One Overvalued College Basketball Team In Each Power Conference

Big East-  Villanova

The 2022-2023 season marked the first time that Villanova has missed the NCAA Tournament since 2012 and if that happens again this season, the spotlight will really be bright on the most successful program in College Basketball over the past decade. The one thing that can directly be pointed towards Villanova’s struggles was last season marked the official start of the post Jay Wright era. The legendary Coach won two National Titles, and made four Final 4’s during his time at Villanova and his former Assistant Coach Kyle Neptune was brought in to fill his massive shoes.

Although Villanova caught some very bad breaks early on in the season, there was anyone who expected things to unravel as quickly as they did. The Wildcats started last season ranked as the #16 ranked team in the country, but lost five out of their first seven games to start non-conference play. Although injuries can be labeled as a reason why these struggles occurred without Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore, there was still plenty of talent at Neptune’s disposal to get off to a better start. Some of these losses included games Villanova should quite frankly never lose to, including against Portland and Temple.

This offseason, Neptune did bring in a ton of talent from the Transfer Portal, including Tyler Burton from Richmond, TJ Bamba from Washington State, and Hakim Hart from Maryland. While these players might give Villanova an upgrade in overall talent level, it is a massive change to all of a sudden go all in on transfers, when the Villanova system of developing players for multiple seasons was so successful under Wright. Villanova will return guys like Justin Moore, Eric Dixon, Mark Armstrong and Jordan Longino to go along with these transfers, however that is a lot of mouths to feed for Neptune.

To Villanova’s credit they did play better last season with a healthy Moore and Whitmore, ending the season winning 7 out of their last 10 games. One under discussed topic is that this team did lose some very important contributors over the course of the last few seasons, including Caleb Daniels, Brandon Slater and a first round NBA Draft pick in Whitmore. There is plenty of talent here for Villanova to be successful, however after how poorly things went last season I’ll have to see it before I believe it.

Big 12 – Baylor

Scott Drew put the exclamation point on the most successful rebuild in the history of College Basketball, when the Bears cut down the nets and won the program’s first ever National Title in 2021. A little less than three years later, there is only one remaining player from that team that played consistent minutes in Jonathan Tchamwa- Tchatchoua, and the Bears have lost four of their five starters from last season. The big man should be fully recovered from a devastating knee injury early in 2022, and ready for a full workload with Flo Thamba running out of eligibility.

Over the last two seasons since the National Title, Baylor has been successful earning a #1 and #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and winning a game in the big dance in each of the last two seasons. This season however, is the one where the losses might finally catch up to the Baylor program. The Bears will not return their trio of Guards from last season, including Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer and NBA First Round Pick Keyonte George.

These three players averaged a combined 45.6 points per game and made up arguably the best backcourt in all of College Basketball. Despite Jalen Bridges and Tchamwa-Tchatoua returning to school and some quality transfers, that is a ridiculous amount of production to replace. Transfers RayJ Dennis, and Jayden Nunn alongside Five-Star Freshman JaKobe Walter, should give Scott Drew plenty of options in the backcourt, but it is unreasonable to expect those guys to be anything close to the production that Baylor lost from last season.

The key to this Baylor team could be the health of Langston Love, who was also a part of that National Title team as someone who played sparingly off the bench. Love averaged 6.3 points in only 16.6 minutes per game, but suffered an eye injury in late February and missed some time at the end of the season. Now, the very skilled Guard should be fully healthy and his ability to stay on the court could be a massive component to this Baylor team’s season. With that being said in a very difficult Big 12 Conference, this Baylor team will take a slight step back and will really feel the effects of missing a backcourt trio as good as Flagler/ Cryer/ George.

Pac 12 – USC

Andy Enfield’s team will have the spotlight on them as soon as the season starts, with USC opening their season up in Las Vegas against Kansas State, as the biggest marquee game on College Basketball’s opening night slate. There are plenty of reasons to be excited about this Trojans team, arguably the best player in the Pac-12 back in Boogie Ellis, a top five Freshman in Isaiah Collier, and of course Bronny James. The Trojans have been one of the more underrated programs in the past half-decade, making it to each of the last three NCAA Tournaments and sending a handful of players to the NBA during that span.

While both of those things should continue this season, I don’t view USC as the clear-cut team to beat in the Pac-12 this season. The Trojans will lose some key pieces from last season’s team, including Drew Peterson, who provided USC with someone who can score the ball from anywhere on the court at any tie. In addition, Reece Dixon-Waters looked poised for a breakout following the end of his Freshman season, but after an up and down Sophomore season, decided to transfer to San Diego State.

The loss of Tre White to Louisville late in the offseason, was also a move that lowered the Trojans in my book. White was a player that looked ready to build off a promising Freshman season averaging 9 points and 5 rebounds per game as a Freshman.  Enfield’s best teams at USC have used their depth as a major advantage, usually having 8 or 9 different guys that can make a major impact whenever they step onto the floor and that is not a strength I see with this team.

The Trojans will return some key role players including Kobe Johnson, Joshua Morgan and Vincent Iwuchukwu, however depth is a concern behind the dynamic duo of Ellis and Collier. This USC team should be ranked entering the season and will most likely be in the NCAA Tournament. With that being said, I do think other teams in the Pac-12 like Arizona and Oregon can also be right in the mix with the Trojans competing at the top of the Pac-12.

ACC – North Carolina

There aren’t many teams that will enter this season with more pressure on them, than Hubert Davis’ North Carolina Tar Heels. This team made history last season, being the first team in the history of College Basketball to miss the NCAA Tournament, after entering the season as the #1 ranked team in the country. The one noticeable loss from North Carolina this offseason was polarizing scoring Guard Caleb Love, moving on from the program and transferring to Arizona. Many people think that this will fix North Carolina’s problems, not having someone who shot the basketball with very low efficiency and had a ton of ups and downs during his time at Chapel Hill. While it was probably best for both sides to move on, I don’t think that all of the Tar Heel’s problems will be fixed just because Love is no longer in the picture.

There aren’t many better duo’s returning to school in College Basketball this season than R.J. Davis and Armando Bacot. These two players have 233 career games at North Carolina, showing experience will definitely not be an issue for this team. My concern about North Carolina however, is since Hubert Davis took over for Roy Williams in the Spring of 2021, this program has had one great month and the rest has been very disappointing. It was clear from very early on last season that something was just off with this Tar Heels team and they were never able to get things figured out. This included losing both games to Duke, including at home with an NCAA Tournament berth basically on the line, dropping out of their last 10 games to close out ACC Regular Season Conference play, and getting blown out by Virginia in the ACC Tournament. Every time North Carolina looked like they had turned a corner last season, they would immediately take a step back.

The Transfer Additions of Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram should also provide nice experience, and there aren’t many teams in the ACC that have more top notch talent than this North Carolina team. With that being said, similarly to Villanova this is a situation where I’ll have to see it before I believe it and this is a team that needs to prove they can win and handle expectations more consistently.

SEC – Alabama

One of the more underrated storylines of the offseason was just how much talent Alabama lost from last season’s team that earned the number one overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and won both the SEC Regular Season and Conference Tournament Titles. The Crimson Tide will lose six out of their top 8 leading scorers from a season ago, which is a lot of production to replace. Included in those losses was the #3 overall pick in the NBA Draft Brandon Miller, alongside another First Round Draft Pick in Noah Clowney.

Losing those guys didn’t necessarily come as a surprise to anyone, however it was the loss of Center Charles Bediako, that not everyone who follows this program saw coming. Bediako established himself as one of the premiere rim protectors in the country last season, and had he returned would have been one of the top players in the SEC. Not having one of the best shot blockers in the country, will be something Alabama misses and with guys like Jahvon Quinnerly, Jaden Bradley and Nimari Burnett also not returning, Nate Oats will have almost a completely new roster at his disposal. The two prior times that Alabama had won the SEC under Oats they were an elite defensive team, and without Bediako I don’t see that being the case again this season.

Point Guard Mark Sears, will be the best returning player for the Crimson Tide and should be one of the top Point Guards in the SEC. In addition, Alabama added a highly touted transfer in Grant Nelson from North Dakota State, who was one of the late risers in the NBA Draft Process and should have a massive opportunity to showcase his skillset in Oat’s offense. My concern with Alabama however, is just how much they lost from last season’s team not only in terms of players but also the Assistant Coaches on Oats’ staff.

In unprecedented fashion, Alabama lost three of their former assistants to other Head Coaching Jobs around the country including Bryan Hodgson to Arkansas State, Antoine Petteway to Kennesaw State and Charlie Henry to Georgia Southern. These were three key pieces to Oats’ staff who will also be missed and in a loaded SEC, I think that will come back to bite this Crimson Tide team.

Big Ten – Indiana

While there is no denying just how good of a job Mike Woodson has done during his first two seasons in Bloomington, this season will be his second major test on the job. Woodson’s first big accomplishment when he arrived in the Spring of 2021, was getting guys like Trayce-Jackson Davis, Race Thompson, and some of the other players who came to Indiana to play for Archie Miller to come back to play for him.

That is exactly what the former NBA Coach did, and it directly led to the Hoosiers winning games in the NCAA Tournament in back to back years for the first time since 2012 and 2013. This will mark the first season for Woodson without Jackson-Davis, who established himself as one of the best Hoosiers in recent memory, scoring over 2200 points in his four year college career. Indiana also lost a first round NBA Draft pick in Jaden Hood-Schifino, who was one of the best Guards in the Big Ten a season ago, and was able to win games by himself at times in 2023.

Indiana will bring in two prominent players to help replace that production in Five Star Freshman Mackenzie Mgbako and former Five Star Freshman Kel’el Ware from Oregon. While both of these players’ potential are through the roof, there is no guarantee they will be able to come close to matching what Jackson-Davis and Hood-Schifino were able to do last season. Ware only averaged 6.6 points per game last season in limited playing time for the Ducks last season. In addition, Mgbako was originally supposed to be playing for Duke, but likely realized he wouldn’t have had the playing time he desired on a team with so many other players returning.

Although Indiana will have some guys like Xavier Johnson and Trey Galloway returning, I don’t love the mix of this Hoosiers team especially compared to the last two seasons under Woodson. Although Indiana should be an NCAA Tournament team, I think they are more likely to finish towards the middle of the Big Ten than the top, with so much talent lost from NCAA Tournament Hoosier teams in each of the last two seasons.