It goes without saying that 2020 has been a year to forget. As a shortened 2020 MLB season quickly approached, for obvious reasons, I wasn’t enthusiastic about the idea. I wasn’t cheering against baseball, I spend 365 days a year watching/thinking about/writing about/podcasting about baseball, but a small bit of “normalcy” doesn’t fix the glaring issues we currently face as a society.
You didn’t come here to read about politics or viruses, or anything other than Baltimore Orioles talk, so I’ll stop there and say despite everything else going on, I did in fact greatly enjoy watching the 2020 MLB regular season, especially Orioles baseball.
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In a normal season, I anticipated being checked out by June. In this shortened season, I figured to be solely focused on watching the San Diego Padres, Chicago White Sox, or a team I’ve always had a soft spot for in the Cincinnati Reds, within a month, but the 2020 Baltimore Orioles have kept my attention across their full 60-game slate and now that the season is over, they have left me wanting more.
Why? Pat Valaika.
I’m kidding! I rather go back to talking about politics than continue talking about Valaika, but this Orioles team continued to prove me wrong all season long. The quality of play on the field was questionable on a lot of nights, but for the first time in many years, I’m preparing to enter a long, cold winter with optimism about the Orioles.
That’s a dangerous word and is usually more like a longing for baseball again versus genuine optimism, but not this year. I have genuine optimism about the direction the Orioles are heading in.
Whether you are building a home, creating a relationship, playing with building blocks (as my one-year old is now finding out) or running a professional baseball team, a solid foundation is key. Buying a championship is easy, a coward’s way that doesn’t command much respect, but building from the ground up takes skill, dedication, and a lot of patience.
Building a championship also takes whatever secret elixir the Orioles are giving to their young players in Bowie.
The organization has climbed the ranks to as high as 8th on MLB Pipeline’s list of top farm systems, a ranking we haven’t seen in quite some time. All of that potential doesn’t mean much if it never amounts to anything and while there will be many misses down on the farm, we have already witnessed a few successes from the “first wave.”
Over the past two years, I may have missed five or six games involving Ryan Mountcastle. Despite that, and my tendency over the years to be even higher on Mountcastle than most, he has exceeded expectations on the diamond.
The rookie appeared in 35 games, finishing second on the team in Wins Above Replacement (0.9) and posting a .333/.386/.492 slash line with five home runs, five doubles, and a 139 wRC+. He also ranked in the 79th percentile in sprint speed. Yes, Ryan Mountcastle has some wheels.
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE WALKS!? (insert Cam Newton sliding down the bench gif) Mountcastle posted a 7.9% walk rate. And that’s with his extremely aggressive approach at the plate. There is still more work to be done there, but the body language this season tells me he knows what he is doing wrong and he isn’t happy about it. I think the walk rate will be sustainable over a full season.
Oh yeah, the 2021 American League Rookie of the Year can also play a decent left field. Maybe, just maybe, the relentless discussions about the walk rate and defense will quiet down. The Orioles have a special talent on their hands here and I don’t think I’m getting ahead of myself when I say that after a 35 game sample size. Mike Elias agrees.
There was also the emergence of Keegan Akin, who also defied expectations, and Dean Kremer, who put together a handful of respectable starts to begin his major league career. Akin finished 2020 as the Orioles fWAR leader among pitchers, while Kremer’s back-to-back big outings against New York showed me enough to peak my interest in 2021.
There is a clear method to Mike Elias and his madness and he showed us a bit of that this season. When these prospects are ready, they will put on a Baltimore Orioles uniform. There isn’t going to be a rush with anyone Elias views as a key piece to a winning club.
We may not see Yusniel Diaz or Michael Baumann out of the gate next season and we may have to wait a while to see even prospects like Rylan Bannon, Ryan McKenna, or Zac Lowther, some of those next tier guys under Diaz and Baumann. That’s ok.
This leads me to my next point and that’s the fact that the Orioles can find value and the occasional surprise where we least expect it.
Hanser Alberto, Pedro Severino, Rio Ruiz, Renato Nunez, and Pat Valaika were all waiver claims and all contributed in a meaningful way in 2020 (also in 2019 for most of these names). There were slumps, there’s no dismissing that, but overall this group performed well.
Alberto proved that 2019 was no fluke and he’s a bonafide major league starter. Severino went from a once-heralded prospect in the Nationals organization who couldn’t hit, to posting back-back-back seasons of very similar offensive numbers (.261 average/ 94 wRC+). Valaika went from seasons with a wRC+ of 9 and 34 to 112 this season!
Valaika is one of the worst shortstops in all of baseball (whether you look at Baseball Savant’s Infield Outs Above Average numbers or just have functional eyeballs), but the Orioles found value in his bat. None of these guys may be around in two years, but the confidence in finding very cheap pieces and turning them into valuable bench/utility pieces is high.
On the pitching side, Travis Lakins and Jorge Lopez were also waiver claims and had their moments this season. Lakins finished second among Orioles relievers with a 0.3 fWAR, a bullpen that ranked 7th in all of baseball in fWAR. As for Lopez, I really didn’t hate his outings. In shorter stints, his repertoire is serviceable as a swing-man/long reliever. He may be a 0.5 WAR player over a full season, but he’s another example of taking someone no one else wanted and finding a bit of value there.
When these pieces are your prominent starters, there are issues. But when they are complimentary pieces on a winning club, their value rises.
Lastly, there was the veteran turnaround.
DJ Stewart began the 2020 season in desperate need of an eye-opening campaign, but came out of the gates going 0-16 at the plate and being sent down to Bowie to hit the reset button.
After nearly a month away, Stewart returned to the starting lineup on September 5th and proceeded to hit seven home runs over his next 10 games and raise his batting average to .265. There are still many questions surrounding Stewart and his future, but he finished 2020 with a 139 wRC+. was worth 0.6 Wins Above Replacement, and has fans willing to give him another opportunity.
The same can be said about Cedric Mullins. Here is another player the vast majority of fans had written off, yet now, Mullins is someone viewed as a viable fourth outfielder and potentially an electric bench piece with his elite glove, speed on the basepaths, and ability to drop a bunt for a base hit seemingly at will or deposit a pitch over the fence. I can’t stress enough how dejected Mullins looked in his at-bats down in the minors last season. Now, that smile is back and it’s great to see.
There was also one of my favorite stories of 2020, John Means. Means had a late start to the season due to a “dead arm” issue, but had us in awe when he came out pumping 95-96 mph in his first start of the season. Unfortunately, the control wasn’t there and the added velocity was largely worthless. Then, his dad passed away. No one would have blamed Means if he had decided to pack it in and be with his family during this time (amidst a global pandemic to boot), but he returned to the rotation and after a few bumps, 2019 John Means came back.
Over his final four starts (three of them against AL East playoff teams), Means logged 23.2 innings, giving up just four earned runs on 12 hits with 30 strikeouts and three walks. Those are dominant numbers against very good teams.
Whatever Brandon Hyde said to Means in their private meeting clearly sparked something, which leads me to my final thought. My respect for Hyde is at an all-time high. I’ve always viewed him as a placeholder until this team is competitive and the organization is ready to pay up for a noted manager. There are still a lot of questions about his managerial decisions and style that I don’t think we can answer yet, but he fights for his guys and led a group who wasn’t supposed to win very many games to a 25-35 season and through competitive games late in the season. I’ve become a big Brandon Hyde fan.
There’s a small light at the end of the tunnel and it’s getting a bit brighter after this season. The Orioles won’t enter the free agent market ready to write big checks, but that doesn’t mean they won’t improve over the offseason. Will they find another Jose Iglesias? Who will be the next Hanser Alberto or Pedro Severino they pull off the waiver heap? How do the Orioles fare in the international market (we can finally be excited about this!)? Stay tuned.
Orioles Analyst
A former high school teacher and coach in the mountains of Virginia, Nick Stevens has been writing about the Baltimore Orioles and their minor league system for five years. When he isn’t at a minor league stadium, he’s enjoying a Wizards game or supporting his alma mater, James Madison University. Co-Host of The Verge.