As December begins, the Ravens are 7-4 and somehow still in first place. They control their own playoff path, but this game against a struggling Broncos team poses a unique challenge.
There’s no debate Baltimore is more talented. There’s no debate Baltimore is having a better season. There’s no debate Baltimore has better playoff chances. However, Baltimore has given plenty of reason to pause when forecasting how the duration of their season will play out.
Besides cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons, no one on the Broncos gives you the impression they will make a significant impact on Sunday. Prevailing thoughts say the Ravens will roll on this week, but when games are so seemingly lopsided, they don’t always play out that way.
Here are three ways the Ravens can ensure the Broncos don’t pull of the upset this Sunday afternoon.
Don’t beat yourselves
This is self-explanatory. By now, the Ravens know full well they’re capable of competing with any team in the league. The combined winning percentage of their remaining opponents is well below .400. If they go 4-2 the rest of the way, they will have an 11-6 record and at least a division record of 4-2.
In other words, as horrendous as last Sunday ended up, there’s so much to be hopeful for. The Ravens are ranked 2nd in overall DVOA. To win, they don’t need to do anything spectacular. All they need to do is play hard, execute their assignments, and remain focused.
This may be the most lopsided game the Ravens play all year. It has that kind of blowout potential.
Limit yards after contact
The way Baltimore lost wasn’t very surprising, seeing as how Kyle Hamilton—rated the best safety in football—missed last week’s game at Jacksonville. You read that right. Pro Football Focus ranks the rookie safety as the best in his position, with the next closest rookie coming in at No. 15.
This is so important because if the Ravens want to prevent a similar collapse to the ones they’ve seen this season, they’ll be well served to do everything they can to get Hamilton healthy. Marcus Williams may not be ready to return this week, accentuating the need for Hamilton to return all the more.
Safeties are integral to defenses when talking about yards after contact. They’re not usually first to the ball, but, as their job title suggest, good ones are able to really confine opposing receivers and running backs. If Russell Wilson can’t get into quick rhythm throws and has trouble adjusting protections, it’ll be a long day for the Broncos. That said, if the Broncos are able to break through tackles and complete quick passes, they will put an already banged-up Baltimore secondary on its heels—the exact opposite of where defensive backs want to play.
Quick play calls
It’s Week 13! There is NO way teams should continue to struggle with relaying play calls, getting to the line and getting the snap off. No way. Totally inexcusable. Either you’re thinking too much, or you’re not prepared well enough. Either way, you can’t keep beating yourselves. It’s almost like the Ravens should be 11-0, because they beat seven other teams and have beaten themselves four times.
As noted, Denver’s defense (especially now that they’re without stud edge rusher Bradley Chubb) doesn’t intimated people. They’re solid but they’re not on your level. Remind them of that.
You’re at home with a road game at Pittsburgh next week. This game won’t be easy, but it presents a great opportunity to get right. Take it.
Vegas
Baltimore is favored by 8 1/2 points and the over/under is set at 38 1/2. If a spread is greater than a touchdown difference and the point total is under 40, that suggests the favorite should absolutely dominate.
Given the way games have gone recently, I can’t be confident enough to give more than a touchdown, regardless of who the Ravens are playing.
I’ll take the points here, but I do think the Ravens eek one out. I can’t imagine they lose against this team at home with so much at stake.
Prediction: Ravens 19, Broncos 13
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
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