NFL Playoff, Award Predictions

We’re four months away from the start of the NFL season. Camp isn’t quite around the corner, but it’ll be here before we know it.

With the start of training camp comes the start of prediction season. There are a handful of teams who have a real shot to win the Super Bowl. There’s another group below that that are good enough to make the playoffs but will be challenged to progress far in the postseason. While it’s true that anything can happen once a team is “in the dance,” the reality is most of the time, the heavy hitters with veteran quarterbacks are the ones with the best shot.

This year is the second year of a 17-game schedule and a 7-team (per conference) playoff format, which means there only one team per conference who receives a bye week. That’s crucial, especially after an extended season.

Given recent success and personnel upgrades, here are my playoff predictions for the upcoming NFL season.

AFC Playoffs

1. Bills
2. Chargers
3. Ravens
4. Colts
5. Dolphins
6. Bengals
7. Patriots

Buffalo is the strongest team on paper. They have the leading MVP candidate, playmakers on offense, and a complete, ferocious defense. They’re also led by a stellar head coach. Furthermore, they play in an AFC East that, while I’ve predicted it to send three teams to the playoffs, has been a weak division as of late.

The Chargers are right there as well. They do a lot well and are only getting better. The addition of Khalil Mack is a scary proposition for other teams, and Justin Herbert continues to ascend toward elite status.

Baltimore, when healthy, can beat anyone in football. While their stars all look to be healthy, the sheer volume of key players returning from injury lends some doubt as to how far they can progress in the playoffs.

Indianapolis is a formidable team all-around and have finally been stabilized at the quarterback position with the signing of Matt Ryan. They’re my pick to win the AFC South, which gives them at least one home playoff game. Matt Ryan with that running game is not going to be easy to defend for any team that has to face them in the postseason.

Miami added Mike McDaniel as their new head coach, as well as Tyreek Hill to be their new No. 1 wide receiver. Just imagine what that offense will look like, combining those additions with Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Chase Edmonds, and Terron Armstead. Miami is no longer a pushover. Underestimate them at your own risk.

Cincinnati as a 6-seed is understandably low in many people’s estimation. However, returning to the Super Bowl is so challenging the following year. You can’t sneak up on anyone or hide deficiencies like you could the year prior. In other words, Joe Burrow will need to be even better this year than he was last year for the Bengals to vie for the Super Bowl, which is asking an awful lot of him, as he was exceptional in 2021.

New England is a team that’s tricky to figure out. They’re going to be competitive. They may not have a spectacular offense, but their running game is very physical, and they drafted Baylor track star Tyquan Thornton at wide receiver to add much needed speed to that side of the ball. If you’re a fan of play action passing, tune into the Patriots this year.

Wild Card Round

Patriots at Chargers (W)

Bengals at Ravens (W)

Dolphins (W) at Colts

Divisional Round

Dolphins at Bills (W)

Ravens (W) at Chargers

Championship

Ravens at Bills (W)

NFC Playoffs

1. Buccaneers
2. Rams
3. Cowboys
4. Packers
5. Eagles
6. Cardinals
7. 49ers

Call me crazy, but I can’t bet against Tom Brady. The Buccaneers fixed some parts of their roster that needing fixing and play in a poor division, which is now without Brees, Ryan, or Newton. I could very well see a 4th MVP award coming his way.

The Rams, I think, will make a serious push for a 2nd straight Super Bowl title, but won’t have quite enough to make it happen. If Odell Beckham, Jr. returns healthy to the team, that would obviously help their cause. But even if he does return, it’s not a given they pick up where the left off in Los Angeles in February. They front-loaded their team to win a Super Bowl, but now that they’ve won one, they’ll be fighting against the current to repeat.

Dallas, as always, is talented but questionable. Not much needs to be said about them. I don’t think losing Amari Cooper to Cleveland will hinder them too much, but it will be a challenge. Philadelphia will come strong, especially along the defensive front, which will put all the more onus on Dak Prescott. I think he can manage the pressure, but can the rest of his teammates?

Green Bay loses Davante Adams but gained Christian Watson. They have an excellent 1-2 punch at running back and of course Aaron Rodgers still in great form. Defensively they drafted a couple of studs from Georgia’s championship-winning defense (LB Quay Walker, DT Devonte Wyatt) and can rest easy knowing Adrian Amos is holding down the back end. They know who they are and remain a championship contender.

As for the Eagles, I see their ceiling as the divisional round, but they proved mental toughness to me last year, and that was before adding Jordan Davis, Nakobe Dean, and James Bradberry to their defense. They remind of those early Marvin Lewis-led Bengals teams; a tough, scrappy defense combined with a solid offense that’s led by a good but limited quarterback, playing in a tough, but winnable division.

The Cardinals added Marquise Brown to compensate for the departure of Christian Kirk, but I still don’t think they’re an automatic lock for the postseason. I think they make it because their talent on both sides of the ball is undeniable, but I see too many inconsistencies. In addition to Kirk, they lost Chandler Jones (Las Vegas) and Chase Edmonds (Miami) in free agency. That slim margin of error in such a tough division makes me think while they should get to the playoffs, they aren’t likely to advance.

San Francisco being the 7th of the NFC playoff teams intrigues me because of Trey Lance’s potential. There’s uncertainty around Jimmy Garoppolo and Deebo Samuel and whether or not they’ll be 49ers in 2022. They are now, but even if they depart, I think Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch’s experience has created a strong enough infrastructure to withstand the adversity they’ll face this year.

Wild Card Round

49ers at Rams (W)

Cardinals (W) at Cowboys

Eagles at Packers (W)

Divisional Round

Cardinals at Buccaneers (W)

Packers (W) at Rams

Championship

Packers at Buccaneers (W)

SUPER BOWL LVII

Bills (+700) vs. Buccaneers (+800)

Award winners

MVP: Tom Brady (+900)
Vegas: Josh Allen (+700)

Offensive Player of the Year: Justin Herbert

Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett

Coach of the Year: Brandon Staley

Comeback Player of the Year: Chase Young

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Christian Watson

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Derek Stingley, Jr.

As stated, as long as Tom Brady is playing competitive football, he’s a serious MVP candidate. Myles Garrett is going to be in prime position to notch 20+ sacks, which is always a fast track towards a major award. Brandon Staley has the Chargers rolling and now has the benefit of an excellent off-season. Chase Young is similar to Myles Garrett, which tells you all you need to know. Christian Watson is a faster Mike Evans (who also returns kicks), and Derek Stingley, Jr. is one of the best overall prospects I’ve seen since I began studying the draft in 2010.

All those guys are in good shape to win multiple accolades this season and help their teams win a lot of games. However it shakes out, I can’t wait to watch.