How Should The Orioles Approach Their Off-Season?

The playoffs are just getting started but Orioles fans are in full-blown off-season mode. With that in mind, many people are throwing their hat into the ring and being “internet GMs” and are discussing what they would do this off-season in terms of building the team. Anyone familiar with me knows that I personally enjoy the Winter and looking at all the potential moves, so for fun I’ve outlined a plan of my own.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

First of all, I am not necessarily going to do this based solely off of what I personally would do. For example, I would make a legit run at Jason Heyward but that’s not a move the Orioles are likely to do, so I am going to leave that out. In fact, I do not feel the Orioles will give out a nine-figure deal to anyone this Winter. There is nothing in their history to suggest that they will do this. Yes, they reportedly offered Teixeira a huge nine figure deal but that was a special circumstance (he was from here, etc..) and it is not as if they offered him enough money for him to even consider it, so I am not sure how much that really counts anyway. So, I am not going to have one of those on my team.

Secondly, since they haven’t shown any legit willingness to sign a player in his pre arbitration years, I am going to leave out deals for Gausman and Schoop, even though I would personally attempt to sign both of them this off-season.

There are also going to be a few assumptions made here as well. For example, I am assuming Wieters will not accept a qualifying offer (QO). I fully recognize that he might accept it and if he does, I would look to trade him even if it meant eating some of the deal. I think enough teams will trade for him, so I don’t think that’s much of an issue. I am also going to assume that the payroll will not go above $125 million and I even think that number is pushing things.

With that said, let’s get started (These moves are not listed in any particular order of importance).

I am offering a QO to Chris Davis, Chen and Wieters. I do not feel any will accept and the value of the draft pick, for such a down farm system, is too much to pass up. If any accept, they can be dealt and you can get young players back in that fashion. Davis is the only player here I have interest in retaining but I am not sure I will go as high as other teams will.

I would extend Machado. I personally would pursue signing him to a 7-8 year deal but again; I don’t think the Orioles will give out that $100-million+ contract. So, look to sign him to a 5-year deal. That eats up his 3 arbitration years and 2 free agency years. He should make in the area of $30 million dollars for the 3 arbitration years and then he can average $22-25 million for those free agency years. If you can get an option on the deal, even better. The deal I am proposing would break down similar to this:

2016: $5.5 million
2017: $10 million
2018: $15 million
2019: $20 million
2020: $24 million

That is a total of 5 years for $79.5 million. Those are rough numbers but my guess is that is a deal that is in the ballpark. Maybe you can get it done for $75 million or maybe it takes $85 million but it’s in the area. This is a deal that gets Manny a lot of money and allows him to sign a longer-term deal before he hits 30. The hope would be that before the 5 years is up, that the Orioles have a new owner and that the new owner would extend Machado longer if he wanted to stay – but at least this keeps him here for longer than his service time and buys the Orioles some time.

A trade I would look to make is sending Chris Tillman to the Padres for Yonder Alonso. Since I don’t feel the Orioles will keep Davis, I think Alonso is a guy that represents a solid back up option for the team. He has never been a guy to hit for much power but he plays 99 games a year in Petco, AT&T and Chavez Revine. Those are 3 of the best pitchers parks in baseball. Perhaps a move to a more hitter friendly park will get those power numbers up. More importantly, he is a very solid OBP guy with a good walk rate (usually around 10%) and a solid average. He is also a very solid defensive first baseman. It also doesn’t hurt that he is Machado’s brother in law, so keeping your best player happy after losing his close friend in Davis isn’t the worst thing. Losing Tillman might hurt and I do think he will bounce back some next year but I do think his ceiling is only so high, especially pitching at OPACY. The move to Petco would do him very well and he could thrive in that ballpark. There is a chance Alonso is non-tendered but I think a trade is more likely. There has been talk in SD that he won’t be back, one way or another, next season.

Now, if it were me, I would also look into trading Britton because I think he can bring a lot back. I would also look to dump Hardy for whatever he could bring back. I do not see the Orioles doing either of those things, so I am going to leave that out of here.

There are many free agents I have interest in but I do not think the Orioles will give out a 5+year deal to a pitcher (so bye bye Price, Zimmerman, Cueto and Greinke) and I do not think, as I have said, that they will give out a 9 figure deal, so bye bye to Davis, Heyward, Upton, Cespedes and likely Alex Gordon. Gordon may not get 9 figures but I think it will be close enough to where the Orioles won’t be a player there.

When looking at the areas of need, a few things stand out. Right now, with the trade of Tillman and letting Chen go via free agency, we obviously need some starters. As I said, I think we can eliminate the major FA starters, which leaves us with the second tier guys. There is a lot of quality in that second tier but some of that are guys I don’t see the team signing. For example, Scott Kazmir is a solid pitcher with excellent peripherals but I don’t see the Orioles putting the 4 years on the table that it will likely take to get him. I think we have seen this team, with the exception of Jimenez, be a team that likes to sign pitchers on shorter-term deals. With that in mind, I would turn my focus to Mat Latos and Brett Anderson.

Latos is coming off a bad year, at least in terms of the traditional stats. However, he was very unlucky. His ERA was almost 5 but his FIp and xFIP were well under 4. His HR rate was higher than normal, which wasn’t helped by a high HR/FB ratio. The BABIP against him was also much higher than his career average. His K rate was still solid, the walk rate was good and he does a good job missing bats and throwing strikes. So, I think he is a good target. Since he lost 10 games this year and had an ERA of close to 5, I would anticipate him signing a 1-year deal to get his value back up. A 1-year deal for 7-10 million sounds about right. With the Orioles defense behind him and him being a decent GB pitcher, he could very well be interested in Baltimore on a 1 year deal even though pitchers traditionally don’t love coming to OPACY for 1 year. He is also 28 years old, which is a big plus as well. I would actually be ok with giving him a 2-3 year deal but I would guess that he would prefer to not sign a deal longer than 1 year because he can’t get the money he likely feels he is worth coming off of a normal very good year for him.

Next is Brett Anderson. Anderson has struggled with injuries in the past but he was healthy this year and threw 180 innings. His K rate wasn’t that high but the walk rate was good and his GB rate is astoundingly good. Again, since he has the injury history and his numbers were good but not great in 2015, I would think a 2 year deal for 8-10 million a year would get it done and again, with our defense, the Orioles could be a very enticing team for him to go. A good 2 year stretch here puts him at 30 years old, which is plenty young enough for him to get a solid 3-5 year deal.

The Orioles will likely be losing O’Day although I acknowledge that he is the free agent most likely to be kept. I am not one that likes to spend big money in the pen unless you are getting younger elite arms with high K rates and low walk rates. That being said, the Orioles pen is set up nicely next year with Britton, Givens, Wright, Brach and perhaps Bundy. I am hoping they non-tender Matusz this time around. With that said, I would look to buy low on 2 guys that have been stud relievers in the past and are battling back from injuries. The first guy is Neftali Feliz. Feliz has the fastball back. His velocity was better in 2015 than in 2014. His K rate was up and while the FIP wasn’t great, it was a lot better than his ERA. As someone who will just be 28, I think he represents an excellent buy low target and if you are a reliever, you would have to love the idea of pitching for Showalter.

With the same concept in mind, I would also sign Eric O’Flaherty. He hasn’t been good lately but he has been battling back from injuries. An off-season of him being healthy could do wonders for him. He has been an elite lefty reliever in the past that boasts a very good GB rate. He is another buy low guy that could be a huge get for the team. Like Feliz, a 1-year deal for less than 3 million and perhaps an option year attached seems like a likely deal for him. In fact, you may even be able to get him on a minor league, ST invite type contract.

Moving on to the offense, I would re-sign Pearce to a 1-year deal for 4.5 million. Having him back as a guy who plays good defense in multiple positions and his ability to hit lefties makes him a worthwhile utility player for 300-400 at bats.

A trade I would look into making would be with the Marlins and Marcell Ozuna. There is some bad blood there and a lot of talk this past season about how he could be dealt. I think there are some attitude issues with him but he is young (25 next month) and I would hope a fresh start would get him in a better mind set. The Orioles don’t have a lot to trade but they do have some intriguing guys in the lower minors and some players who could help them. Even a guy like Brach, who obviously is in the pen right now, could be involved. If that were to happen, obviously a move to replace him is needed but the point is, I think the Orioles would have enough to trade for him and at his age and service time, I think he is a worthwhile acquisition. Another name to consider here could be Bundy too. See how he does in these upcoming throwing sessions and how he reacts to them but if so, he could be a trade chip for a player like Ozuna.

I would also look into signing Colby Rasmus. I figure he can be had on a 2/18 deal and that is probably a decent contract for him. He provides power (something you are losing with Davis), a good walk rate and decent defense. He is a guy I wanted the team to acquire this past off-season and while there are other guys I would prefer to see the Orioles sign, I don’t think they put out enough money to do it.

So, we end up with this (estimated salaries in parentheses):

1st – Alonso $3.5M
2nd – Schoop $500K
SS – Hardy $12.5M
3rd – Machado $5.5M
LF – Rasmus $9M
CF – Jones $16.33M
RF – Ozuna $500K
C – Joseph $500K
DH – Pearce  $4.5M

Bench:
Flaherty – $2.2M
Cleavenger – $500K
Lough – $1M
Alvarez(or maybe Reimold)- $500K

Rotation:
Latos – $9M
Anderson – $10M
Ubaldo – $13M
Gonzalez – $4M
Gausman – $500K

Bullpen:
Britton – $5.5M
Givens – $500K
Feliz – $2M
O’Flaherty – $1M
Brach – $1.8M(if he isn’t dealt)
Wright – $500K
Drake/TJ/Wilson, etc…- $500K

Now, this is only about $100 million in payroll. So, maybe they go out and sign another FA reliever, a better bat off the bench than Alvarez or Reimold and/or maybe they get a better OF option than Rasmus if a guy like Gordon does get a little less than we think coming off an injury plagued year. But for the most part, I just don’t see that happening. This team has the chance to be pretty good, especially if you get the Marcell Ozuna from 2014, where he had a WAR of about 4.

It certainly would be a very good defensive team with a solid pitching staff but it’s a risky team with guys with some injury history. However, with the Orioles not willing to give out the big contracts, having a poor farm system and with the team stuck with the contracts they do have, I think those are the risks you will have to take and hope they pan out.

In the mean time, you get your 6 or 7 draft picks in the top 100 for the upcoming June draft, spend the money there and hope to quickly build your farm system back up.