be in fine shape for the playoffs.

CF Montreal:

2023 Projection – 7th

Current Standings – 11th

The preseason predictions came down to 2 camps. Those that thought they had enough horses to endure/replace the loss Djorde Mihailovic thought they would still be a top 3 or 4 team. The other camp, me included, didn’t think they had done enough to bolster their midfiled. Expected starter Matko Miljevic has been out since the preseason with a knee injury. They need him back and soon. Their -8 goal differential is awful (worst in the conference) and they might struggle to make the postseason.

Charlotte FC:

2023 Projection – 12th

Current Standings – 12th.

Not much to say except they are playing about as expected. The good news is that Charlotte fans continue to attend their home games in droves. For their first 5 home games they have average 39,000 fans behind only those crazies in Atlanta seeing almost 48K fans.

Chicago Fire:

2023 Projection – 13th

Current Standings – 14th

Well the good news is that they are undefeated at home going 1-5-0. The bad news is that 1-0-3 on the road coupled with a but 8 points in 6 home matches won’t cut it. Don’t expect to see them in the playoffs. Maybe the new training facility will spark some turnaround for this club. And they need it sitting dead last in attendance with only 12,000 fans/match. A full 2,000 fans/match less than the next worst club in attendance (San Jose).

Columbus Crew:

2023 Projection – 10th

Current Standings – 6th

A mild surprise thus far. Their new coach Wilfried Nancy has them playing nice attacking soccer with them 2nd in scoring in the conference with 19 goals.  A +7 goal differential has them sitting a bit better than expected and having an experienced coach like Nancy might just carry them to the postseason. If midfielders Lucas Zelerayan and Aidan Morris and forward Christian Ramirez continue to score at their current pace good things await Crew fans.

D.C. United:

2023 Projection – 15th

Current Standings – 8th

Scored 15 times. Allowed 15 goals. 2-1-2 at home and 2-1-3 on the road. The really good news for United fans is that coach Wayne Rooney has them playing sound fundamental soccer and believing in what he’s selling. They are young and eager and if they continue to learn and not get ahead of themselves they just might (ok don’t bet on them yet) might make the playoffs.

FC Cincinnati:

2023 – 4th

Current Standings – 2nd

Keep an eye on this team. They are playing a tight compact defense with enough scoring to beat anybody. The don’t lose at home (6-0-0 thus far) and are pretty good on the road (1-3-1). They don’t have a top scorer but they tend to spread the wealth around. Which isn’t a bad thing. If they can get a hot forward or midfielder to find a bit more scoring touch they could be a real threat come November.

Inter Miami CF:

2023 Projection – 14th

Current Standings – 10th

Been a bit of an odd team thus far. They don’t score but they don’t give up goals either. They tend to keep the game in the middle of the field. That can only go so far. They look to be on the cusp of the play in game come the playoffs. Just don’t see the talent to carry them far if they do sneak in.

Nashville SC:

2023 Projection – 8th

Current Standings – 3rd

What the heck is happening in Nashville? That tremendous defense that seemed to have gone by the wayside has returned in force. They lead the league in goals allowed with a mere 6 in their first 11 matches. When you allow less than 0.5 goals/match you don’t have to score many to have a terrific season. USMNT defender Walker Zimmerman has been showing why he’s a mainstay on tje back line for the US. He’s simply one of the best in MLS especially in the air. They look to be back to their roots as one of the top defending teams in the league. If that continues watch them closely come November. Oh and keep and eye on Hany Mukthar. He leads the league in shots and if starts finding the net they could be very tough.

New England Revolution:

2023 Projection – 11th

Current Standings – 1st

Bruce Arena has really turned this club around. While that’s not necessarily a surprise as he’s one of the best soccer minds in the country, what is a surprise is how high he has gotten them. Having the best goal differential in the conference is a solid way to go. And as I mentioned in the preseason look, keeper Dlordje Petrovic is a monster. Figuratively and literally. The 6ft 4 in beast leads the league in saves and is 2nd in save percentage.

New York City FC:

2023 Projection – 2nd

Current Standings – 5th

An interesting start to their season. They haven’t lost at home (4-1-0) but they haven’t won on the road either (0-2-4). Honestly not sure what to make of them so far? Might be early enough that the just haven’t started to gel or maybe one of those seasons where they just muddle through. That was the preseason thought on them and its playing out. The good news is that the didn’t dig themselves a big hole. They should be fine.

New York Red Bull:

2023 Projection – 9th

Current Standings – 15th

Ok a drop this year was projected but not this. They stepped to the edge of the earth and then took another step. The preseason concern as for a team that had a pretty bleh attack they didn’t do much in the offseason to fix it. Well they are worse this year. They have scored a palty 7 goals thus far. Only Kansas City has fewer. Firing their coach was a step. Not sure its going to be enough to turn this team around. Sure defense wins championships but at some point you have to score. No team ever actually won a game 0-0 without at least scoring in penalties.

Orlando City SC:

2023 Projection – 5th

Current Standings – 9th

Taken a bit of step back thus far although with the game in hand they have they could jump up several spots with a W. Another side that just seems to be trying to find their identify. On equal footing offensively and defensively so not any kind of a hole they need to dig out of just haven’t found much of a form. But long term they need to find some scoring threats. A minus goal differential is never a good place to be. Rookie Duncan McGuire leads the club with 3 goals but in only 269 minutes. If he can build up to a full time player and maintain his scoring pace they may be on to something.

 

Philadelphia Union:

2023 – 1st

Current Standings – 7th

Well its a good news bad news thing in Philly. While they haven’t been as sharp as one would like having lost to LAFC in CONCACAF Champions League they can now focus entirely on MLS play. So while they’d have like to made the CCL finals we all saw how that worked out for Seattle last season so perhaps this is a blessing in disguise. Also good news is that since US Soccer has hired their new Technical Director (Matt Crocker) it doesn’t appear that the Union coach Jim Curtin is a main candidate the the USMNT job. Time will tell but suspect once that decision has been made all the potential US coaches currently in the MLS will be happy to not have that distraction anymore. Philly should move up the table the rest of the way although I don’t see a 1st place finish in the cards.

Toronto FC:

2023 Projection – 6th

Current Standings – 12th

The potential issue outlined in the preseason was their lack of depth and an aging roster. But their are some good signs. Lorenzo Insigne returned after missing a bunch of games. Insigne is the highest paid player in MLS and is key to their success. Then in late April they obtained striker C. J. Sapong in a trade with Nashville and he promptly scored the game winner in his first match with the new club. He will be a solid player up north but the problem is he also adds to their age issue. At 34 he also poses the risk of having a tough time staying healthy for a full time run and they will need him to stay on the field if they want to be playing in the post season.

Western Conference

Austin FC:

2023 Projection – 2nd

Current Standings – 12th

Are you kidding me? What the heck is going on with Josh Wolf’s side? One of the top teams in the league last year and seemed setup for another very good season. But thus far they just don’t win (2-4-4) and a playoff team that does not make. But its early and fans down in Austin while worried should be cautiously optimistic. They have talent across the spectrum and their should score more and allow less than the pace they have set so far. They have two key matches coming up over the next week or so. Hosting Dallas for Rivalry Week then off to Seattle. Good time for them to show something.

Colorado Rapids:

2023 Projection – 11th

Current Standings – 10th

About as expected. The rest of the league, or most of it anyway, has continues to improve their overall talent and depth. The Rapids seemed to be stuck in 2021 when they won the Western Conference. Stagnation is usually not a good thing in any business but especially sports.

FC Dallas:

2023 Projection – 5th

Current Standings – 5th

Par so far and given the makeup of this club that’s not a bad place to be. Not a bad place at all. As the weather improves and teams find their form expect Dallas to start finding the back of the next at an improve pace. USMNT forward Jesus Ferriera is scoring having found the net 5 times thus far. If they find another scoring threat up to or in the midfield they will be a handful for a lot of teams. I don’t think they have quite the horses for a deep run come November but once you get in……well you know the saying anything can happen.

Houston Dynamo FC:

2023 – 13th

Current Standings – 6th

Well surprise, surprise. Coach Ben Olsen does have the Dynamo playing a fun to watch brand of soccer. But now Dynamo fans are also paying attention to the standings. Not only are they sitting in 6th they have a game in hand over every team not named LAFC and they actually have two games in hand over half the teams. The media down there needs to start pushing them more. Their attendance is not very good for such a hot bed of soccer with just under 17,000 fans/match. Certainly Houston is a baseball town but come on Houston. Support these guys.

Los Angeles Galaxy:

2023 Projection – 3rd

Current Standings – 13th

What a flop so far. In the preseason the theme for the Galaxy was to use their MLS best overall midfield and control the middle of the field. Well that hasn’t worked out thus far. They have allowed the 2nd most goals in the league resulting in a pathetic 1-3-6 record. That 6 points tied for worst with Sporting KC of which they are ahead on goal differential. They have dug themselves a cavern to get out of. They may still make the playoffs but no way they can move up to a top 4 spot.

Los Angeles FC:

2023 Projection – 1st

Current Standings – 3rd

Well they have made the CCL final. So it doesn’t appear that their focus on CCL has hurt them much in league play. They only sit 2 points out of 1st but with two games in hand over Seattle. LAFC is playing very solid soccer and have the conference fewest goals allowed. Denis Bouanga is leading the league in goals and as a team the Galaxy are leading the league in key passes (a pretty solid metric to look at for overall level of play). Of course I am pulling for them to win the CCL giving MLS two wins in a row. LAFC is well setup for the rest of the season and a deep playoff run.

Minnesota United:

2023 Projection – 9th

Current Standings – 8th

The Loons have played essentially 50-50 ball thus far but have been on the road more than at home so there’s some expectation for a little bump up. The best potential news, and the key word here is potential, is the return of midfielder Emanuel Reynoso. Suspended back in mid-February for not showing up for the preseason training camp and has been out since. However, the team has announced that he is working towards a return. How big a boost would his return be? In 76 overall MLS matches he has combined for 18 goals and more importantly 35 assists. He is clearly one of the top playmakers in the league. Keep your fingers crossed up in the north country. Help might be on the way.

Portland Timbers:

2023 Prediction – 6th

Current Standings – 9th

There’s quite a log jam at the moment and the difference between 10th and 5th place in just 3 points. Expect to see a fair bit of jumping around in the standings for another couple of months. And also expect to see the Timber staying in playoff contention. One of the key issues for the Timber going into the season was their lack of depth. While they have two really strong defensive midfielders (Eryk Williamson and Diego Chara) Williamson has had a history of injuries and sure enough for the second time in 20 months he suffered second ACL tear and is out for the rest of the season. That’s a tough pill to swallow. Everytime he started to play well and had earned another callup to the USMNT he has gone down with an injury. This puts a bit of a hurting on the Timbers chances the rest of the way.

Real Salt Lake:

2023 Projection – 12th

Current Standings – 11th

About as expected although perhaps a bit worse on the defensive end of the field. Allowing 17 goals (2nd worst in the league) in 10 matches is not good and I don’t think they have the horses to turn it around much. Expect them to be watching the playoffs from home.

San Jose Earthquakes:

2023 Projection – 8th

Current Standings – 4th

While many, me included thought the Quakies were primed for a move up the table this season this is still a pretty big surprise. They have been just deadly at home (5-1-0). If they can find a bit more on the road they could have a terrific season. Cade Cowell has been a bit of a disappointment thus far. IF he finds some offensive thrust the rest of the way San Jose fans are in for a fun summer.

Seattle Sounders:

2023 Projection – 4th

Current Standings – 1st

What a terrific start to the season for the Sounders looking to atone for their horrible finish last year. Winning the CCL cost them during the MLS season and they finished out of the playoffs, That isn’t happening this year. They have been firing on all cylinders lead by USMNT forward Jordan Morris. Morris seems to have fully recovered from his knee injury two season ago and has gotten most of his speed back. His speed and physical strength are tough for defenses to handle. And so far they have not been handling him very well as he is tied for the lead league in goals with 8 giving Seattle fans (3rd in attendance with over 30,000 fans/match) plenty to cheer for.

Sporting Kansas City:

2023 Prediction – 7th

Current Standings – 14th

Sporting fans are wondering why coach Peter Vermes was given a 5 year extension before the season because their play thus far has been just awful. Worst in the league awful. They can’t score. They don’t defend. They just lose. Its a testament to their fans that they are still averaging over 18.000 fans/match. Nobody can claim Sporting fans to be fair weather. On the bright side they did beat the Sounders 2-1 in Seattle!

St. Louis City SC:

2023 Projection – 14th

Current Standings – 2nd

Ok them have come down to earth a bit after their record setting performance out the game winning their first 5 matches but still who would have thought they would be 6-1-3 in their first ever season! While they play pretty fair in the back they are making their way in the attack with a league leading 22 goals (2 better than next best team AND with a game in hand). If they keep scoring like this they may well finish top 4. Led by forward Joao Strauss with 5 goals, what has really been impressive is that 9 different players have scored for them already. Kudos to this club for not holding back. What a fun team to watch.

Vancouver Whitecaps:

2023 Projection – 10th

Current Standings – 7th

A nice surprise for our neighbors to the northwest and they are doing it with a really stout defense having allowed just 9 goals in their first 10 matches. So Caps fans are excited but tempering expectations with the history that when they start to build something they fall on their face. Perhaps they can sustain this well enough to see the into the playoffs. Good luck Caps!

 

While there’s a long way to go yet this season I believe we have seen enough of each team to have a fair understanding of just good they are. Or aren’t as the case may be.