One Bold Prediction For Each Major Conference Heading Into League Play

Big East – Six Teams Will Make The NCAA Tournament

The Big East is a conference turned upside down right now. The league entered the week with three teams ranked inside the Top-12, and all three of them dropped their conference openers. While it’s only one game lost for each team, this was much needed for some of the other programs in the league. That is due to the fact that aside from UConn, Marquette and Creighton, no program had played consistent enough basketball during non-conference play to really make you feel good about their NCAA Tournament chances.  

One team that the narrative has definitely changed for is Providence. The Friars have a legitimate home court advantage, that was displayed on Tuesday night, when the Friars dominated #6 ranked Marquette 72-57. This was Providence’s second statement home win over a team currently ranked in the Top 25 this season, considering Providence did the same thing to Wisconsin in the Gavitt Games. The program is a ridiculous 47-3 straight up in their last 50 home games. Kim English’s team should hear their names called on Selection Sunday.  

Villanova picked up their biggest win of the season so far on Wednesday, coming back from a 14 point second half deficit to defeat Creighton. It has been an up and down second season so far for Kyle Neptune that has now featured wins over Creighton, Memphis, North Carolina and Texas Tech. At its surface that should be good enough for Villanova to make the big dance. However, they also have losses to the likes of St. Joes, Drexel and Pennsylvania. The key for the Wildcats will be to avoid those losses during conference play.  

The other team really in the mix is Rick Pitino’s St. John’s Red Storm. While it has been somewhat of a disappointing start for the Johnnies relative to expectations, they did start Big East Conference play off with a statement with a convincing victory over Xavier. Pitino’s team’s usually get better as the season goes on, and I expect the Johnnies to do enough to make the big dance. There are plenty of chances for quality wins in the Big East.  

The Big East has had six teams selected to the big dance twice since the realignment of the league prior to the 2013-2014 season. I can see the same thing happening this season, plus teams like Seton Hall and Butler are in the mix as well, which is not something I expected to say as recently as only two weeks ago.  

Big 12 – BYU Will Not Lose A Home Game During Conference Play

Prior to the start of the season, the Big 12 has been the best College Basketball Conference in the country for a while now. They only got better after conference realignment adding the likes of Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and Central Florida. While I did enter the season thinking BYU was somewhat underrated and Mark Pope is the perfect coach to go into the Big 12 with, these Cougars are even better than expected. BYU has started the season 10-1, with their only loss coming in a close one on the road to their rivals Utah.  

The Cougars have had some impressive efforts during non-conference play, including 74-65 home victory over the defending National Runners Up San Diego State. That game wasn’t even as close as the score indicated, and it gave me a thought. It is going to be very difficult for Big 12 Opponents to go into the Marriott Center during Conference play and win. Any West Coast Conference Basketball program will tell you just how difficult it is to go into that building and earn a win. Just ask Gonzaga.  

The Cougars have been one of the better three-point shooting teams in all of College Basketball this season, ranking second in the country with 12.4 made threes per game. BYU has four players playing consistent minutes, who are currently shooting over 40% from deep. While teams like Kansas and Houston are among the best in the country and will be fighting all season at the top of the conference, I do think BYU matches up pretty well against both teams. Especially if they are hitting shots from deep, which they have consistently done, especially in their home building. Kansas will not be coming to the Marriott Center this season, but the biggest test for the Cougs will come early in conference play on January 23rd against Houston.  

If BYU can find a way to win that game at home I’m confident they can secure a top four finish in the Big 12, in large part to one of the best home court advantages in all of College Basketball.  Mark Pope has a really good mix of older and younger players at his disposal, and people could even be talking about BYU as a second weekend team by the time we get to March.  

Pac-12 – Utah Is The Second Best Team In The Conference

Craig Smith didn’t enter his third season in Salt Lake City with a ton of expectations. The Runnin’ Utes only won a combined 28 games in his first two seasons, and were selected seventh in the preseason media poll. A combination of the Utes being much better than expected and the rest of the league outside of Arizona being pretty disappointing have gotten us here. Utah collected some quality wins during the non-conference portion of their schedule, including over #17 BYU, Wake Forest and a true road win at Saint Mary’s. In addition, their only losses are to two quality teams in Houston and St. John’s.  

Forward Brandon Carlson isn’t only one of the better players in the Pac-12, but is among the best big men in the entire country. The fifth year Senior is averaging 16.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game to lead the way for the Utes. This is a player that has scored over 1440 points in his career, but is still looking to play in his first NCAA Tournament game. That should be something that changes this March.  

Despite a somewhat disappointing first two years for Smith since he took over at Utah, many forget just how good of a coach he was at Utah State. Going into the 2018-2019 season, Utah State was in the midst of a seven season NCAA Tournament drought. They hadn’t finished in the top three of their conference since that 2011 season. That 18-19 season was Smith’s first season in Logan, and he immediately got them to the top of the conference and back in the NCAA Tournament. In addition, Utah State won the 2020 Mountain West Tournament and would have gone back dancing if it wasn’t for the COVID-19 Pandemic. Plus, they made it back again in 2021. Coach Smith led Utah State to a combined 74 wins from 2019-2021, and it was only a matter of time before he really started to get things up and running at Utah.  

This Utes team has a great combination of size led by Carlson, shooting led by Gabe Madsen (shooting 45.8% from three) and passing led by Rollie Worster (Third in the Pac-12 in Assists with 6.3 per game) They have great chemistry, and look as good as anyone in the conference not named Arizona right now.  

Utah will open Pac-12 Conference play with a pretty manageable first three games against the likes of the Washington schools at home and at Arizona State. Then they will head to Tucson on January 6th to play their biggest game in recent memory against Arizona. It is good to see Utah Basketball back on the map, as this program earned top five seeds in the NCAA Tournament in back to back years in 2015-2016, which isn’t that long ago. Coach Smith will also be right there for Pac-12 Coach of the Year, by the time the season ends.  

ACC – Wake Forest Will Win Their First NCAA Tournament Game Since 2010

There was only one high-major program in all of College Basketball who decided to make a coaching change during the 2020 offseason, in the midst of the pandemic. That was Wake Forest bringing in East Tennessee State Head Coach Steve Forbes. This was a great hire for a program with a ton of history, and it is only a matter of time until it starts getting even more recognition.  

Forbes is 58-42 overall at the halfway point of his fourth season in Winston Salem. He took home the 2022 ACC Coach of the Year Award, however that season ended in somewhat disappointing fashion with the metrics not loving Wake and keeping them out of the big dance. This is a program that hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2017 and hasn’t won a game in the big dance since 2010. That is something I expect to change this season. There isn’t a program in all of College Basketball that has been better in the Transfer Portal then Wake. From Alondes Williams, to Tyree Appleby, to now Hunter Sallis and Boopie Miller, Forbes has made it a talent to get players from the portal and immediately gets them to their ceiling.  

After averaging 4.5 points per game last season at Gonzaga, Sallis has turned into one of the better players in the ACC, averaging 18.0 points per game. He also leads the conference in minutes per game, with 34.9 Wake has one of the better backcourts in the country led by Sallis, Miller and Cameron Hildreth.  

The scary part for the rest of the ACC is that Wake will be getting back sharpshooter Domari Monsanto, which will really help their overall depth and shooting. The Deacs have been playing really good basketball since another Gonzaga Transfer Efton Reid was ruled eligible, only adding to their overall quality personnel. In a wide-open ACC, this is a team that can make a ton of noise as a serious dark horse. 

Big Ten – Conference Will Have At Least Three Second Weekend Teams For The First Time Since 2019

It is no secret that the Big Ten as a Conference has been struggling in March recently. The conference has not won a National Title since Michigan State in 2000, and hasn’t even had a team in the Final 4 since Sparty in 2019. Since that 2019 season, the conference has had teams with really good regular seasons that have earned relatively high seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Just to have the walls come crashing in by the time we get to the month of March.  

For example, Illinois earned a #1 seed in the 2021 big dance and couldn’t make it out of the second weekend. That same season, Ohio State earned a #2 seed and was shocked in the first round by #15 seeded Oral Roberts. That’s not even mentioning Purdue’s historic loss as a number one seed to Fairleigh Dickinson last season, and the Boilers also falling to Saint peters the season prior. While it hasn’t been the smoothest of starts so far for the Big Ten, I do think the conference is better right now than most would realize.  

Purdue is the clear-cut number one team in the country after their monster win over Arizona this past weekend. Purdue also has wins over the likes of #6 Marquette, #8 Tennessee, and #15 Gonzaga to make up the best resume in the country. While they will have to prove it in the month of March, that resume is something that needs to be taken seriously. In addition, this looks like the best Illinois team since that one in 2021, led by one of the best wing duos in the country in Terranace Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask. Brad Underwood coached teams have made the big dance in seven out of the last nine seasons and it’s only a matter of time until he breaks through to a second weekend.  

Teams like Wisconsin and Ohio State are also really well coached and have been better than most expected to start this season. Those are both teams I can see winning at least one game in the big dance if not more. Then there is Michigan State, who has been very disappointing relative to their Top-10 preseason expectations. However, the Spartans finally looked like the team we were expecting on Saturday against Baylor and I still trust Tom Izzo’s team to get things rolling in conference play.  

There will be at least three Big Ten teams in the second weekend of the big dance for the first time since 2019, and the conference is in much better shape than most realize right now.  

SEC – Kentucky & Auburn Will Also Both Make Second Weekends of the Tournament for The First Time Since 2019 

Looking around the landscape of SEC Basketball right now, there are two teams that clearly stick out the most. While the conference is currently in excellent shape and there is a good chance they can get as many as Nine NCAA Tournament teams, Kentucky and Auburn are the two teams that have the highest upside. It is understandable why Kentucky fans have been somewhat frustrated with John Calipari recently, as the Wildcats have only won a single game in the big dance in the last three seasons.  

With that being said this is the best team we’ve seen in Lexington since that 2019 Elite 8 squad, and I only expect them to get better. Kentucky’s Freshman class is living up to the lofty expectations and thensome, and they are only getting better as the season goes on. It was very impressive that Kentcky found themselves trailing 72-71 with 5:05 to go, after holding a comfortable lead for the majority of the game and still finding a way to win.  

Four different Freshman for the Wildcats scored in double figures, and while there is a large emphasis on age in today’s game of College Basketball, if anyone can win with younger players it’s John Calipari. Add in veterans like Antonio Reaves, Tre Mitchell and Adou Thiero and the pieces are there for a deep tournament run. 

The other SEC team that has really caught my attention recently is Auburn. Bruce Pearl had his Tigers ranked as the #1 team in the country as recently as two years ago, but things flamed out shortly after that. The season couldn’t even result in a second weekend appearance in the big dance. This Auburn team however, has the ceiling that team did not. That is in large part due to their Guard play and specifically Freshman Aiden Holloway. Holloway was sensational in Sunday’s statement victory with 15 points and 6 assists. 

It seems to me that scoring the ball offensively has just come way easier to this Auburn team, and he is a big reason why. The Freshman is also shooting 39.7% from three on the season. Fifth year Senior Jaylin Williams, has also been super valuable to the team, stuffing the stat sheet and making winning plays all over the court. With an SEC Player of the Year candidate in Johni Broome and an elite Coach in Pearl, this Auburn team is undoubtedly a threat to win the SEC.