NFL: State Of The AFC With 5 Weeks Remaining

The Pittsburgh Steelers won yet another game in Week 12, beating the Ravens on a Wednesday afternoon to cap off one of the strangest weeks of a season that has been one of the strangest in NFL history. The Steelers, at 11-0, are the only undefeated team in the league. But they’re probably not the best team in the AFC, and there are least three other squads ahead of them that I would consider favorites to win the Super Bowl.

With only five weeks left in the regular season, let’s take a look at the AFC playoff picture and try to figure out which squads are in the best position to make the postseason and then make a run to the Super Bowl. We’ll also answer a few questions and try to determine who would be deserving of conference awards.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

First, here’s how the playoff seedings stand before the NFL heads into Week 13. The first seed is hugely important this season because it’s the only team in the conference that will get a first-round playoff bye. That’s one reason why Pittsburgh’s victory vs. Baltimore on Wednesday was yet another important step on its playoff journey. Staying at least one game ahead of Kansas City is imperative to grab that top seed.

Playoff standings

1.Steelers (11-0)

2. Chiefs (10-1)

3. Titans (8-3)

4. Bills (8-3)

5. Browns (8-3)

6. Dolphins (7-4)

7. Colts (7-4)

Still in the hunt

Ravens (6-5), Raiders (6-5), Patriots (5-6), Broncos (4-7), Texans (4-7)

The biggest remaining games left on the schedule

Steelers at Bills (Week 14): The two teams that have the best chance of making Pittsburgh stumble en route to a No. 1 seed (and a potential undefeated season) are Buffalo and then Indianapolis in Week 16. Making matters a little more difficult for the Bills is the fact they play in San Francisco on Monday night in Week 13 and then have to travel back across the country to play Pittsburgh at home six days later. That will be a tough stretch.

Ravens at Browns (Week 14): Coming off a tough loss to the Steelers on Wednesdasy, COVID-ravaged Baltimore should be closer to full strength for this important AFC North game. The Ravens savaged Cleveland 38-6 in their season opener, but for most of the season, the Browns have played solidly. They’re kind of a hidden gem because Pittsburgh is still undefeated and Kansas City is still dominant and Buffalo is on the verge of having its best season in 21 years. Plus, the Browns are below average in both offense AND defense. But the team is well coached and, well, Cleveland just kind of keeps on winning. For the Ravens to have a shot at the playoffs, this game is a must-win.

Chiefs at Saints (Week 15): As long as New Orleans keeps on winning, this will be a battle between two teams jockeying for their respective conference’s No. 1 seeds. If New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is still out because of his rib injury, Taysom Hill could have a tough time keeping up with Patrick Mahomes and the league’s No. 1 offense. Even if Brees can will his body to take the field, he could be rusty and ineffective. Advantage: Kansas City.

Patriots at Dolphins (Week 15): Even before Miami was good and New England was uncharacteristically subpar, the Dolphins dominated the Patriots at home, winning two of their last three and five of their last seven when Bill Belichick travels to south Florida. Miami is in position to win its first division title since 2008. The Dolphins will be an underdog to Kansas City in Week 14, so the game the next week vs. New England might be ultra-important in the race for the AFC East title that probably won’t include the Patriots.

Titans at Packers (Week 16): Coming off its dominant victory last week against Indianapolis, I could see Tennessee beating any team in the league. The Colts are only one game back of the Titans in the AFC South, but check out three of the five remaining opponents on Tennessee’s schedule: Jacksonville, Detroit and Houston. Those are almost gimme-type games. Green Bay, on the other hand, will be dangerous for Tennessee, especially since Wisconsin will be cold on Dec. 27. Luckily for the Titans, there’s always the Derrick Henry factor (we’ll explain further below).

Which teams are the most dangerous of making a deep playoff run?

The Chiefs are my Super Bowl favorite. The Steelers obviously continue to win, but their offense can struggle and if Ben Roethlisberger sustains another hobbling injury (something that appears possible every single time he takes the field), Pittsburgh’s chances will plummet.

But opponents also might want to avoid the Titans. In 2019, Henry showed how much more difficult he is to stop during the playoffs. Last year, Henry led the NFL by averaging a league-high 102.7 yards per game on top of 20.2 carries per contest in the regular season. During Tennessee’s three-game run in the 2019 postseason, Henry averaged 148.7 yards per game on 28.7 carries. As the weather gets colder, Henry heats up. The Titans aren’t as consistent as you’d like to see —that loss to the Bengals in Week 8 was particularly brutal—but when they’re clicking, they’re as good as anybody.

Which quarterback should the Dolphins play?

I still don’t understand why Miami coach Brian Flores wants to send quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick back to the bench. But again, even after Fitzpatrick helped the Dolphins to yet another victory last Sunday vs. the Jets, Flores said Tua Tagovailoa would be the starter when he was healthy. Fitzpatrick isn’t always great, but Miami’s offense is more dynamic when he’s under center. Tagovailoa is obviously the quarterback of the future. But Fitzpatrick is the quarterback who could lead Miami to a deep playoff run.

Who would win the conference awards?

As of this moment, here’s who should win the AFC hardware.

AFC MVP: Patrick Mahomes: This seems like the obvious choice, but who else could possibly win it? Not anybody but the guy who leads the league with 3,497 passing yards to go with 30 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

AFC Rookie of the Year: Joe Burrow: Forget the fact he’ll miss the last six games of the season with that devastating knee injury. The Bengals quarterback was awesome in 2020 and has given Cincinnati its first quarterback to truly be excited about since Carson Palmer. 

AFC Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett: Despite missing time while on the coronavirus reserve list, Garrett has been stupendous this year for the Browns, recording 9.5 sacks and a league-high four forced fumbles. He’s an absolute gamechanger.

AFC Coach of the Year: Kevin Stefanski: I think all bets are off if the Steelers go 16-0. You have to give it to Mike Tomlin at that point. But if the Steelers go, say, 15-1 or 14-2 and the Browns finish, say, 11-5 and make their first postseason since 2002, Stefanski deserves to win it.