Not that far away

The 2009 Orioles are currently 13-19, meaning there are 130 games left in the 2009 season… with that in-mind, many people are unwilling tolook ahead.

The O’s last finished over 500 in the 1997 season, and damaged theirreputation with the fan-base by telling the public many times during 1998 – 2007 that they were ‘rebuilding’, and that better times were onlya year or two around the corner.

The reality is that the Orioles never actually went through a rebuilding during that time-period… never focused on Scouting, and PlayerDevelopment… they pieced together a team year after year using band-aids to fix broken-legs.

The great majority of the Orioles fan-base has been burned too often, and need to be shown results before they come-back and fully commit to the team. That is all understandable, but the O’s do have a chance to compete in 2010, and should compete in 2011.

This is not the boy that called wolf; there are discernable differencesof where the organization is now, vs where the organization was during the 1998 – 2007 period. Still, to have a chance to compete in 2010, and to definitively compete in 2011… A number of issues have to be addressed between now and the start of the 2010 season.

When Matt Wieters ascends to the Majors in early-June the O’s are going to have long-term answers in place at CF, RF, 2nd, and Catcher. With Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott… the O’s have potential long-term answers in LF, and DH.

In the linked blog entry below, I concentrated on the issues existing at the 1st, 3rd, and SS positions for 2010: http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/05/questions-that-surround-2010-os-infield.html

Having previously discussed the 2010 infield, lets spend some-time discussing the multitude of different possibilities that exist with the pitching-staff.

We all understand how weak the current rotation is. That good news is that as this season progresses, we can start to see a real transformation.

In 2007 Rich Hill pitched 195 innings, allowing 170 hits, with 183 k’s for the Cubs.

Hill can be expected to join the O’s at any-time. This is 2009, not 2007… and this is the American League East, and not the National League Central…you can expect Hill to through an adjustment, and you are going to have to watch his control… but the O’s should be an improved team with Rich Hill in the rotation.

Brad Bergesen has already made his way to the bigs. I think in his 4 Major League starts, he has looked very similar to the pitcher he was billed as. He works quick, he throws strikes, and he pitches to contact.

Overall, his pure stuff is a bit better than the fringe label he is often tabbed with. In 3 of his 4 starts, he has gone at least 5.2 innings, and allowed 3 er or less. There are going to be times when he gets knocked around a bit… that will happen without superior stuff, when you are consistently around the plate. I still think he projects better as a long-man, similar to the role that Brian Bass currently has…. But Bergesen is acquitting himself as a potential true 5th starter.

I have blogged about Troy Patton many times, most recently in the link below. http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/05/troy-patton.html

When Hill is called-up to the O’s, Patton figures to replace Hill in the AAA Norfolk rotation. If Patton has solid results there over 3-4 starts, and the reports of his velocity and movement remain consistent… Patton should be in position to join the O’s by mid-June. If the Orioles want to see Patton get Major League innings in 2009, those innings should happen in June and July, when his arm is still fresh vs looking at him in August and September when he figures to be fatigued.

As stated, by mid-June I am envisioning an Orioles rotation of Guthrie,Uehara, Hill, Bergesen, and Patton. That is a rotation I believe can be competitive during June – September 2009… but more importantly, I believe that rotation and the entire staff can be improved on prior to the 2010 season.

How else can the staff be improved? You could improve the staff by adding David Hernandez to the bullpen.

In 2006, with Delmarva in the Sally League, Hernandez had 149 k’s, 120 hits allowed, and 69 walks in 140 innings.

In 2007, with Frederick in the Carolina League, Hernandez had 168 k’s,139 hits allowed, and 47 walks in 145.1 innings.

In 2008, with Bowie in the Eastern League, Hernandez had 166 k’s, 112 hits allowed, and 71 walks in 141 innings.

In 2009, with Norfolk in the International League, Hernandez has 40 k’s, 28 hits allowed, and 9 walks in 30.2 innings.

If the O’s want to promote Hernandez to the Majors at some-point during the 2009 and give him an opportunity to start – there is nothing wrong with that. However, based on the options that can exist for the 2010 rotation… I think Hernandez projects better in the O’s pen.

Unless he is injured this year, Hernandez probably figures to pitch at least 140 innings for the 4th consecutive year. In 2010, having a guy that has that level of arm strength, and has shown a propensity for getting strikeouts can be a valuable weapon for the team. Maybe he starts the year in long-relief, and ends the year as the potential closer?

Ultimately though, the reasons for optimism about 2010, and especially about 2011 is that the trio of Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and Brian Matusz are not that far away from helping this team.

Tillman was 11-4, with a 3.18 era last year at Bowie.

In 135.2 innings, he allowed 115 hits, 64 walks, with 154 k’s.

At AAA Norfolk, the 21 year old is again having a high degree of success.

Tillman is in-line to obtain his 4th win of the season tonight.

For the year, Tillman has pitched 31 innings, allowed 24 hits, 12 walks with 37 k’s.

He has a 2.03 era.

He still needs to improve his control… still needs to get ahead with his fast-ball and show an ability to work deeper in games… but he is not far from being able to help the Orioles rotation.

He does not have to be pitcher he can ultimately be, to still be one of the best 5 options for the O’s.

If you bring him up, and he is not a finished product… you look at him as a 4th or 5th starter and grade him on those terms. As he matures, he will move up the rotation-ladder.

Arrieta was 6-5, with a 2.87 era last year at Frederick.

In 113 innings, he allowed 80 hits, 51 walks, with 120 k’s.

He gained further experience with the US Olympic team last August.

At AA Bowie, the 23 year old is achieving ok results, even with inconsistent outings.

Arrieta has pitched 26.1 innings, allowed 24 hits, 13 walks, with 32 k’s.

He has a 3.42 era, and is 3-1.

There is talk that Arrieta is ‘struggling,’ a bit… The O’s should be so thank-full if his struggles consist of less than a hit per IP, and more than a k per IP….

If he can string together 5-7 starts where he regularly works into at least the 6th inning… he will force his way-up to the O’s prior to the end of 2009.

He will come to Spring Training 2010 with a chance to make the roster.

2008 1st round pick Brian Matusz is just 22, and has made a total of 6 starts at Single A Frederick.

In those starts, Matusz has pitched 34 innings, allowed 34 hits, 12 walks, with 46 k’s.

He has a 3.18 era, and is 2-2.

In 3 of his last 4 starts he has gone at least 6 innings, allowing 2er or less, with at least 8 k’s.

Depending on what the Orioles Player Development staff wants Matusz to achieve at Frederick, the young-lefty could be ready to move-up to Bowie by the end of May.

Based on how the O’s are handling Wieters with regards to the Super 2 status, I believe you can infer the O’s will look to handle Matusz similarly in 2010.

If that is accurate, the internal-goal for the O’s will probably be to allow Matusz to finish the 2009 season at Bowie, and shut him down at the end of August, without a September promotion to Baltimore.

Matusz is capable of pitching backwards, and using 4 pitches… I think he could be relatively effective for the O’s now. If the O’s decide to send him to Norfolk to start 2010, and bring him up around June…. He will still have 4 months to help the O’s in the 2010 season, and be poised for a breakout season in 2011.

What is really great, is that there are a number of other names that I could be discussing…. Such as Jason Berken, Brandon Erbe, Zach Britton… or even Chorye Spoone as his rehab continues…

I understand the wait and see crowd… ultimately seeing results at the Major League level is what it is all about.

We know that baseball is a game about failure, and adjustments…. And that most prospects will not make it.

I look at the core that is being developed though, and I see legitimate reasons to believe the O’s will start to look improved by June 2009…. Will be vastly improved in 2010… and will contend in 2011.

Watching this building and development is the enjoyable part.