The first round of the NCAA tournament is a beautiful celebration of college basketball with 32 games happening across two days. However, not every game is guaranteed to be a compelling matchup.
So, here’s my pick for the most interesting first-round matchup in each of the four regions.
West: #7 Michigan State vs #10 Davidson
Let me be honest about why I’m picking this game: it’s because the winner will most likely get the chance to eliminate #2 seed Duke in Mike Krzyzewski’s final NCAA tournament.
While there is a chance that #15 seed Cal State Fullerton pulls off the funniest upset in the history of the tournament, we’re probably going to see the winner of this matchup face the Blue Devils with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
Just about any 7-10 matchup would’ve been interesting knowing the winner could face Coach K but this game especially provides two compelling storylines for a meeting with Duke.
If Michigan State wins, Coach K could be sent home by another legendary head coach in Tom Izzo. Izzo is 2-3 in the tournament against Duke, most recently beating Zion Williamson’s 2018-19 team in the Elite Eight.
Quite interestingly, the Spartans also have found prior success as a #7 seed. They reached the Elite Eight in 2003 and the Final Four in 2015 as a #7 seed, demonstrating that Izzo is certainly comfortable knowing that a #2 seed could be waiting in the round of 32.
Meanwhile, Davidson winning would mean that Duke could be eliminated by another school in North Carolina. Davidson last played Duke in 2013, so it’d certainly be a big opportunity for the Wildcats to get a chance to play Duke for the first time in nine years.
Adding to the intrigue is Davidson head coach Bob McKillop. While he lacks the tournament resume of Izzo, he’s certainly been very successful at the Davidson job. He’s held the position since 1989 and has over 600 career wins, including the legendary run to the Elite Eight in 2008 with Stephen Curry. Adding a victory over another legendary coach would certainly improve an already impressive career resume.
Regardless of if this game is close or a blowout, it will be quite easily the most interesting matchup in this region because of who will presumably be awaiting them in the round of 32.
East: #6 Texas vs #11 Virginia Tech
After five successful seasons at #3 seed Texas Tech, Chris Beard decided to take the job at #6 seed Texas in April 2021. Since making that decision, Beard has gone 0-2 against the Red Raiders and finished below Texas Tech in the Big 12 standings.
Now, Beard will find himself looking to advance further in the tournament than Texas Tech and that journey will begin with a team entering the tournament on a hot streak: #11 seed Virginia Tech Hokies, fresh off of winning the ACC tournament.
The Hokies entered the conference tournament as a bubble team and ended their time in Brooklyn with an automatic appearance in the NCAA tournament, winning four straight games to punch their ticket. Virginia Tech completed their conference tournament run in style, denying Coach K a victory in his final ACC game with a 15-point win.
This is the most interesting matchup in the region because of the contrast in expectations. Texas was #5 in the preseason in the AP Poll, while Virginia Tech began the year unranked. The Longhorns have a coach who made the Final Four in 2019, while Hokies head coach Mike Young has one tournament win in his career between Virginia Tech and Wofford.
Texas also provides intrigue for this matchup because they haven’t won a tournament game since 2014. The Longhorns are on a four-game losing streak in the NCAA tournament, including last year’s defeat to #14 seed Abilene Christian.
Virginia Tech is playing with house money after its first ACC tournament title in school history, while Texas is playing with plenty of pressure between its preseason expectations and their new head coach they took from an in-state rival. I’m looking forward to seeing how that’ll impact this matchup.
South: #6 Colorado State vs #11 Michigan
#11 seed Michigan has probably the most debated resume of any team to make the tournament this year.
They’re 17-14, having lost more games this year than anyone else in the tournament. They went 2-7 against ranked teams and have a rough home loss against a Minnesota team that went 4-16 in Big Ten play. The Wolverines also missed multiple chances for a strong win in out-of-conference play, losing to #1 seed Arizona, #8 seed Seton Hall and #8 seed North Carolina.
They also went winless in the Big Ten tournament, blowing a 17-point lead against an Indiana team that went on to earn a #12 seed and an appearance in a play-in game against #12 seed Wyoming.
However, they did beat #5 seed Iowa and #7 seed Ohio State on the road and also dominated #3 seed Purdue in an 82-58 victory in Ann Arbor.
Michigan’s resume will understandably be compared to Dayton, the first team out. The Flyers were 23-10 and 14-4 in the Atlantic 10. Unfortunately for them, they suffered a trio of especially poor losses compared to Michigan’s worse defeats. UMass Lowell, Lipscomb and Austin Peay all beat the Flyers at home, tarnishing a resume that includes wins over #1 seed Kansas and #10 seed Miami.
The Wolverines will get to prove if a 14-loss team should make the tournament as an at-large against the #6 seed Colorado State Rams from the Mountain West.
The Rams finished second in the Mountain West, going 14-4 after an unbeaten out-of-conference slate that included wins over #5 seed Saint Mary’s and #8 seed Creighton. They have an offense that ranks 20th for efficiency on Kenpom and the Rams are one of the best teams in the country for avoiding turnovers on offense.
This is also their first NCAA tournament since 2013, so there’s certainly been some waiting in Fort Collins to see the Rams return to March Madness.
There’s no shortage of people skeptical of Michigan making the tournament and we’ll get to see if that skepticism will be deserved when they get their chance against the highest seed from the Mountain West.
Midwest: #4 Providence vs #13 South Dakota State
What happens when you get the team that is #1 in luck on Kenpom against the team is #1 in three-point percentage? We’ll find out on Thursday in Buffalo.
Being #1 in luck for Kenpom doesn’t mean a team has been lucky based on fluky deflections or fortunate officiating but instead that a team has enjoyed an especially good record in close games.
That is certainly true for #4 seed Providence, who are 11-2 in games decided by five points or fewer. Amusingly enough, the only times they’ve lost a close game this year have come in each of their two meetings against #2 seed Villanova.
You can look at these results and conclude Providence is a clutch team that can handle itself in close games and you wouldn’t be wrong.
However, some of their close wins have come against weaker teams where a narrow victory is hardly impressive.
Needing overtime at home against DePaul, who went 6-14 in Big East play, certainly isn’t ideal. Butler also went 6-14 in Big East play and Providence only narrowly beat them twice, further demonstrating that the Friars have found themselves in close games against weaker opponents.
The fact that Providence is considered a top-16 team in the country based on their #4 seed while being ranked #49 on Kenpom will certainly be a compelling way to see if on-the-field court results matter more than the analytics that are skeptical of them.
Providence’s reward for repeatedly winning close games is the best three-point shooting team in the country. The #13 seed South Dakota State Jackrabbits have not lost since December 15, entering the NCAA tournament on a 21-game winning streak.
Some fans might see a mid-major leading the country in three-point percentage and shrug that off as simply facing weaker opponents, but their adjusted offensive efficiency on Kenpom ranks 12th in the country. Kenpom’s adjusted efficiency takes into consideration opponent quality, so it means that SDSU’s offense is still incredibly strong even if they’ve spent conference play facing schools like Western Illinois instead of Villanova.
The other noteworthy aspect of SDSU’s three-point shooting is that they’re not simply chucking threes on every possession. Their three-point attempt rate is 34.3 percent, which ranks 257th out of 358 teams. The Jackrabbits are excellent at shooting threes but they don’t make it their entire plan on offense.
The Friars have been doubted by analytics all year. Now, they get a chance to prove they’re deserving of their #4 seed against the best three-point shooting team in the country.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).