If anyone ever tells you they have the NFL figured out, don’t believe them.
Not only do the Ravens keep you guessing every week, but so does the rest of the league. Especially at this time of year, every achievement and mistake is magnified.
Baltimore did not play well in Cleveland, but the Bengals playing at home dropped a game they could’ve won. The Steelers couldn’t come from behind in Minnesota last Thursday, either. Buffalo had a chance to beat the defending Super Bowl champs on the road, but Breshad Perriman put an end to that in overtime.
Perriman caught Tom Brady’s 700th career touchdown pass to win a crucial December overtime game. You cannot make this stuff up.
Looking forward to this Sunday, the Ravens (8-5, 1-3 AFC North) host the Packers (10-3, 3-1 NFC North). Kickoff is set for 4:25 pm ET on FOX. A lot will depend on Lamar Jackson’s ankle, but as we’ve seen too many times this year, we can’t depend on anyone to be fully healthy.
No way around it: this is a very big game—for both teams. This is a very big game, and it’s one the Ravens can win. They will rightly be underdogs, but here are three ways they can earn a massive victory and put the rest of the league on notice.
Push the pocket from the middle
When things aren’t going well, go back to the basics, and go back to what you do best. For the Ravens defense, that’s pressure the quarterback. We know they can execute any kind of blitz, but with injured personnel all over the place, the effectiveness of certain blitz packages could be compromised.
One unit that has been very good in my opinion has been the interior of the defensive line. That works out well this week, because it will benefit Baltimore to push the pocket from the inside just as much (if not more) than the traditional edge rush.
Keeping Packers quarterback and future Hall of Fame Aaron Rodgers in the pocket, even if he’s hurried, isn’t always effective. He’s hardly phased. His pocket presence is next to Tom Brady’s as the best I’ve ever seen.
At least by collapsing the pocket from the middle, and flushing him out of the pocket, he’s on the run and his receivers will likely have to adjust their routes. To do that, Baltimore will have to align their pass rushers in unusual alignments. That doesn’t mean the pass rush only has to come from interior defensive linemen, but players like Odafe Oweh and Tyus Bowser could line up over the center and rush interior pass lanes. There’s an abundance of alignments and stunts Wink Martindale can and likely will use. Doing so effectively will greatly assist a decimated secondary.
Watch the ball
Rodgers’ hard count is the best in football. Giving him and the Packers offense an extra five yards, likely on key 3rd downs, is simply not an option if the Ravens want to win this game. Baltimore can’t do much against perfect passes, and Rodgers will make some of those, but they cannot get sucked into the mind games and just give yards away.
Some hope is found in Green Bay’s last game against Chicago. On the season, the Packers give up a sack on 5.45 percent of their pass attempts. Last night, they gave up a sack on 7.50 percent of their pass attempts. The Bears sacked Rodgers three times. If the Ravens can duplicate that kind of production, to go along with a delay of game call (or two) aided by the home crowd, the defense should be in good position to make some big-time plays.
Shorten the game
An effective way to combat a potent offense is to run a ball control offense. Try to maximize plays and time of possession. Doing so will wear out the opposing defense and keep the opposing offense off the field for longer than they’re used to.
It’s not an original concept, nor an unfamiliar one to Green Bay, but if Baltimore can continue their time of possession dominance, they will have a good chance to win this game.
On the year, the Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in time of possession, holding the ball for 55.69 percent of game time. However, the Packers are right behind them in 2nd place, as they’re on offense for 54.48 percent of game time.
Shortening the game also applies to the mental aspect of things. Don’t think you have to win the game on one play or one drive. Do what you’re best at. Don’t try to make up for mistakes made in previous games. Understand this is a new game that presents to you a golden opportunity to beat a great team. Your crowd will be behind you. You have the best kicker of all-time as well. Stay focused and execute your game plan.
Vegas
The opening line of this game favors Green Bay (-2), and the point total is set at 46. Given all the injuries and how both teams came alive in the 2nd half of their games last week, I think the total goes over, but for, it’s hard to envision a Ravens win (straight up or against the spread). I desperately hope I’m wrong.
Prediction: Packers 31, Ravens 20
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.