After a long season its finally here. Playoff time with the first round matches occurring this Saturday and Sunday. With the new format this season, both LAFC and NYCFC earned first round byes and home field advantage as long as they are still in.The 2, 3, and 4 seeds in each conference host the 7, 6, and 5 seeds respectively. For the remainder of the playoffs the lower seed will host each the conference semi-finals and finals but bear in mind that no reseeding will occur since the initial bracketing. So, for instance, lets say in the Western Conference that Minnesota (4), Portland (6) and Dallas (7) each win their Round 1 game. LAFC will still host Minnesota and Portland will host Dallas.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
After a grueling 34 game season, not counting games played for the Supporters Shield, CONCACAF Champions League, CONCACAF League of Nations, CONCACAF Gold Cup, and other national team games, the players are tired. So the Round 1 byes earned by LAFC and NYCFC is a big advantage. Doesn’t mean its a given they will win their Conference Semi-Finals but being at home and rested? Don’t bet against them. So lets look at this weekends matches and what to expect.
Western Conference
Real Salt Lake – Portland Timbers:
During the regular season the Timbers won both matches by a combined score of 3-1. However, the teams have met twice during previous playoffs with Real winning both by a combined 5-2. These two teams are pretty evenly matched across the board. Goals scored, goals allowed, and the subsequent differential are very close with Real at 46/41/+5 and the Timbers at 52/49/+3. Real is a strong team at home having gone 12-4-1 but the Timbers at 6-8-3 are one of the better road teams in the league. However, Real has gone 3-2-1 down the stretch while the Timbers were a woeful 1-2-3. Although the Timbers one win did come on Decision Sunday to get them into the playoffs.
In the end its at Salt Lake in what might be the final appearance for their long time keeper and fan favorite Nick Rimando. Slight edge to Real to move on.
Minnesota United FC – LA Galaxy:
The Galaxy beat the Loons in LA back in March 3-2 then the two sides drew 0-0 in April in Minnesota. Neither team comes in really hot or cold. In their last 6 games the Loons have gone 2-2-2 while the Galaxy have gone 3-3-0. For the season the Loons had a scoring line of 52/43/+9 second best in the conference. The Galaxy were a pedestrian 58/59/-1. Season wise Minnesota was very tough at home with but a single home defeat. The Galaxy are an ok team on the road having gone 5-10-2.
The plus side for the Loons is their really strong home record and good goal differential. The Galaxy having lost their last two games to teams that didn’t even make the playoffs doesn’t bode well for them. But they do have the #2 goal scorer in the league in Zlatan Ibrahimovic. If he can pull off some magic they have a chance. But I think the Loons earn their first ever playoff win.
Seattle Sounders – FC Dallas:
Both teams come into the playoff playing decent soccer their last 6 games. The Sounders come it at 3-2-1 while Dallas has gone 2-2-2. Head-to-head this year Dallas won at home and drew on the road. Dallas needed a win on Decision Sunday to advance and they did in fine fashion besting Sporting Kansas City 6-0. The Sounders also won on Decision Sunday beating the #2 seed Loons 1-0. Historically the two teams have met 11 times in Seattle and the Sounders are a resounding 9-1-1 outscoring Dallas 29-8. However their playoff matchups have been very even with each team having 2 wins and one game resulting in a draw. The big difference in this game isn’t goal scoring or defense with the Sounders having a scoring line of 52/49/3 with Dallas at 54/46/8. Dallas actually tied for the fourth best goal differential in the league. That’s their good news. Now the bad. Seattle is very good in the land of green having gone 11-2-4 (third best in the league) while Dallas is weak on the road (3-11-3).
Playing in front of a sold out Century Link field and with Men’s National team forward Jordan Morris in very good form look for the Sounders to advance, perhaps all the way to the Conference Final which everyone fully expects to be at LAFC.
Eastern Conference
Toronto – DC United:
This might be on of the tightest matchups in the first round. Both these teams come in playing very well. Toronto has gone 3-0-3 in their last 6 games. In fact they have not lost a game since clear back on August third. DC comes in having gone 3-1-2 over their last six and have held clean sheets in five straight games. The two teams drew both of their games during the regular season. Toronto had a scoring line of 57/52/+5 for the year while DC’s line was 42/38/+4. So Toronto tends to score more but allow more and DC is more defensive minded. Cool fall weather can favor the defensive teams and Toronto is certainly prone to cold weather at this time of year. But home field is a big advantage as well. Toronto was 9-4-4 at home during the regular season but DC was a solid 6-6-5 on the road. DC isn’t afraid of anybody on the road but I think this boils down to Toronto striker Jozy Altidore. If he’s fit and fully back from injury then I think that puts Toronto over the top. If he can’t go or is slow and not fit then DC has a good shot to pull of the road upset.
Philadelphia Union – NY Red Bulls:
Two teams coming in with identical, and not good, final stretches at 2-3-1. The Union had a chance to actually take the top seed in the conference but instead ended up in 3rd with two season ending losses. The Red Bulls had a shot at finishing 4th and getting a home match but they got shutout on Decision Sunday so ended up on the road for the first round. Both teams are disappointed in their finish and will be looking to atone for that this weekend. One will make amends and one will go home shaking their head. The two teams split their regular season series with each winning at home. Both teams had +goal differentials on the season with the Union having a 57/52/+5 scoring line with the Red Bulls’ 53/51/+2. So both teams score and allow goals at about the same pace. The Union were a good team at home going 10-3-4 while the Red Bulls were not too good on the road going 5-9-3.
This should be a tight and close match but at home I believe the Union find the back of the net, something the Red Bulls failed to do in their final two games. Andre Blake, Union and Jamaican keeper get a clean sheet in this one.
Atlanta United FC – New England Revolution:
United had the third highest point total in the league and the Revs finished in the last playoff spot in the East. United defends, scores, and plays in front of 70,000 fans. During the regular season they were 12-2-3 at home with a scoring line of 58/43/+15. The Revs on the other hand were 3-6-8 on the road with a scoring line of 50/57/-7, by far the worst scoring differential of any team in the playoffs. United finished up the season on a 3-2-1 run while the Revs went 1-2-3. Oh, and lets not forget that this is a rematch of the two teams season finale. On Decision Day United trashed the Revs 5-1. While I don’t expect to see that kind of score this next time, United wins easily and moves on. Watch out for forward Josef Martinez in the playoffs. Hes back, healthy, and hungry. I expect to see Atlanta traveling to NYCFC for the Conference Championship.
So there you have it. All the action is Saturday and Sunday and all the games will be aired on the ESPN or Fox family of channels.
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.