NFL Week 1: Best Bets

The 2025 NFL Season is off to a hot start already, with a wild game between the Cowboys and Eagles on Thursday night (Eagles 24 – Cowboys 20) followed by a rare upset of the Chiefs on Friday night in Brazil (Chargers 27 – Chiefs 21).

Both of these games were a tough start for the betting public, with 59% of bets placed on the Eagles to cover the spread (-8.5) and 63% of the bets placed on the Chiefs to cover their spread of 3 points over the Chargers. The Eagles’ studs, namely Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown, also disappointed in the game, with Saquon Barkley finishing 30 yards below his projected rushing line and AJ Brown finishing with a whopping 61 yards below his projected receiving line.

But Sunday is when the 2025 NFL season really gets underway, with a full slate of games to look forward to. We’ve been waiting for this for months, so let’s get right into my favorite bets of Week 1.

(Note: Lines and odds are subject to change)

1. Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos

Pick: Denver Broncos -8 (-110 Fanatics)

Yes, I know 8 points is a large spread. In fact, it’s the largest of the Week. But to me this matchup doesn’t need to be overcomplicated – this is a rookie quarterback in Cam Ward going on the road against a Top 5 defense in the NFL.

The Broncos ranked as the 4th best defense overall, the 5th best pass rush, and 7th best coverage defense in 2024 according to Pro Football Focus, and comes into the 2025 season ranked as the #1 secondary in the NFL (Sharp Football Analysis).

Meanwhile, the Titans finished last season with the 7th worst ranked pass blocking offensive line and 9th worst receiving core (PFF). While not much was done over the off-season to revamp the receiving core, the Titans did at least make some improvements to the offensive line, adding veteran LT Dan Moore Jr and RG Kevin Zeitler to help protect Cam Ward.

Since 2015, rookie quarterbacks are 4-12-1 straight up in Week 1, and 7-9-1 against the spread, and in very few of those instances were those quarterbacks going up against a defense as stout as that of the Denver Broncos.

Both the public and the sharps lean heavily on this side too, with 75% of the bets and 97% of the money coming in on the Broncos to cover the spread.

Give me the Broncos -8 at home.

2. Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Over 46.5 Points (-110 DraftKings)

Two of the worst teams from last season, both with high hopes for 2025 after adding some big pieces to their offenses, face off in what I think could be a sneaky-fun Week 1 matchup. With the key additions of WR/CB Travis Hunter (2nd pick to the Jaguars) and WR Tet McMillan (8th pick to the Panthers), these teams have more potential star power at WR than they’ve had in recent memory.

While it remains to be seen exactly how Travis Hunter’s role will be defined given his ability to play on both sides of the ball, if the depth chart is any indication, the Jaguars are viewing Hunter as a WR first and a CB second.

The Jaguars are also getting their starting QB Trevor Lawrence back, after his 2024 was cut short due to injury. The Panthers and Bryce Young are hoping to build off of a strong ending to 2024 where they finished 7-2 ATS while averaging over 24 points-per-game over their final 9 games.

So, why Over 46.5? These defenses both leave a lot to be desired.

Coming into the 2025 season, the Panthers and Jaguars secondaries are tied for 30th-ranked according to Sharp Football Analytics. And let’s not forget, the Carolina Panthers did just set the NFL record for most points given up in a season last year, allowing a whopping 534 points.

Put simply, I don’t believe either of these teams did enough over the off-season to stop what should be improved offenses for both teams.

I’ll take the Over 46.5 points.

3. Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Pick 1 : David Njoku O47.5 Rec Yards: (-110 FanDuel)

Pick 2: Ja’Marr Chase O80.5 Rec Yards: (-117 BetRivers) and/or Ja’Marr Chase O6.5 Receptions (-118 FanDuel)

Bonus: David Njoku Anytime TD Scorer (+260 on Fanatics)

Pick 1: David Njoku O47.5 Rec Yards (-110 FanDuel) If this clip isn’t evidence enough that Joe Flacco winning the starting QB job for the Browns isn’t exactly what David Njoku was hoping for, I don’t know what is.

In all seriousness, in the limited sample size we have of Flacco and Njoku playing together, their connection has been elite. In the 5 games with these two together, Njoku has averaged 78 yards receiving per game and has scored 4 TDs (across 3 games).

If that’s not enough, let’s also look at the Bengals defense on the other side of the ball. The Bengals gave up the most fantasy points per game to TE in the NFL (10.1) and trailed only the

Panthers with the number of TDs allowed to the position (10 to the Panthers’ 11). The Bengals gave up an average of 65.5 receiving yards per game to the position in 2024, again good for worst in the league.

This game feels like one where the Browns will need to throw the ball a lot to keep up with Cincinnati’s potent offense, and Njoku should be Flacco’s safest target to do just that.

The 47.5 Receiving Yards line feels way too low and Njoku’s +260 odds for ‘Anytime TD’ also feels mispriced here.

Pick 2: Ja’Marr Chase O80.5 Rec Yards: (-117 BetRivers) and/or Ja’Marr Chase O6.5 Receptions (-118 FanDuel)

This might be a chalk pick, but there’s a reason for it. Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving line simply should not be this low. Chase has hit the Over 80.5 receiving yards numbers in 7 of his last 10 games and has hit the Over 6.5 Receptions in 8 of his last 10 games, with his 2 misses being 6 catches each.

As I mentioned for Njoku, I’m expecting some back and forth scoring in this game, and with the Browns’ somewhat murky running back situation I wouldn’t be surprised if Browns’ head coach Kevin Stefanski lets Flacco air it out a bit. With the Bengals doing very little over the offseason besides re-signing Trey Hendrickson to bolster what was a poor defense in 2024, I’m expecting Flacco to have some success. Given this, Burrow will need to respond, and what better way to do so than to feed the best WR in the NFL.

I’ll take either of Chase’s Overs on yards or receptions here.

4. Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Pick: Stefon Diggs O4.5 Receptions (-103 DraftKings)

Stefon Diggs is a tricky player in 2025. Once a top-tier receiver, Diggs’ usage has dropped as he has aged, and he is coming off of a season-ending ACL injury.

With that being said, I think Diggs can easily have a 5+ catch game here. The Patriots and Drake Maye are in desperate need of a wide receiver stepping up as their WR1 and Diggs is the most likely candidate to do that.

Diggs has hit his receptions over in 7 of his last 8 games (with Houston) and that was while competing with significantly better WRs for targets. The Raiders also had the worst coverage grade in the NFL in 2024 according to PFF, and after doing very little to improve their secondary in the off-season, come in as the worst-ranked secondary in the NFL yet again (Sharp Football Analysis).

The Drake Maye hype is real, and for him to really take the next step as a quarterback in this league, Diggs will need to play a big part.

Honorable Mentions:

1. Derrick Henry Over 82.5 Rush Yards vs Buffalo Bills (-114 FanDuel)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: Under 38 Total Points (-110 BetMGM)

3. Michael Penix Under 21.5 Completions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-120 Fanatics)

4. Mark Andrews Anytime TD Scorer (+170 FanDuel)

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