Although it was nice to have seven games to watch this past weekend—instead of the usual four—the games ended up being, shall we say, less than competitive.
Six of the seven home teams won last weekend and did so by an average score of 14.7 points. The only road team that scored 20 or more points was the Steelers (21).
This weekend, the top seeds back in action and coming off bye weeks. Derrick Henry is back for the Titans, Aaron Rodgers is ready to go for the Packers, while former Super Bowl MVPs Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes host the two most dominant teams from last week in the Rams and Bills, respectively.
From a betting standpoint, wild card weekend favorites were 6-1 against the spread and the under hit in five of the seven games. That’s to be expected, I suppose, as teams that would usually compete for a bye week were hosting teams that would usually be competing for a playoff spot.
This weekend, the games should be much more compelling as trips to the conference championship are on the line. In the AFC, three of the four starting quarterbacks haven’t been that far, while three of the four starting quarterbacks in the NFC have.
The one good thing about the Ravens being at home during these games is that we don’t need to worry. We did enough of that this past season. This weekend, Ravens fans can just watch and enjoy.
SATURDAY 1/22
Bengals (10-7) at Titans (12-5), 4:30 pm on CBS
Odds: Tennessee -3.5
Total: 47.5
Analysis: Both teams are complete. They play incredibly hard, have stud running backs and elite wide receivers. Each team also has a player who’s racked up at least a dozen sacks on the year. Derrick Henry is back for Tennessee, but Joe Burrow has been on fire for Cincinnati. Tennessee allows less than 85 rushing yards per game on defense, but the Bengals may be okay with that as Burrow and company can light up any defense in the league.
I think this game comes down to Ryan Tannehill. It’s safe to say Burrow, Henry, Ja’Marr Chase, and A.J. Brown will all make plays. How Ryan Tannehill handles key conversion attempts and red zone possessions will determine who wins this game. He’s made those plays before, but not consistently.
Tennessee and Cincinnati rank 26th and 30th respectively in sacks allowed. The difference, though, is that Burrow was still able to rank 6th in passing yards and 1st in yards per attempt. Tannehill ranks 16th and 18th in those categories, respectively.
Pick: Bengals 24, Titans 20 (CIN +3.5, under 47.5)
49ers (10-7) at Packers (13-4), 8:15 pm on FOX
Odds: Green Bay -5.5
Total: 47.5
Analysis: There may not be a tougher team in the league right now than the 49ers. However, there may not be a better player in the league right now than Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
It’s going to be fascinating to watch Nick Bosa chasing Aaron Rodgers all day. And if you think the Packers can just throw the ball to their stud receiving core to elude San Francisco’s pass rush, look what the Niners just did to the Cowboys passing attack (55 percent completion, 6.1 yards per attempt).
Usually, I’d give the edge to the 49ers as their running and subsequent play action game is so effective. However, the Packers’ play calls are just as explosive. Keep an eye on A.J. Dillon to gain a lot of yards after contact, especially when the game gets late.
Bottom line: I can’t bet against Aaron Rodgers, at least not right now. He’s led Green Bay to wins in four of the last five postseason games at Lambeau Field, with the one loss coming last year by five points to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers.
Pick: Packers 28, 49ers 23 (San Francisco +5.5, over 47.5)
SUNDAY, 1/23
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Buccaneers (13-4), 3:00 pm on NBC
Odds: Tampa Bay -3
Total: 48.5
Analysis: Like the Packers game, the home team here is favored for good reason, but the road team is tough as nails and plenty capable of winning. However, like with Aaron Rodgers, I just can’t bet against Tom Brady, especially in the postseason.
The matchup of the game, in my opinion, will be Tampa Bay center Ryan Jensen against Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald. What a brawl that will be.
This seems like it’ll be a close game on the surface, but I think Tampa turns the screws to LA late and pulls away to a double-digit victory.
Pick: Tampa Bay 31, Los Angeles 20 (Tampa Bay -3, over 48.5)
Bills (11-6) at Chiefs (12-5), 6:30 pm on CBS
Odds: Kansas City -2.5
Total: 55
Analysis: The winner of this game could very well win the Super Bowl. Both teams have overcome in-season struggles to hit their stride at the perfect time. These two teams scored more points than any other in the wild card round.
Perhaps no other quarterbacks have stronger arms than the two featured in this game: Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are home and they’ve been to the mountaintop, but the Bills are coming off a demolition of the best franchise we’ve seen in a quarter century.
I could look at stats and trends, but quite frankly, something feels right about the Bills. They have the best defense in the league, Sean McDermott is as good as any coach in the league, and Josh Allen is playing like Joe Burrow and Cam Newton combined.
The Chiefs scored a lot of points last weekend, but if we’re being honest, the Steelers lack of keeping up was due more to self-inflicted mistakes than Kansas City’s defense. Buffalo won’t give them that chance.
This will be a great game to conclude the divisional weekend, and it should come down to the wire.
Pick: Buffalo 24, Kansas City 23 (BUF +2.5, under 55)
Who gets your pick this weekend? Let us know at the board here!
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
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