Victory Monday!
Finally, after establishing a double-digit lead on Sunday, the Ravens held on to beat the Browns, 23-20. They move to 4-3 on the year, and more importantly, 2-0 in the division.
Baltimore is getting some key players back healthy, namely Ronnie Stanley, Gus Edwards, Justin Houston, and Rashod Bateman. They’re also cutting down on mistakes they had been making earlier in the season.
In just three days’ time, though, they’re back in action on Thursday night against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay looks slow, disorganized, and flat. I think this game will present the Ravens an opportunity to clean up some of their recurring mistakes and put together a comprehensive victory.
Here’s three ways they can get that done.
Give Gus the Ball
How good was it to see Gus Edwards back on the field yesterday (and playing well, too)? He looked sharp and confident. Especially after losing J.K. Dobbins for a few weeks and a getting a down performance from Kenyan Drake, Edwards’ return came just in time.
Going forward, it seems only right to ride the hot hand. Tampa Bay got gashed for 181 yards on 24 carries by Panthers running back duo D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Tampa Bay allowing an average of 7.5 yards per carry to those two backs when they had to know running was going to be the focus of Carolina’s offense is flat out embarrassing.
Baltimore boasts better offensive personnel—all around—than Carolina, so if Carolina did what they did to Tampa Bay, you’d think Edwards will be in line for another big game this Thursday night. I can see Edwards rushing 18 times for 110 yards and a touchdown in this game.
Pass to Proche and Duvernay
Rashod Bateman has struggled this year, and Mark Andrews doesn’t seem to be 100 percent. While Edwards and Lamar Jackson are very effective running the ball, the Ravens need to establish some semblance of passing offense.
Fortunately for them, Devin Duvernay is on a roll. Any time he touches the ball, he’s as big a deep threat as there is. On his one punt return yesterday, Duvernay gained 46 yards. He also averaged 21 yards per reception.
We know what James Proche is capable of, too, and quite frankly, I’d like to see him get the ball a handful of times against the Buccaneers. If he doesn’t produce, then you can move on with clarity, but when facing this defense, speed is an asset that should be emphasized.
Another big reason these two could have key roles on Thursday is because Tampa Bay’s pass rush is very good. The two best ways to beat a pass rush are to run straight at their top player or throw quick, lateral passes. Getting the ball in the hands of Proche and Duvernay accomplishes a few things: it subdues Tampa’s pass rush, protects Jackson from taking hits, and allows those two players to use their elite speed to gain yards after the catch.
Maintain special teams prowess
The Ravens are the best special teams unit in football, as ranked by Football Outsiders and by the eye test. They score, return, and cover better than anyone. Even if the Ravens have to punt a few times in this game, that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Rookie punter Jordan Stout is really coming on and should be able to pin Tom Brady and his offense deep, which in turn would afford Mike Macdonald more flexibility in his play calling.
No longer does Brady intimidate others. Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Rob Gronkowski aren’t walking through that door. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are good players, but even they are struggling to produce they way they’re used to.
As noted above, this game will give Baltimore opportunities to make plays in all three phases and assemble a complete team victory.
Vegas
On Sunday evening, this line opened at -3.5 in favor of Tampa Bay. As of Monday morning, the line moved all the way to -1.5 in favor of Baltimore. In less than 24 hours, the money was coming in on the Ravens, and rightfully so. The point total, too, moved considerably from 49 to 44.5. The Ravens win wasn’t pretty, but it was a gritty win against a strong divisional foe. Conversely, the Buccaneers laid an egg on the road to a divisional opponent they were heavily favored to beat.
While there’s one game difference between these teams in the win/loss column, they are headed in different directions. Baltimore, despite key injuries, has weathered the storm and is playing more organized defense. Tampa Bay, though, seems rudderless and in possession of more questions than answers.
Baltimore is 2-1 on the road with a point differential of +20. Tampa Bay is 1-2 at home with a point differential of -6. This should be a close one, but I think the Ravens have enough in the tank to get past the Buccaneers.
Prediction: Ravens 26, Buccaneers 19 (BAL -1.5, over 44.5)
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
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