MPSSAA Top 50 October 20th

1 Northwest (7-0) – 272-23; v 3 Quince Orchard 10/22

2 Wise (6-0) – 212-26**; @ 26 Eleanor Roosevelt 10/29

3 Quince Orchard (7-0) – 308-56; @ 1 Northwest 10-22

4 Paint Branch (6-1) – 284-52; @ 10 Sherwood 10/22

5 Flowers (6-1) – 245-46;@ 46 Suitland 10/22

6 Linganore (7-0) – 252-98; No games remaining v Top 80

7 Dundalk (7-0) – 225-46; No games remaining v Top 80

8 Milford Mill (6-1) – 251-45; @ Kenwood 10/22, v Parkville 10/28

9 Broadneck (6-1) – 268-98; v 15 Old Mill 10/22

10 Sherwood (6-1) – 227-117; v 4 Paint Branch 10-22

— — — — — — — —

11 Fort Hill (7-0) – 276-87; ‘Homecoming’ v Allegany 10/30

12 Dunbar (7-0) – 326-54; No games remaining v Top 80

13 Mervo (4-1) – 186-54**; v City College TBD

14 Franklin (5-2) – 204-132; No games remaking v Top 80

15 Old Mill (6-1) – 311-58; @ 9 Broadneck 10/22

16 Long Reach (7-0) – 188-44; v 23 Atholton 10/22, @ 31 Oakland Mills 10/29

17 Douglass PG (6-1) – 234-33; v Fairmont Heights 10/22 

18 Blair (5-2) – 172-117; @ Bethesda Chevy Chase 10/29

19 Laurel (5-2) – 204-117; v 50 DuVal 10/30

20 Potomac (3-2) – 141-43***; v 40 Largo 10/22, v Fairmont Heights 10/29

— — — — — — — —

21 Frederick (5-2) – 259-128*; v 24 Oakdale 10-22

22 Glenelg (6-1) – 229-89; No games remaining v Top 80

23 Atholton (6-1) – 187-104; @ 16 Long Reach 10/22, v Mt Hebron 10/29

24 Oakdale (4-3) – 236-162; @ 21 Frederick 10/22

25 Bowie (5-2) – 238-101; v 50 DuVal 10/23

26 Eleanor Roosevelt (5-2) – 220-73; v 2 Wise 10/29

27 Middletown (5-2) – 238-137; @ 33 Walkersville 10/29

28 Kent Island (7-0) – 224-71; @ Queen Anne’s 10/29 

29 Huntingtown (6-1) -162-80; v Great Mills 10/22

30 Northern (6-1) – 224-44; v 41 North Point 10/22

— — — — — — — —

31 Oakland Mills (6-1) – 174-93; @ 48 River Hill 10/22, v 16 Long Reach 10/29

32 South Carroll (7-0) – 221-63; No games remaining v Top 80

33 Walkersville (5-2) – 179-142; @ 49 Brunswick 10/23, v 27 Middletown 10/29

34 Damascus (5-2) – 150- 79*;  @ Seneca Valley 10/29

35 Mountain Ridge (6-1) – 332-75; No games remaining v Top 80

36 Churchill (6-1) – 151-44; v Richard Montgomery 10/22

37 Harford Tech (6-0) – 220-66*; No games remaining v Top 80

38 New Town (5-2) – 175-87*; v 47 Owings Mills 10/23

39 Havre de Grace (6-1F) – 173-18*; No games remaining v Top 80

40 Largo (6-1) – 219-82; @ 20 Potomac 10/23

— — — — — — — —

41 North Point (4-2) – 139-79*; @ 30 Northern 10/22

42 Rockville (5-2) – 210-142; @ Richard Montgomery 10/29

43 Severna Park (5-2) – 204-84; @ 15 Old Mill 10/29

44 Wicomico (6-1) – 258-132; @ Queen Anne’s 10/22

45 Chesapeake AA (5-2) – 246-105; v Arundel 10/22

46 Suitland (3-3) – 117-104*; v 5 Flowers 10/22

47 Owings Mills (6-1) – 261-107; @ 38 New Town 10/23

48 River Hill (4-3) – 106-62; v 31 Oakland Mills 10/22

49 Brunswick (5-2) – 210-140; v 33 Walkersville 10/22

50 DuVal (4-2) – 127-87*; @ 25 Bowie 10/23, @ 19 Laurel 10/30

— — — — — — — —

Fairmont Heights (5-2) – 207-56; @ 17 Douglass 10/23, v 20 Potomac 10/29

City College (4-1) – 142-52**; v Poly 10/30

Blake (3-4) – 132-97; v Einstein 10/22

St Charles (3-3) – 139-111*; No games remaining v Top 80

Fallston (7-0) – 336-165; No games remaining v Top 80

Kenwood (4-3) – 194-126; v 8 Milford Mill 10/22

Einstein (4-3) – 234-122; @ Blake 10/22

Lackey (6-1) – 174-59; v Leonardtown 10/22, @ 30 Northern 10/29

South River (4-3) – 154-117; v Annapolis 10/29

Queen Anne’s (5-2) – 287-89; v 44 Wicomico 10/22, v 28 Kent Island 10/29

Poly (5-2) – 167-111; v City College 10/30

Bethesda Chevy Chase (5-2) -134-80; v 18 Blair 10/29

Seneca Valley (4-3) – 172-89; @ Walter Johnson 10/22, v Damascus 10/29

Decatur (4-3) – 272-182; No games remaining v Top 80

Westminster (3-4) – 117-129; No games remaining v Top 80

Arundel (5-2) – 174-180; @ 45 Chesapeake 10/22, v Middletown DE 10/29

Walter Johnson (4-3) – 189-230; v Seneca Valley 10/22

Wilde Lake (3-4) – 154-103; No games remaking v Top 80

Richard Montgomery (3-4) – 134-161; @ 36 Churchill 10/22, v 42 Rockville 10/29

Poolesville (4-3) – 168-108; No games remaining v Top 80

North Caroline (3-3) – 180-156; No games remaining v Top 80

Allegany (6-1) – 180-100; @ Northern G 10/22, ‘Homecoming’ v 11 Fort Hill 10/30

Great Mills (5-2) – 104-118; @ 29 Huntingtown 10/22

Northern Garrett (3-4) – 154-147; v Allegany 10/22

Parkville (4-3) – 135-129; @ Perry Hall 10/22, @ 8 Milford Mill 10/28

Hereford (4-3) – 151-114; No games remaining v Top 80

Annapolis (4-2) – 131-117*; @ South River 10/29

Leonardtown (3-3) – 77-85; @ Lackey 10/22

Perry Hall (4-3) – 192-109; v Parkville 10/22, @ 45 Chesapeake 10/30 

Elkton (5-2) – 221-133; v 37 Harford Tech 10/29

MPSSAA Playoff Quarterfinal Projections

4A projected quarterfinalists

1 Quince Orchard 12.4 v 8 Blair 9.0

2 Wise 11.5 v 7 Old Mill 9.1

3 Flowers 10.8 v 6 Paint Branch 10.1

4 Northwest 10.6 v 5 Broadneck 10.3 

Where things could change; This week’s Quince Orchard – Northwest matchup could go either way, and in turn, could flip-flop the 1 and 4 seeds. 

4A Outlook; The projections from pre-season had Wise, Quince Orchard, and Northwest, as the three heavy favorites to vie for the 4A state title. These three remain the top three favorites, but based on this season’s results, both Flowers and Paint Branch must be considered as legitimate contenders, with the Jags coming a two-point conversion away from topping Wise, and the Panthers coming within a score of Quince Orchard, squandering two opportunities to either tie or take the lead late in the fourth quarter.  A Flowers – Paint Branch quarterfinal in the 3 v 6 game would be intriguing, with the two top contenders to the ‘Big 3’ squaring off for a semifinal berth, and a date with either Quince Orchard or Northwest likely looming. The semifinals in this division should produce some good football, no matter the seeds or matchups. 

4A/3A projected quarterfinalists

1 Dundalk 11.1 v 8 Mt Hebron 3.8

2 Sherwood 8.9 v 7 Blake 3.9

3 Mervo 8.7 v 6 Seneca Valley 7.2

4/5 Arundel 7.3 v 5/4 Great Mills 7.3

Where things could change; Anything could change in the regional second round 2 v 3 seed games, which could adjust the re-seeding for the quarterfinal rounds. Arundel would be no ‘gimme’ in the second round with South River, if they battle for a semifinal berth. In the end, the odds are that any change wouldn’t have any affect on the top three favorites still being the top three favorites, and advancing to the second round. 

4A/3A Outlook; The second largest classification of the one-year six classification format leaves a lot to be desired, as two of the regions rank as two of the bottom three of all 24 regions in the six classifications as far as cumulative projected won-loss records go, with the 4A/3A South projected to have an overall 22-50 record, and the 4A/3A West projected to have an even worse 20-51 record. Having said that, Dundalk, Sherwood, and Mervo, look to be the only viable teams to win a state title in this classification. Where the 4A boasts ten teams in this week’s MPSSAA Top 25, the 4A/3A offers just the aforementioned trio among the Top 25. As of now, it looks like Sherwood and Mervo would clash in the semifinal round, with Dundalk likely awaiting in the championship game.

3A 

1 Linganore 11.3 v 8 Manchester Valley 6.2

2 Long Reach 10.7 v 7 City College 7.2

3 Northern 10.4 v 6 Oakdale 7.6

4 Franklin 8.4 v 5 Atholton 7.9

Where things could change; A loss by Long Reach to 6-1 Atholton and/or 6-1 Oakland Mills in the regular season’s final two weeks would likely/assuredly scramble the top four seeds. Damascus will have a decent, if not 50/50 chance of beating Oakdale in the second round, which could, if all other favorites win, pit them against Franklin in the quarterfinal round. City College and Poly could play for the second time in three weeks in the second round, with the latter determining a state quarterfinalist. 

3A Outlook; Last week, it looked (in my eyes) as though it would be Linganore and Franklin battling in the 3A title game, but now, with Northern’s loss to Huntingtown, the top three seeds have shuffled, and it appears (if all seeds hold) that possible matchup may take place between the Lancers and Indians in the semifinal round instead. Long Reach, who last week was projected as a 3 seed, and projected to travel to Linganore for a semifinal game, now is projected to host Northern in that same round. Of course, the Lightning could lose to Atholton and/or Oakland Mills, who are both 6-1, and that could jumble everything. Either way, I’d say the winner of (as of now) the Linganore – Franklin game to be the odds on favorite to win the 3A state title. 

2A

1 Kent Island 10.7 v 8 Oakland Mills 8.2

2 Huntingtown 10.2 v 7 Owings Mills/Glenelg 8.7

3 Milford Mill 9.7 v 6 Glenelg/Owings Mills 8.7

4 Wicomico 9.1 v 5 Douglass PG 8.8

Where things could change; Namely, in the second round, where any changes could affect the re-seeding for the quarterfinal round. A Douglass-Potomac matchup in the second round could go either way, considering it took until the final minute to decide last week’s matchup between the two. Middletown could be a slight favorite in their projected 2 v 3 matchup versus Oakland Mills, and the same goes for New Town and Owings Mills, and Decatur and Wicomico. Even a 1 v 4 second round matchup between Glenelg and Walkersville wouldn’t be a lock for the Gladiators. 

2A Outllook; With so much in flux, it’s impossible to know the 2A quarterfinal matchups, much less the 2A semifinal tilts. Still, Milford Mill should be considered the favorite, with Douglass PG, Huntingtown, Kent Island, Glenelg, and Middletown, headlining the top contenders. 

2A/1A

1 Dunbar 10.5 v 8 Calvert 4.7

2 South Carroll 9.7 v 7 Williamsport 4.8

3 Harford Tech 9.3 v 6 Lackey 5.9

4 Fallston 8.8 v 5 Largo 8.4

Where things could change; It seems, very few places, as Dunbar and Fallston won’t lose either of their last two games, and South Carroll and Harford Tech don’t play anyone ranked among the top 60 teams in the MPSSAA over the next two weeks.

2A/1A Outlook; Dunbar will be the heavy favorite in this classification, but South Carroll, Harford Tech, and Fallston, are all unbeaten, and can’t be taken for granted. Largo could test a high-powered Fallston offense in a quarterfinal matchup. 

1A

1 Fort Hill 10.2 v 8 Forest Park 4.4

2 Mountain Ridge 8.7 v 7 Edmondson 4.5

3 Havre de Grace 7.4  6 Colonel Richardson 4.6

4 Brunswick 4.9 v 8 Perryville 4.7

Where things could change; Many places. Specifically, the 4 through 8 seeds, where five projected quarterfinalists are all within .5 points of one another. 

1A Outlook; Fort Hill, Fort, Fort Hill. It’s hard to imagine any scenario where the Sentinels don’t win the 1A state championship, outside of a ‘anything can happen’ miracle. The Sentinels squashed the projected 2 seed Miners by 30 points, six months after the Miners delivered a loss to ‘Big Red’.

Games Of The Week

#3 Quince Orchard @ #1 Northwest

#4 Paint Branch @ #10’Sherwood

#15 Old Mill @ #9 Broadneck

Others;

#23 Atholton @ #16 Long Reach

#24 Oakdale @ #21 Frederick

#40 Largo @ #20 Potomac

#41 North Point @ #30 Northern

#31 Oakland Mills @ #48 River Hill

#33 Walkersville @ #49 Brunswick

#47 Owings Mills @ #38 New Town

Fairmont Heights @ #17 Douglass PG

Great Mills @ #29 Huntingtown

Richard Montgomery @ #36 Churchill

#44 Wicomico @ Queen Anne’s 

Arundel @ #45 Chesapeake

Einstein @ Blake

Allegany @ Northern Garrett

Leonardtown @ Lackey