It’s Steelers week.
Let’s waste no time and look at how the Ravens can leave Heinz Field with a victory this Sunday.
Dominate 1st downs
The Ravens have put themselves behind the 8-ball over the last two weeks, especially on first downs. Baltimore had 32 1st down plays in both of their games against the Bears and Browns. At Chicago, their average yards gained on 1st down was 3.8. Against Cleveland, that number dropped to 3.3 yards per 1st down.
Gaining 3 ½ yards on first down puts you at 2nd and 6 (or 7), obviously. But given this opponent and this atmosphere, not to mention the kicking conditions that are sure to be adverse, getting behind schedule, as they say, is not an option.
Scheme and personnel aren’t the issue. The Ravens are 1st in the NFL in rushing attempts per game and 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game. I could be wrong, but it seems like the Ravens have played with less urgency on 1st downs in their last two games.
Pittsburgh and Cleveland’s quarterbacks are similar, in my opinion. And as we saw on Sunday night, given Baltimore’s ever-improving pass rush, it doesn’t take that much to force the opposition into hurried and inaccurate throws. But to do that, Baltimore must first establish dominance on 1st downs.
Play a lot of nickel
Most of the NFL plays nickel defense on most of their defensive snaps (nickel referring to five defensive backs as opposed to the traditional four). It’s not an adjustment for the Ravens to come out in nickel on Sunday, as they’ve been at the forefront of that movement since Wink Martindale became Baltimore’s defensive coordinator in 2018.
In 2019, the Ravens played base defense on 9 percent of their plays–the first team to play base defense on fewer than 10 percent of their plays since Football Outsiders began tracking such data. According to Football Outsiders, teams in 2020 played nickel defense on 59.7 percent of snaps—a 3.8 percent increase from 2019.
Not surprisingly, the Ravens are ahead of the curve here. The reason they ought to lean into this trend and play a lot of nickel personnel this week is because of what the Steelers do offensively. Though Ben Roethlisberger is markedly less mobile than he used to be, his downfield accuracy is still good. The Steelers have thrown the 4th fewest interceptions (7) among teams that have attempted at least 400 passes. Moreover, Roethlisberger’s reads and release time have been much quicker than normal. To counter that, Baltimore will need quick-footed defenders on the field.
Additionally, the Steelers could be down their top two tight ends with Eric Ebron out (IR—knee) and Pat Freiermuth sustaining a concussion at the end of last week’s game against the Bengals. Less tight ends likely means more wide receivers.
Disrupt passing lanes
The best way to combat quick passes is to disrupt passing lanes. Just because your pass rush might not get to the quarterback doesn’t mean it can’t affect the passing game.
Front players must get their hands up at the line of scrimmage, especially when down and distance dictates the offense throwing quick, lateral passes. Coverage players must and stay active as Roethlisberger is famous for scrambling, which causes his receivers to re-route and occupy parts of the field that they didn’t originally intend to. In other words, while Pittsburgh is “down” this year, they still possess more than enough to beat the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore will prepare accordingly.
Vegas
According to oddsmakers, the Ravens are 3 ½-point favorites in this game and the over/under is set at 43 ½. Jackson won his only start at Pittsburgh (2019), 26-23. In that game, the total yards were 277-269 in favor of Baltimore. The Steelers sacked Lamar five times. Baltimore had the ball for 39:00, but turned the ball over three times.
Expect more of the same Sunday, with the Ravens having a run-heavy offensive gameplan. They’ll face a very determined Steelers pass rush that’s tied for 3rd in the league in sacks per game. It figures to be a close game in which the Ravens should have an opportunity to pull away. Will they capitalize on their opponents’ mistakes? That’s the question.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Steelers 20
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
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